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Trump finally has the upper hand in Iran
Story by David Blair • 13h • 5 min read
Donald Trump’s strategy could force Iran’s leaders to make concessions in their negotiations - Win McNamee/Getty Images North America
Almost exactly six months after Donald Trump launched his war against Iran, hurling American firepower into a campaign with no clear or consistent goal, the United States has finally adopted a strategy that makes sense in its own terms.
Trump is now trying to break Iran’s regime not with bombs or missiles, but with the “single greatest financial offensive ever marshalled against an adversary”, in the words of Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary.
For once, that is not complete hyperbole.
Scott Bessent, the US treasury secretary, has said America is ‘entering the endgame’ in its war with Iran - Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images North America
The US navy is currently mounting two simultaneous, complementary operations. The first is a total blockade of Iran’s ports, designed to sever the regime’s financial lifeline by preventing it from exporting any oil.
At the same time, American warships are guiding tankers from other countries through the Strait of Hormuz, using the southern channel hugging the coast of Oman. Although they were still running the gauntlet of regular Iranian drone attacks, ships carrying about five million barrels of oil transited the Strait every day in July, according to Windward, a maritime intelligence company.
Since then, the number making it through seems to have risen. The “seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost nine million barrels per day”, said Chris Wright, the US energy secretary, on August 11, crediting the “coordinated efforts of the US military and our Gulf allies”.
The outflow remains well below the daily transit of some 20 million barrels of oil or liquefied natural gas through the Strait before the war began on February 28. But it amounts to a big improvement on the minimal movement of tankers carrying non-Iranian oil at earlier stages of this crisis.
The crucial point is that America has, for the moment, succeeded in wrecking a highly successful Iranian strategy, whereby the Islamic Republic would export its own oil safely while closing the Strait to everyone else. Iran’s latest threats against shipping on Monday show how it has been stung.
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When Trump launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28, America had enough warships in the region to attack Iran, but not to blockade its ports or ensure safe passage for other vessels through the Strait.
Thanks to that astonishing error, Iran managed to export about 1.8 million barrels of oil every day between February 28 and the first ceasefire on April 8, even as American and Israeli air forces were pounding the Islamic Republic around the clock. During this extraordinary period, Iran’s oil sales exceeded its daily average of 1.7 million barrels in 2025.
At the same time, Iran brought the world economy to the brink by preventing all tankers but its own from transiting the Strait, imposing the greatest supply disruption in the history of the oil industry.
When Trump finally blockaded Iran’s ports on April 13, the regime kept the Strait of Hormuz closed and pressed on with strangling the global economy until America signed the “memorandum of understanding” that paused the war on June 18.
But suddenly, America has changed the equation. Its navy is ensuring that other countries are getting their oil safely to world markets, while Iran’s own sales have collapsed. Any tankers wishing to transit the Strait now register with the US navy, which keeps warships, helicopters and aircraft standing by to intercept or respond to any Iranian attacks.
The hard men who run Iran are being forced to confront the prospect of total bankruptcy. Last Wednesday, Abdolnaser Hemmati, the governor of Iran’s central bank, publicly confirmed: “It is a reality that we are not exporting oil.”
The following day, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of parliament and one of the regime’s most senior figures, pointedly said: “No matter how much military power we have, if people are hungry, and we do not have financial circulation and economic growth, we will not endure.”
Iran’s stubborn leaders will not be passive as the regime suffers financial strangulation - Abedin Taherkenareh/Shutterstock
On Friday, Masoud Pezeshkian, the president of Iran, drew the obvious conclusion: “It is better that we bring the war to an end now, as we are in a position of power and dignity.” As if to drive home the urgency, Iran’s currency plunged on Monday to an exchange rate of more than two million to one US dollar.
For the first time, Trump is following a strategy that might present adversaries with little choice except to negotiate and make far more concessions than during previous talks.
But that analysis has to be qualified. First, the US navy’s twin operations – blockading Iran and reopening the Strait – are extraordinarily demanding of ships and personnel, symbolised by the ordeal of the USS Abraham Lincoln, the aircraft carrier that is finally being relieved after one of the longest deployments on record, including 270-plus days at sea without touching land.
For how long can America sustain this monumental effort against Iran – and at what cost elsewhere in the world? The arrival of USS George Washington to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln leaves America without a single carrier deployed in the Pacific.
The USS Abraham Lincoln has been at sea since late last year - US Navy/Reuters
The danger is that Iran’s blinkered and obdurate leaders might believe they can withstand the loss of their oil sales for longer than the US navy can enforce Trump’s blockade.
In any case, the regime will not be passive as it suffers financial strangulation and impending bankruptcy. Iran still possesses a formidable arsenal of ballistic missiles and lethal drones.
The regime could decide to escalate by striking back against its Gulf neighbours, targeting vital oil and gas installations all over again, to trigger renewed mayhem on the energy markets. By wreaking such damage, Iran’s goal would be to force Trump’s Gulf allies to implore him to reach a rapid peace agreement.
Even if Ghalibaf, Pezeshkian and other pragmatists were resolved to seek a quick settlement with America – and to be flexible in any negotiations – they may find it impossible to convince hardliners like Ahmad Vahidi, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, at least until Iran has made one more attempt to escalate its way out of its predicament.
One warning sign came on Monday when Iran threatened to fine or confiscate scores of ships passing through the Strait. The objective was clearly to sabotage America’s effort to restore free navigation and intimidate any tanker owners tempted to take the risk.
What exactly does Trump want from the Iranians? The regime is never going to agree to step down and abolish itself. It might promise to refrain from rebuilding its nuclear plants, which are, in any case, lying in ruins.
But Iran has already made that commitment in the memorandum of understanding, which states that the Islamic Republic will “maintain the current status quo of its nuclear programme”. The destruction of its nuclear installations, meanwhile, was an achievement not of Operation Epic Fury, but of the previous US-Israeli campaign in June last year.
The most likely outcome is that America and Iran will eventually revive the memorandum of understanding of two months ago, perhaps amended to be tougher on Iran. But does Trump know what terms he wishes to change?
Having exhausted every alternative, he has at last embarked on a ruthlessly effective strategy with a chance of delivering. Whether Trump has the will and the consistency to see this through – and what exactly he wants Iran to deliver – remains unclear.
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