European Security After the Ukraine War
Not since 1945 has the outlook for European security been so precarious.
Editor’s Note: The Red Cell series is published in collaboration with the Stimson Center. Drawing upon the legacy of the CIA’s Red Cell—established following the September 11 attacks to avoid similar analytic failures in the future—the project works to challenge assumptions, misperceptions, and groupthink with a view to encouraging alternative approaches to America’s foreign and national security policy challenges. For more information about the Stimson Center’s Red Cell Project, see here.
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The chances that the Ukraine War will wind down are increasing, but how this might occur remains unclear. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently told the BBC that 2024 may see the end of “the hot stage” of the war. He added, “It doesn’t mean that all territories are won back by force. I think the power of diplomacy can help.”
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has also vowed to end the Ukraine War within twenty-four hours if he is elected, while Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov have reaffirmed Russian interest in negotiations so long as Russia’s territorial claims are recognized. Ukraine's top diplomat told his Chinese counterpart on a July 24 visit to Guangzhou on Wednesday that Kyiv was open to talks with Russia if Moscow was prepared to negotiate in good faith, obviously wanting Beijing to pressure Russia into dropping its preconditions.
In a previous Red Cell, we outlined four potential endings for the Russo-Ukraine War:
1) A frozen conflict would pose the highest risk for a sudden, new outbreak of fighting.
2) A negotiated ceasefire would reduce the chances of fighting reoccurring, but it would require the endorsement of outside powers, international peacekeepers, and a demilitarized zone. If the ceasefire holds, it would become a basis for an armistice.
3) A Korean-style armistice would likely take years to secure and would require the attainment of a ceasefire.
4) General peace settlements have been rare for conflicts since 1950 and would necessitate a wider settlement of Russia-NATO differences.
In all cases, Europe would need to step up to the plate quickly to ensure any lull or ceasefire is sustained, particularly if the United States under Trump distanced itself from playing a dominant role. Not since 1945 has the outlook for European security been so precarious.
Frozen Conflict
Historically, a frozen conflict has been a preferred Russian tactic for preventing the spread of Western influence into areas of Russian power projection, particularly in places where Russian minorities have resided. Prior to the February 2022 invasion, Russians’ support for separatists in Eastern Ukraine was a classic example of a frozen conflict. Low-level fighting never stopped, but the amount of territory conquered after the initial incursion slowed.
In this scenario, a war of attrition would persist with reduced fighting and neither side gaining nor losing territory. At the same time, both would not be serious about negotiating a ceasefire because for Ukraine, such an agreement could de facto legitimize Russian gains, and for Russia, settling the conflict would increase the risk of Ukraine’s acquiring NATO membership.
A frozen conflict could be fraught with the most risk for European security. A conflict seemingly without end would make it hard for European leaders to sustain their commitment to backing Ukraine militarily. According to a recent survey, most Europeans believe Ukraine is set to lose the war, and majorities in Greece, Hungary, and Italy believe that Kyiv should start negotiating with Moscow now.
Many military analysts, including NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, are skeptical that the Europeans could fill the gap despite recent efforts to boost the capacity of European defense industries. The lack of reliable U.S. help would increase the urgency for Europeans to develop a common defense. However, integrating defense industrial bases to improve Europe’s military readiness in the future and reach needed capabilities would probably take a decade.
Negotiated Ceasefire
Ukraine could feel forced to negotiate a formal ceasefire if any counteroffensive fails and/or Western military support diminishes. Should Ukraine be able to regain the upper hand, perhaps with more attacks inside Russia, Moscow might be more amenable to stopping the war, particularly if Putin thinks he must undertake more unpopular mobilizations and/or the economy tanks.
Almost 50 percent of interstate conflicts end through a negotiated settlement, according to an academic survey of all conflicts that occurred from 1946 to 2005 by Joakim Kreutz. Most of these negotiated settlements are ceasefires. Only one-fifth of interstate conflicts end with one party being the victor.
Ceasefires run the gamut between those that break down—sometimes in a matter of hours or days—and others that are more durable. One academic, Virgina Page Fortna, who used a database created in the Kreutz survey, has warned that for a ceasefire to endure, the following conditions must be in place: (1) sufficient incentives for adhering to the ceasefire; (2) a reduction of the uncertainty about the actions and intentions of others; and (3) means of controlling accidental violations.
Fortna’s findings indicate that it is much harder for ceasefires to endure in cases where there is no clear victor, the two sides have a history of violence, and the very existence of one side is at stake. Although Fortna’s study was completed and published in 2003, her description of the biggest obstacles to peace delineates the major stumbling blocks to a Russo-Ukrainian ceasefire today.
The Russian peace plan, which emanated from the Russo-Ukrainian talks held in Turkey during the early months of the war, suggests possible Russian terms for a ceasefire. The draft treaty declared Ukraine to be a permanent, neutral non-nuclear state. Ukraine would renounce its intention to join NATO, not allowing foreign military bases or troops on its soil. However, if Ukraine came under attack and requested assistance, all P-5 and other guarantor states would be obliged, following consultations with Ukraine and among themselves, to help Ukraine. Remarkably, these obligations were spelled out with much greater precision than NATO’s Article 5: “imposing a no-fly zone, supplying weapons, or directly intervening with the guarantor state’s own military force.” Russia would most likely require a U.S. and NATO agreement on these terms.
