More Wars, a Failed State, and a Step Back by the United States
Daniel Byman
Foreign Policy
03.10.2024
One year since the Oct. 7 attack
Someday, probably later rather than sooner, Israel and Hamas will stop shooting at each other. Relieved U.S. officials could claim there is a cease-fire and the worst is behind us, even if limited violence continues. More good things might follow. The Houthis would be reluctant to fight a war on behalf of Hamas that Hamas itself is not fighting, returning their focus to Yemen. The fighting in Lebanon, which surged after Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, might eventually subside.
All this would be a dramatic improvement over the deadly and devastating conflict in Gaza. Yet even a successful cease-fire would not put the Middle East back on the path it was on before Hamas’s attack on Oct. 7, as dismal as that seemed at the time.
Someday, probably later rather than sooner, Israel and Hamas will stop shooting at each other. Relieved U.S. officials could claim there is a cease-fire and the worst is behind us, even if limited violence continues. More good things might follow. The Houthis would be reluctant to fight a war on behalf of Hamas that Hamas itself is not fighting, returning their focus to Yemen. The fighting in Lebanon, which surged after Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, might eventually subside.
All this would be a dramatic improvement over the deadly and devastating conflict in Gaza. Yet even a successful cease-fire would not put the Middle East back on the path it was on before Hamas’s attack on Oct. 7, as dismal as that seemed at the time.
Predicting the future in the Middle East is usually a fool’s game; nevertheless, I’ll propose five major changes that will shape regional dynamics—for the worse, of course—in the years to come.
First, Israel will likely have less tolerance for risk from Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, or other enemies. Israelis have long known that a variety of states, militant groups, and in-between organizations that combine aspects of both—like Hamas and Hezbollah—see Israel as anathema and will target its people and institutions around the world. Before Oct. 7, however, the Israeli government could confidently tell its people that the Hamas leadership in Gaza........
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