WSJ
Five Takeaways From WSJ’s Reporting on Trump’s Decision to Launch a War in Iran
World
Middle East
Five Takeaways From WSJ’s Reporting on Trump’s Decision to Launch a War in Iran
The president was warned that military attack could prompt Tehran to close Strait of Hormuz, but moved ahead
By
Vera Bergengruen
Follow
,
Alex Leary
Follow
,
Lara Seligman
Follow
and
Alexander Ward
Follow
March 14, 2026 3:00 pm ET
The idea that the U.S. military could quickly bring about a regime change spurred President Trump to attack Iran. Nathan Howard/Reuters
President Trump’s decision to attack Iran came after briefings about one of the war’s biggest risks: that Tehran could shut the Strait of Hormuz and shake the global economy.
The rapidly expanding war has exposed how the White House was counting on the quick collapse of the Iranian regime, how the planning was confined to a small circle of advisers and how confident Trump was that U.S. military force could contain the fallout. Some takeaways:
Trump was warned Iran could shut the world’s most important oil chokepoint—and went ahead anyway.
Before the U.S. and Israel launched the military assault against Iran on Feb. 28, Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Trump in multiple briefings that an American attack could prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries 20% of the world’s oil exports from the Persian Gulf to the rest of the globe.
While he acknowledged that it was a possibility, Trump decided to move ahead with the operation. He believed that Tehran would likely capitulate before it could close the strait or cause significant economic damage. And if it came to it, he told his team, the U.S. military would be able to handle it. On Friday evening, Trump said the U.S. bombed military targets on Iran’s Kharg Island, a critical hub for the country’s crude oil exports, to pressure Tehran to reopen the strait.
The president was driven by his confidence in the power of the U.S. military.
Behind Trump’s rationale for war was a deep confidence in the capabilities of the U.S. military to deliver a swift, decisive victory, according to administration officials and others familiar with the matter.
The president often brags about the military and its lethality. And he is especially fond of Caine, whom he often refers to by his nickname, Razin Caine. Despite setbacks, Trump has publicly maintained confidence that the military can execute its mission.
But costs continue to mount. At least 13 American servicemembers have been killed, making the war in Iran the deadliest military operation of Trump’s two terms, and more than 1,300 Iranians have been killed, according to the country’s envoy to the United Nations. Trump and some advisers were also surprised by the breadth of Iran’s retaliation, according to people familiar with the matter, including the wave of missiles and drones launched across the region, from Azerbaijan to Oman.
Trump’s decision was shaped by the success of previous military operations in Iran and Venezuela.
Trump’s decision last summer to launch a mission to strike three Iranian nuclear sites, known as Operation Midnight Hammer, convinced him that he could bomb Iran, absorb a brief backlash and then personally dictate the off-ramp, U.S. officials and others familiar with the matter said.
The mission to depose Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in January reinforced in Trump’s mind that swift regime change could be managed with a well-executed military operation and by backing a more accommodating successor, without triggering wider instability.
But that didn’t happen this time. Instead, Iran named hard-liner Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader after joint U.S.-Israeli strikes killed his father. In a statement this week, the younger Khamenei vowed to keep blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has publicly lamented that the military operation killed Iranian leaders who potentially could have ushered in friendlier relations with the U.S.
Only a small group of top advisers was looped into the preparations to go to war.
Preparations for a major military operation typically involve weeks or months of deliberations, written options papers, dissenting views from officials across different agencies, and meetings with the National Security Council. But according to administration officials, planning for the Iran operation was handled by a much smaller circle.
This included Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. While this allowed Trump to limit leaks and move quickly as events shifted, it also narrowed the range of advice and dissent that reached the president as he weighed the risks of attacking Iran.
Left unanswered were such questions as how to evacuate U.S. citizens in an escalating conflict—or ensure the next Iranian leader was friendly with Washington, U.S. officials said.
The president has no plans to immediately end the war.
Trump has said repeatedly that the war might end soon and he has already claimed victory. He is facing pressure from outside advisers to end the conflict quickly, as well as concerns from fellow Republicans facing a tough midterm election climate. Gulf allies have also expressed their frustration with Washington as Iran has attacked oil refineries, hotels and other civilian targets, piercing the narrative that Gulf nations are safe places for business within a turbulent region.
But Trump is “dug in,” a senior White House official said, adding the timeline being considered remains four to six weeks. The war entered its third week on Saturday. On Friday, Trump said he would end the war when he feels it “in my bones.”
The Iran War
Latest news and analysis, selected by editors
Hormuz Crisis Raises Specter of Prolonged Closure
Iran’s Sea Mines Are One of Its Most Powerful Weapons
Ending Iran War Quickly Carries Big Risks for the U.S. and Allies
Trump’s Head-Spinning Pivot on an Emergency Oil Release
These Two Mideast Pipelines Are Needed More Than Ever
U.S., Iran Predicted a Different War Than the One Being Waged
Iran Is Building a Religious Mythology Around New Leader
The Final Days of an Iranian Navy Crew
----------------------
Vera Bergengruen is a national security reporter at The Wall Street Journal in Washington, D.C. Before joining the Journal, she was a senior correspondent at Time magazine, where she covered the intersection of national security, tech and politics and reported cover stories from Ukraine, Argentina and El Salvador.
Previously she worked as a national security and investigative reporter for BuzzFeed News. She began her journalism career at her hometown Miami Herald and its parent company McClatchy, where she did stints covering everything from hurricanes to Congress, the Defense Department and the White House.
Her work has won the Society of Professional Journalists' Sigma Delta Chi and Dateline Awards and a New York Press Club Award. She was also part of the team that worked on the Pulitzer Prize-winning Panama Papers investigation in 2017. Vera is originally from Uruguay and grew up in Chile, Germany, Mexico and Miami.
Follow
Alex Leary is a White House reporter for The Wall Street Journal. He previously worked for the Tampa Bay Times.
Follow
Lara Seligman is a national security reporter for The Wall Street Journal in Washington, where she covers the White House and the Pentagon. She previously spent four years at Politico as a defense reporter.
Lara's reporting on the military and the defense industry has taken her around the world, with time spent covering geopolitics in real time in Africa, Asia and the Middle East.
Lara previously covered the Pentagon and national security for Foreign Policy. She also has written for publications including the Washington Post and Defense News.
Follow
Alexander Ward is a national security reporter covering the White House and State Department for The Wall Street Journal in Washington. Alex’s reporting focuses in particular on the inner workings of the National Security Council and how top players in an administration formulate and execute foreign policy.
Alex was previously the White House and national security reporter at Politico, where he was also the first author of its "National Security Daily" newsletter. Before that, he was Vox's White House reporter covering foreign policy and worked at the Atlantic Council think tank covering national security and military affairs.
Alex has won numerous awards for his reporting and was named a Pulitzer Prize finalist along with Politico colleagues for Supreme Court coverage.
In February 2024, Alex published his first book, "The Internationalists: The Fight to Restore American Foreign Policy after Trump." He is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
No comments:
Post a Comment