Back in 2022, Russia was not necessarily opposed to Ukraine becoming an EU member and even made a significant concession: to discuss the status of Crimea with Kyiv in ten to fifteen years. Although territorial disputes are notoriously difficult to resolve, Russia’s willingness in this case indicates that some negotiation over Russian-held Ukrainian territory may not be out of the question. However, Putin would need to show the Russian people that his government was victorious, making major territorial concessions unlikely.
Should Ukraine have to implore for ceasefire talks, Western powers could help mitigate the severity of Russian terms through concessions, such as removing some sanctions. As in the frozen conflict scenario, Ukraine and its supporters would worry that Russia would exploit a pause to reorganize its forces and restart its offensive. In Syria, Russia and the Bashar al-Assad regime did this repeatedly to “freeze the front when they needed an operational pause.”
Should Russia break the ceasefire, NATO allies would need to be clear about their commitment to Ukraine’s defense. There are few cases of peace failing when an outside state(s) has explicitly underwritten the ceasefire, according to Fortna’s academic research.
Peacekeepers from neutral, third-party countries, such as Turkey or the United Arab Emirates, would need to monitor the peace and arbitrate disputes between Ukraine and Russia. In the Fortna study, there was a large and statistically significant difference between ceasefires overseen by a fresh set of international peacekeepers and those without the benefit of peacekeeping operations. The study demonstrated that the presence of monitors lengthens the duration of the peace. The creation of a fully demilitarized zone at least two kilometers wide or more running the full length of the ceasefire line also reduces the risk of any renewed conflict.
Beyond a durable peace, Ukraine would need help from Bretton Woods institutions on reconstruction. For this, the ceasefire agreement would have to guarantee Ukraine’s and others’ access to shipping lanes in the Black Sea. For its part, Beijing has offered to provide substantial help once peace occurs. Not including China in a global reconstruction coalition would risk Beijing’s undermining conditionality with Belt and Road Initiative-type investment.
To the extent that peace is secured over several years, it would give European states time to develop more strategic defense capabilities to stem further Russian aggression against Ukraine or other European countries and become less dependent on the United States. Beyond Trump and his weak support for NATO, recent Gallup polling shows a significant drop in the number of Americans wanting the U.S. to take a major role in world affairs.
Armistice and Peace Settlement
If a ceasefire holds for a few years, it could set the stage for a formal armistice. In the Korean case, the Armistice talks began in July 1951 and were only concluded with an agreement two years later. According to the Fortna study, formalizing an already effective ceasefire agreement with an armistice by itself does not have any advantages for ensuring a durable peace. As with a peace treaty, neither Ukraine nor its Western backers would likely negotiate an armistice so long as Putin remains the leader of Russia.
A peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine would provide added protection. The time it takes to negotiate a political settlement helps ensure that it endures, but peace settlements following wars are now rare. Such an agreement would most likely veer into broader NATO-Russia talks, potentially triggering arms control measures on conventional and nuclear weaponry. The likelihood that more Ukrainian territory would be restored could increase after Putin’s departure. New leadership in Moscow might be willing to trade some territory for Western economic concessions, decreasing Russian reliance on China.
U.S. Intervention to End the Fighting?
Trump has promised to end the Ukraine war in twenty-four hours, most recently in the June 27 Biden-Trump debate, where he vowed to end the conflict between his November election and the official January 2025 inauguration. Most observers are confused about what Trump would actually do. A Bloomberg report assesses that Trump would use the threat of stopping all military assistance to get Ukraine’s President Zelensky to the negotiating table while telling Putin that he would turn on the taps if he doesn’t negotiate. If Zelensky refuses to engage with Putin, it would be a good excuse for Trump to walk away from providing any help to Ukraine.
In the debate, Trump said Putin’s terms are “unacceptable,” with some analysts assessing that he would not concede to Putin’s demands for the cession of the four oblasts, which Russia partially occupies. During an earlier Fox TV interview, Trump was not as clear-cut about rejecting Putin’s demands, saying he hopes he will not have to choose between Putin “swallowing” Ukraine and sending weapons to Kyiv. In the debate, Trump appeared dead set against providing more U.S. aid to Ukraine, falsely claiming: “Biden is giving $200 billion or more to Ukraine [the actual value is $107 billion]. That’s a lot of money. Every time Zelensky comes to this country, he walks away with $60 billion. The greatest salesman ever.”
Trump will most likely attempt to negotiate with Putin without the Europeans. It is worthwhile to remember Trump’s efforts to negotiate with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un in June 2019, after being the first U.S. president to meet with Kim. “By the end of Trump’s term, the talks had faltered, and he had little more to show for his efforts than a drawer full of flattering letters,” according to a Wilson Center scholar. As happened with the Kim talks, Trump might walk away, hoisting all the responsibility on the Europeans for helping Ukraine and bringing the conflict to an end. Some influential Republican strategists want Washington to turn away from Europe anyway and focus on Asia instead.
The Bottom Line for Europe
Europe faces two threats: continued war on its border that could escalate into a larger one with Russia and a decrease in U.S. support for Ukraine if Trump is elected in November. Over the longer run, greater European defense will be necessary as a deterrent against Russian aggression. Still, diplomatic deftness and flexibility will be needed to turn any possible ceasefire into a permanent peace. Absent a clear victory on either side, both Russia and Ukraine must feel satisfied with any deal to make it last.
Mathew Burrows is a curator of the Red Cell project at the Stimson Center, drawing from a long career in the intelligence community. He serves as Counselor to the President and CEO of Stimson, is the Program Lead of the Strategic Foresight Hub, and was the former Counselor at the National Intelligence Council (NIC), where he set up and directed the NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit, which is now known as the Strategic Futures Group.
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