Critical Threats and ISW ( Institute for the Study of War) IRAN CRİSİS UPDATES Iran Update, October 6, 2024

Critical Threats and ISW ( Institute for the Study of War)

IRAN CRİSİS UPDATES

Iran Update, October 6, 2024

Western and Middle Eastern outlets have suggested that Israel killed or injured Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani on October 4. Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah have been unable to contact Ghaani since Israel conducted an airstrike targeting Hashem Safi ed Din—the presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah—in Beirut on October 4.[i] Ghaani was in Beirut at the time of the Israeli airstrike, according to the New York Times and Reuters. He was reportedly helping Hezbollah recover from recent Israeli attacks on the group.[ii] An Iranian security official told Reuters that Ghaani was not meeting with Safi ed Din when the Israeli airstrike targeted the latter. Ghaani was last seen publicly when he visited the Hezbollah representative office in Tehran on September 29.[iii] Ghaani has been notably absent from high-profile regime events since then. He was not seen at Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s Friday prayer sermon on October 4 or when Khamenei met with Iranian military leadership on October 6.[v]

Some Iranian officials and state-affiliated me Western and Middle Eastern outlets have suggested that Israel killed or injured Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani on October 4. Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah have been unable to contact Ghaani since Israel conducted an airstrike targeting Hashem Safi ed Din—the presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah—in Beirut on October 4.[i] Ghaani was in Beirut at the time of the Israeli airstrike, according to the New York Times and Reuters. He was reportedly helping Hezbol dia have called on the regime to confirm whether Ghaani is alive. An Iranian parliamentarian claimed on October 6 that Ghaani is “in perfect health” and called on the IRGC to address the rumors of his death or injury in Beirut.[vi] An outlet tied to former IRGC Commander Mohsen Rezaei similarly called on the regime to publish “news that our general is alive and well.”[vii] An IRGC member stationed in Beirut told the New York Times that the regime silence about Ghaani’s status has created “panic among rank-and-file members.”[viii]

Israeli leaders have continued signaling that they will retaliate for the Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said during a visit to the IDF Nevatim airbase that Israel will respond to Iran at an appropriate place and time and in a manner of its choosing.[ix] The Nevatim airbase was one of the sites that Iran targeted in its recent missile attack.[x] Several missiles hit the base, causing minor damages.[xi] Gallant added that the Iranian attack “didn’t even scratch” the capabilities of the IDF Air Force.[xii] Israeli President Isaac Herzog separately said that the Iranian attack “obviously deserves a response” in an interview with Saudi media.[xiii]

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant will reportedly travel to the Washington, DC, to meet with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III on October 9.[xiv] Gallant and Austin are expected to discuss US-Israel security cooperation vis-a-vis Iran.[xv]

Iran appears to be preparing for an Israeli retaliation amid reports that Israel may strike sensitive Iranian sites, such as energy and nuclear infrastructure.

The Iranian State Civil Aviation Organization cancelled all civilian flights in Iran from 2100 local time on October 6 to 0600 local time on October 7.[xvi] These times equate to 1400-2300 ET on October 6.

The Iranian National Tanker Company has vacated empty oil tankers from the main Iranian oil export terminal on Kharg Island.[xvii] Many vessels that had been docked at Bandar Abbas have left as well.[xviii]

Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad met with IRGC Navy officers in Bushehr City to discuss the security of the South Pars gas field, which is the largest Iranian gas field.[xix] Paknejad also visited Kharg Island.[xx]

The IDF continued clearing Hezbollah infrastructure around Maroun al Ras and Odaisseh in southern Lebanon. The IDF 188th Armored Brigade (36th Division) engaged Hezbollah Radwan special operations forces (SOF), killing some and destroying military headquarters and warehouses south of Bint Jbeil .[xxi] The brigade commander said that the IDF is focusing on destroying Hezbollah surface and sub-surface infrastructure in order to prevent Hezbollah attacks into Israel.[xxii] The IDF 1st Golani Brigade (36th Division) destroyed tunnel shafts and ammunition depots near Maroun al Ras.[xxiii] The IDF 35th Paratroopers Brigade (98th Division) seized ”hundreds” of weapons and a vehicle used by Hezbollah Radwan SOF.[xxiv] An anti-aircraft gun was mounted atop the vehicle, according to an Israeli military correspondent.[xxv]

