Editors' Pıcks from the Atlantic Council - August 24, 2024 - reflections on how this struggle is being waged today amid the war in Ukraine, authoritarian crackdowns across the world, and other rising threats to international security.

 Atlantic  Council

This week’s edition brought to you by Daniel Hojnacki, Assistant Editor

AUGUST 24, 2024 | “If there is anything inevitable in the future, it is the will of the people of the world for freedom and for peace.” So said President Harry Truman upon the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty, which entered into force seventy-five years ago today. Forty-one years later, Ukraine’s parliament adopted a declaration of independence from the Soviet Union. Such anniversaries offer an opportunity not just to reflect on the past, but to apply their lessons to the present. Below, our experts share their reflections on how this struggle is being waged today amid the war in Ukraine, authoritarian crackdowns across the world, and other rising threats to international security.

Where there’s a will. Thirty-five years ago, more than two million Lithuanians, Latvians, and Estonians joined hands, forming a human chain more than four hundred miles long to protest the Soviet occupation of their countries. A little more than two years later, all three Baltic states would achieve independence. This movement, which came to be called the Baltic Way, “showed that when people unite, they can change the course of history,” writes transatlantic security expert Inga Samoškaitė, whose family took part in the demonstration on Lithuania’s A2 motorway. Read more on how the Baltic Way unfolded and how its example continues to inspire movements for freedom the world over.

National crisis, regional solutions. After Nicolás Maduro claimed victory in a fraudulent presidential election, many Venezuelans plan to leave the country amid an ongoing economic crisis and growing crackdowns against dissent. With more Venezuelans embarking on perilous journeys abroad in search of economic opportunity and freedom from state repression, the United States and its partners in Latin America need to take steps to prepare for this increase in migration, writes researcher Lucie Kneip. Lucie identifies three areas where international coordination will be essential: shifting to more permanent policy responses, improving migrants’ working conditions, and alleviating poverty in Venezuela. Read more on how host countries can coordinate to improve their response to migration from Venezuela.

Nothing to see here. While Ukraine’s surprise counter-invasion into Russia’s Kursk region has shocked the world and generated global news coverage, you wouldn’t know it from a survey of Russian state media, writes Peter Dickinson, who edits our UkraineAlert section from Kyiv. And those outlets are taking their cues from the top: In the weeks since Ukrainian troops launched the first invasion of Russia since World War II, Russian President Vladimir Putin has only addressed “the situation” in Kursk in vague, euphemistic terms and even left the country for a routine diplomatic visit. While downplaying the Kursk offensive could blunt its impact on the Russian public for now, Putin’s propaganda strategy has its limits. “If this situation persists,” Peter writes, it will “fatally undermine his ability to intimidate the international community.” Read on for what Putin doesn’t want you to know about Ukraine’s invasion of Russia.

This means (trade) war. Since 2018, the United States has responded to what it views as China’s unfair trade practices by leveling tariffs against Beijing, an approach that the next administration will likely continue in some form regardless of who wins the presidency in November. But one aspect of the US-China trade war has changed in the past six years, writes analyst Mrugank Bhusari: “In 2025, far more countries will share concerns over the impact of an expansion of Chinese exports.” More and more European Union and Group of Twenty (G20) economies fear that China will crowd out their domestic industries with its highly subsidized high-tech exports. However, this doesn’t mean they will all be completely on the same page, Mrugank argues. “Divergent priorities around trade with China” among advanced economies, he writes, “will mean they struggle to coordinate a shared response.” Read more on how more countries are guarding against a “China shock 2.0.”

Island time. As the geopolitical competition between the United States and China intensifies, both nations have become increasingly interested in the Pacific Islands. This fact is not lost on Pacific island leaders as they prepare to gather in Tonga next week. The leaders are both wary of how this competition could divide the region and conscious about how they can leverage the US-China rivalry to their advantage, writes Indo-Pacific expert Parker Novak. As China makes inroads in the region with a slew of high-level meetings and economic aid initiatives, how should the United States and its allies engage with Pacific island nations? “Leader-level visits and multilateral confabs are important, but nothing beats a consistent on-the-ground presence,” writes Parker. Read more on how the United States and China are reaching out to the Pacific Islands—and how the region is responding.