Foreign Policy - Africa Brief: Egypt vies for regional influence

 Power Plays 

A screen grab from a video posted on X by a spokesperson for the Egyptian Army on Feb. 11 shows Egyptian forces taking part in the African Union mission in Somalia.Egyptian Army via X

CAIRO—This week, I’m writing from Egypt, where President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s military expansion and large-scale infrastructure projects are well underway as his regime seeks to shore up domestic support and become an indispensable geopolitical player amid rising regional tensions.

In recent weeks, there has been increasing evidence that Egypt is being drawn into neighboring Sudan’s civil war. Satellite imagery suggests that Cairo has been carrying out drone strikes in Sudan against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which have been fighting the Sudanese military since 2023.

Egypt has also sought to challenge Israel’s ambitions in the Horn of Africa. Last December, Israel became the first country to formally recognize Somaliland—a breakaway region of Somalia—in a move to bolster its strategic position in the Red Sea.

Somaliland’s coastline provides immediate access to the Red Sea, which is a conduit for an estimated 12 percent of global trade, linking Europe, Asia, and Africa. The move also allows Israel to potentially establish a military presence to counter Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in the maritime corridor.

In the wake of Israel’s move, Sisi reiterated Egypt’s “special role” in Somalia and called Israel’s actions a “dangerous precedent that threatens the stability of the entire Horn of Africa.”

Egypt also deployed around 1,100 soldiers to Somalia earlier this month as part of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission (AUSSOM) to support counterterrorism efforts against al-Shabab, a jihadist group. They will form part of a 5,000 AUSSOM contingency that Cairo proposed in 2024.

Meanwhile, Egypt is concerned about a potential Israel-Ethiopia alignment, especially as some analysts expect Israel to push Ethiopia to recognize Somaliland (a possibility that Addis Ababa has flirted with before). According to security experts, Cairo views Somalia as an important “pressure point” against Ethiopia.

Egypt and Ethiopia are long-standing rivals; their current dispute centers on the construction of the latter’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Cairo has argued will negatively impact its access to the Nile’s water supply.

In late 2025, Egypt reached agreements to upgrade Djibouti’s port of Doraleh and Eritrea’s port of Assab. The  moves were widely seen by analysts as encircling Ethiopia.

As these regional actors compete for influence, they risk transforming the Horn of Africa into a volatile proxy conflict zone that further draws in other states including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. Saudi Arabia is reportedly finalizing an agreement on a new military coalition with Somalia and Egypt, in a bid to counter the United Arab Emirates’ regional influence.

Egyptians have generally supported their government being a strong actor in supporting regional stability, particularly on the conflict in Gaza, but many fear that lavish spending on ports, arms, and troop deployments abroad is misplaced.

On the streets of Cairo, ordinary Egyptians have told me this week that they see Sisi’s focus on military might as a way to distract from public anger over the worsening economy.

They largely blame this on Sisi’s mega-projects, from the $59 billion new administrative capital, which is slated to have the world’s largest defense headquarters when completed, to a $35 billion megacity on the Mediterranean. Rampant building is hard to ignore around Cairo, where Sisi’s image adorns giant billboards advertising his infrastructure accomplishments and heralding a “new Egypt.”

The newly opened $1 billion Grand Egyptian Museum, while impressive, only had a few Egyptian visitors when I went recently, among crowds of Western and East Asian tourists.

Poverty rates have steadily risen in Egypt over the past decade. Although the Egyptian pound stabilized last year—largely due to capital injections from the International Monetary Fund and foreign investment pledges—Egyptians continue to face a cost-of-living crisis, which has only been exacerbated by new policies that clamp down on rent controls and food subsidies.

Many Egyptians are especially unhappy with the military’s outsized role in the economy. The military controls up to 90 percent of public projects, and firms linked to it are shielded from financial audits and parliamentary scrutiny.

The new administrative capital “does nothing to grow our economy—it’s a smokescreen for corruption,” said one trader, who asked to remain anonymous. “We are all struggling.”