Israeli forces separately located a Hezbollah Radwan SOF warehouse and weapons storage facility in a tunnel complex beneath a civilian home in Odaisseh along the Israel-Lebanon border.[xxvi]

The IDF created a third closed military zone in the Upper Galilee on October 6.[xxvii] The new zone encompasses Malkia, Manara, and Yiftah, which is between the two existing closed zones. The IDF created closed military zones over the Metula area on September 30 and over the Dovev, Tzvion, and Malkia areas on October 1.[xxviii] Hezbollah claimed that Israeli forces tried to cross into Blida, which is adjacent to newly closed Yiftah on October 5.[xxix] Commercially available satellite imagery captured on October 6 indicates that Israeli forces operated near Blida. An Israeli military correspondent reported on October 4 that the IDF is preparing to expand its ground operations in southern Lebanon.[xxx]

The IDF Arabic-language spokesperson called on civilians to evacuate immediately from 25 towns and villages in southern Lebanon on October 6.[xxxi] The spokesperson told residents that they should head north of the Awali River.[xxxii]

The IDF launched a new clearing operation into Jabalia refugee camp, Gaza City, on October 6 in order to disrupt Hamas reconstitution efforts.[xxxiii] The IDF last operated in the area in May 2024, during which the IDF encountered significant resistance from three Hamas battalions.[xxxiv] Hamas has reportedly re-armed and re-organized itself in the four months since the IDF withdrew.[xxxv] An Israeli military correspondent said that the IDF assesses that there are thousands of original Hamas fighters and thousands of new but poorly trained Hamas recruits in the northern Gaza Strip.[xxxvi] The IDF stated that it would operate around Jabalia for as long as is required in order to thoroughly destroy Hamas infrastructure there.[xxxvii] The IDF Air Force struck dozens of militia sites around Jabalia as the IDF 401st and 460th armored brigades encircled the camp.[xxxviii] Israeli forces have engaged dozens of Palestinian fighters around Jabalia since entering the area.[xxxix] The 401st and 460th armored brigades are operating under the command of the 162nd Division, which had been leading operations in Rafah since May 2024.[xl] The IDF Gaza Division will now lead the Givati and Nahal brigades in clearing operations in Rafah.[xli]

Anonymous Iraqi officials claimed that the United States sent “strongly worded” messages to the Iraqi federal government following an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attack targeting a US diplomatic facility in Baghdad.[xlii] An Iranian-backed Iraqi militia attacked the US Diplomatic Support Complex near Baghdad International Airport on October 1.[xliii] The Iraqi officials claimed that the United States threatened to attack Iranian-backed militias if they continued to attack US positions or escalated further against Israel.[xliv] The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—has increased its rate of attacks targeting Israel since September 17.[xlv]

Key Takeaways:

Iran: Western and Middle Eastern outlets have suggested that Israel killed or injured IRGC Quds Force Commander Esmail Ghaani in an airstrike in Beirut. Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah have reportedly been unable to contact Ghaani since the airstrike.

Iran: Israeli leaders have continued signaling that they will retaliate for the recent Iranian ballistic missile attack. Iran appears to be preparing for an imminent Israeli strike, possibly targeting Iranian energy and nuclear infrastructure.

Lebanon: The IDF continued clearing Lebanese Hezbollah infrastructure around Maroun al Ras and Odaisseh. The IDF also created a third military zone in the Upper Galiliee, amid Israeli reports that the IDF will expand its ground operations into Lebanon.

Gaza Strip: The IDF launched a new clearing operation into the Jabalia refugee camp in order to disrupt Hamas reconstitution efforts. The IDF last operated in the area in May 2024 and encountered significant resistance from three Hamas battalions.

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The Iran Update aims to inform national security policy by providing timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments pertaining to Iran and its Axis of Resistance. This update covers political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. It also provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War will provide regular updates, including daily updates, as the crisis warrants.

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