Four weeks after a Wall Street mini-panic sent stocks spiraling (in a frenzy later dismissed by some as an ill-advised temper tantrum), this August will go down as a rare example of a late summer month brimming with confidence for the future. Levels of conviction are soaring across assets. In one example, exchange-traded funds tracking government debt, corporate credit and equities have now risen in unison for four straight months. It’s the longest stretch of correlated gains since at least 2007. Up 25% in the past 12 months, the S&P 500 has never climbed this much in the run-up to the first interest-rate cut of an easing cycle. So, is it to be a soft landing then? “Everything has to go right,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “We need to continue to have trend or above-trend economic growth. We need to have a labor market that’s not too hot, not too cold. And that then would allow for the consumer to continue to consume. Those things all have to be in a perfect balance.” —David E. Rovella Here are today’s top stories |
The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation rose at a mild pace and household spending picked up in July. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out volatile food and energy items, increased 0.2% from June, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data out Friday. On a three-month annualized basis—a metric economists say paints a more accurate picture of the trajectory of inflation—it advanced 1.7%, the slowest this year. More cement for a September rate cut it would seem. But not everyone is so sanguine. While a conga line of helicopters chopped along Fire Island toward the Hamptons, some investors on Wall Street were still at their desks Labor Day Friday, buying protection against a September selloff. An options trader or traders bought call spreads on the Cboe Volatility Index—or VIX—expiring in September, spending upwards of $9 million to protect against a spike in the gauge of S&P 500 volatility past 22 (its current level is just over 15). A jump like that would bring the VIX back to where it was Aug. 9, when the market was recovering from a sharp selloff. US Vice President Kamala Harris has sustained the burst of momentum she brought to the presidential contest and is leading or tied with Republican Donald Trump in each of the seven states most likely to decide the race. The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll—conducted across probable battleground states after last week’s Democratic National Convention—found Harris has largely eliminated Trump’s advantage on key economic issues and established herself as more trusted than her rival to protect personal freedoms.  Kamala Harris greets audience members at a campaign rally at United Auto Workers Local 900 in Wayne, Michigan, on Aug. 8. Photographer: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images Goldman Sachs plans to fire a few hundred more employees in the coming weeks. The fresh round of terminations would bring total dismissals by the bank in 2024 to about 3% to 4% of its workforce. That’s in line with the bank’s typical approach as it seeks to make room for new talent by sending some existing staffers to the sidewalk. The annual firing exercise was briefly suspended in the middle of the Covid pandemic. Brazil’s top court ordered the immediate suspension of X (formerly Twitter) in the country after Elon Musk defied orders to name a legal representative there for the social network. The banning of the platform caps a months-long feud between the right-wing billionaire and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. X has been contributing to “an environment of total impunity and lawless land in Brazilian social networks, including during the 2024 local elections,” Moraes wrote in his ruling. “Extremist groups and digital militias” have been using the platform for “massive dissemination of Nazi, racist, fascist, hateful and anti-democratic speeches.”  Elon Musk Photograph: Bloomberg China is considering allowing homeowners to refinance as much as $5.4 trillion of mortgages to lower borrowing costs for millions of families and boost consumption. Under the plan, homeowners would be able to renegotiate terms with their current lenders before January, when banks typically reprice mortgages. They would also be allowed to refinance with a different bank for the first time since the global financial crisis. Authorities are ramping up a push to reduce mortgage costs after the central bank encouraged such support last year and banks responded with a rare rate cut on outstanding mortgages of first homes. If you’ve ever suspected that your crypto-obsessed friend might be a psychopath, you may be on to something. Digital-asset holders tend to exhibit higher levels of “dark” personality traits such as narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy and sadism, according to a recent academic paper by researchers at the University of Toronto and the University of Miami. “The results presented here suggest that cryptocurrency ownership is associated with several non-normative and arguably maladaptive characteristics,” the report said. What you’ll need to know tomorrow |
In June, Eva Maguire posted a video to TikTok of her putting star-shaped pimple patches on her face. First, she stuck them to a few blemishes on her cheeks and forehead. Then she applied two more on the outer corner of each eye, dabbing silver eyeshadow on those and her eyelids. The overall effect turned her complexion into a glittery galaxy. Maguire’s is one of more than 27,000 videos on TikTok featuring Starface’s signature hydrocolloid pimple patches, which come in a range of shapes and colors. Puzzling as it might seem to older generations, many of these posts feature Generation Z and Gen Alpha creators using the patches as makeup and fashion statements. The Evening Briefing will return on Tuesday, Sept. 3. Get the Bloomberg Evening Briefing: If you were forwarded this newsletter, sign up here to receive Bloomberg’s flagship briefing in your mailbox daily. Bloomberg Tech: Humanity has always relied on technology to drive growth. With the emergence of artificial intelligence, society is being asked to trust tech with economies, media and health like never before. Join visionaries, investors and business leaders in London on Oct. 22 to discuss the risks and rewards of this new age. Buy tickets today. | 
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