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| August 27, 2024 |
Hello, everyone. Today at WPR, we’re covering the effects of a weakened France and Germany on the EU, and our columnist provides a late-summer reading list. |
But first, here’s our take on today’s top story: |
Brazil: A historic surge in wildfires cloaked Brasilia and Sao Paulo in smoke over the weekend and yesterday, prompting Brazil’s environmental minister to declare the country “at war” with the blazes. Four people have been arrested on suspicion of starting the fires in the state of Sao Paulo, where the blazes have caused disruptions and burned thousands of hectares of farmland. (The Guardian; Reuters) |
Our Take: While Brazil deals with a significant number of wildfires every year, the blazes have affected a much wider area than normal this year. The fires became noticeable for many more people over the weekend, as Brasilia—the seat of the federal government—and Sao Paulo—Brazil’s most populous and wealthiest state—were affected. |
But while the effects for Brasilia and Sao Paulo have now largely abated, the wildfires remain a problem for three of Brazil’s six major biomes—the Amazon rainforest, the Cerrado savanna and the Pantanal wetland. The latter, a rich area for biodiversity, is particularly concerning, since the Pantanal is normally flooded for most of the year, but has suffered from a prolonged drought that has affected much of Latin America. |
That drought is in part the result of the weather phenomenon El Nino, but it has also undoubtedly been exacerbated by climate change. There’s a recursive cycle to that problem, too. Prolonged droughts increase the likelihood of and exacerbate the effects of wildfires, which in turn release greenhouse gases and worsen deforestation, themselves exacerbating the effects of climate change. |
Put simply, natural disasters like wildfires are getting more common, and they will likely continue to get more common because of the climate crisis. And yet, as then-WPR columnist Stewart Patrick pointed out in 2022, “natural” disasters aren’t all that natural: “The extent of damage and suffering depends hugely on whether people anticipate and prepare for these contingencies.” |
In Brazil’s case, that means getting better at preventing wildfires, the vast majority of which are started by humans, from breaking out. But it also means getting better at assessing which areas are more at risk of quick-spreading wildfires and devoting more resources to disaster preparedness. Resilience will be an important part of mitigating the effects of climate change, and assessing the risk of natural disasters—something humans are notoriously bad at—is a significant aspect of that. |
Read all our coverage of climate change here. |
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Europe’s two leading powers—France and Germany— are currently mired in domestic political drama at a moment in which the EU is facing enormous geopolitical challenges. |
In France, President Emmanuel Macron is facing uncharted political territory after snap parliamentary elections last month. And in Germany, the ruling coalition is struggling to pass a budget as its popularity dwindles. |
The domestic political challenges mean that neither leader will be particularly focused on the European agenda over the coming months. As Gesine Weber writes, that shift comes at a bad time for the EU, which is facing a number of massive challenges. |
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Columnist Charli Carpenter brought a number of “vacation” readings on her summer trip earlier this month—books on ocean governance, international law, and the impact of global geopolitics on vulnerable communities. |
As luck would have it, though her trip was cut short by weather, specifically Hurricane Ernesto. So today, she runs down the books she began perusing this month and which readers might like as they finish out their last weeks of summer: |
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Question of the Day: Which of the following Ecuadorian politicians filed a formal complaint with the country’s electoral court this month asking for the removal of President Daniel Noboa? |
Find the answer in the latest WPR Weekly Quiz, then read James Bosworth’s column about the political feud and why it’s bad for Ecuador. |
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Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif said that recent attacks by separatist militants in the country’s southwestern province of Balochistan were aimed at hindering development projects in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The attacks began Sunday and were the most widespread in years by the separatist Baloch militants. |
Baloch insurgents are fiercely opposed to Chinese presence in the resource-rich province, where Beijing funds billions worth of projects to upgrade infrastructure under its Belt and Road Initiative. But despite the separatists’ attacks, as Adnan Aamir wrote in 2019, China still has many ways to influence Pakistan and guard its interests through loans, investments, defense cooperation and international support at the U.N. Security Council. |
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During a visit to Beijing Tuesday, Jake Sullivan, U.S. national security adviser, said that the U.S. and China are working to avoid conflict despite strained relations. Sullivan is meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi over two days, with the goal of maintaining recent improvements in communications between the two sides. |
Communication between the U.S. and China broke down for the better part of a year starting in 2022, but since last year the two governments have slowly moved back to speaking terms. Still, as Paul Poast wrote last year, while being on speaking terms might be better than not talking at all, it’s still a low floor for U.S.-China relations. |
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Canadian PM Justin Trudeau announced yesterday that Canada would impose 100 percent tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, matching the protectionist policy already in the United States. As Mary Gallagher wrote in May, Washington’s EV protectionism is a high-stakes gamble that runs the risk of isolating domestic markets and further delaying technological progress. |
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Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei opened the door to negotiations with the U.S. over his country’s rapidly advancing nuclear program. Read about why the Biden administration’s previous efforts to forge a new nuclear deal with Iran fell apart in this Daily Review from last year. |
More from WPR |
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Read all of our latest coverage here. |
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