Foreign Affairs - How to Avert the Tragedy of Great-Power Politics - Germany Knows the Costs of a World Governed by Power Alone - Friedrich Merz - February 13, 2026

 Foreign Affairs 

How to Avert the Tragedy of Great-Power Politics

Germany Knows the Costs of a World Governed by Power Alone

Friedrich Merz

February 13, 2026

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Brussels, January 2026

Yves Herman / Reuters

Friedrich Merz is Chancellor of Germany.

Europe, as the German philosopher Peter Sloterdijk recently wrote, has ended a long “vacation from history.” We have crossed the threshold into a gloomier era that is once again characterized by power flexing and great-power politics. The United States’ claim to global leadership is being challenged, perhaps even squandered. And the international order that was based on rights and rules, imperfect as it was even in its best days, no longer exists.

Russia’s violent revisionism in its brutal war against Ukraine is only the most glaring expression of this new era. China is also laying claim to great-power status and has, with strategic patience, been laying the foundations for influence over world affairs for decades. China systematically cultivates dependencies and is reinterpreting the international order. In the foreseeable future, its military could be on par with the U.S. military. If there was a unipolar moment after the fall of the Berlin Wall, it is long gone.

The return to power politics cannot be explained solely by the rivalries among major powers. This new dynamic also reflects the turmoil and unrest within societies where new technologies are driving revolutionary change. As democratic states reach the limits of their capacity to act, there is a longing for strong leadership. Great-power politics, it seems, provides straightforward, simple answers to these problems—at least for the great powers, and at least for the time being.

These politics are fast, tough, and unpredictable. They are also zero sum. They are not based on the belief that increasing interconnectedness produces a peaceful and lawful order that benefits everyone. Instead, they exploit the dependencies of others and take advantage of them if necessary. Raw materials, technologies, and supply chains thus become instruments of power.

What we are seeing today is a struggle for spheres of influence, dependencies, and allegiances. Recognizing that it has some catching up to do with China, the United States is adapting to this new dynamic at a rapid pace. In the policies it is laying out, not least in its National Security Strategy, Washington is drawing radical conclusions, and it is doing so in a way that accelerates rather than slows down this dangerous game.

Germany, too, is getting ready for this new era. Our first task is to acknowledge the new reality. But that does not mean that we accept it as an unchangeable fate. We are not at the mercy of this world but can shape it. We can and will preserve our interests and our values if we act decisively, in European unison, and with confidence in our own strength as well as the strength of the transatlantic relationship.

ENDS AND MEANS

German foreign and security policy aims for three things: freedom, security, and strength. Above all else stands our freedom. Our security serves to protect it, and our economic strength helps it flourish. Germany’s constitution, its history, and its geography also demand that Germany’s policy be firmly anchored in a united Europe. This is more valuable to us today than ever before.

In recent decades, Germany has relied on its normative power to condemn violations of international order around the world. In the face of such violations, it has warned, expressed concern, and reprimanded. And it did so with the best intentions. But it also lost sight of the fact that it often lacked the means to remedy those situations. This gap between German aspirations and German capabilities widened too far. The time has come to close it, to live up to reality.

We are not at the mercy of this world but can shape it.

Russia’s GDP, for instance, amounts to around $2.5 trillion. The European Union’s is almost ten times higher. And yet Europe today is not ten times stronger than Russia. To tap our enormous military, political, economic, and technological potential, we first need to flip a switch in our minds. We must realize that in this era of great-power politics, our freedom is no longer a given. Preserving it will take determination, and we must be ready for change, hard work, and even sacrifice.

For historical reasons, Germans do not take the exercise of state power lightly. Since 1945, our thinking has been firmly anchored in containing power, not accruing it. But today, we must update this perspective. While acknowledging that too much state power can destroy the foundation of our freedom, we must also recognize that having too little produces the same result, if in a different way. As Radoslaw Sikorski, Poland’s foreign minister, said 15 years ago, “I fear German power less than German inaction.” Heeding this call for action is part of Germany’s responsibility—and one it accepts.

In the era of great powers, Germany cannot merely react to every move that a great power makes. Nor can it afford to wage power politics in Europe. It needs leadership through partnership, not hegemonic fantasies. Indeed, the best way to defend our freedom is with our neighbors, allies, and partners, building on our strength, sovereignty, and capacity for solidarity. Firmly anchored in Europe, Germany must chart its own course and set its own agenda for freedom. Although parts of this agenda are still taking shape, it is rooted in principled realism, and its implementation is already underway.

A PROGRAM FOR FREEDOM

First, we are strengthening ourselves militarily, politically, economically, and technologically, and reducing our dependencies. Our top priority is to strengthen the European pillar within NATO. At the NATO summit in The Hague in June 2025, all allies committed to investing five percent of their GDP in security. Germany amended its constitution to enable this, and Germany alone will spend hundreds of billions of euros on defense in the coming years.

With Europe, Germany has supported Ukraine diplomatically, financially, and militarily in its courageous resistance against Russian imperialism. In the process, we have imposed unprecedented losses and costs on Moscow. In 2025, European NATO allies and Canada provided roughly $40 billion in security assistance to Ukraine after the United States drastically reduced its contribution. Germany was by far the biggest donor in 2025, and it has further increased its support in 2026. If Russia finally agrees to peace, German and European and leadership on this front will have been a key factor. This is an expression of European self-assertion.

Germany, for its part, is breathing new life into its defense industry. It has initiated massive conventional procurement projects in air defense, deep precision strikes, and satellite technology. New factories are opening. New jobs are being created. New technologies are emerging. The reform of our military service is underway, and we will make the Bundeswehr the strongest conventional army in Europe, able to hold its ground when it has to. We are also strengthening NATO’s eastern flank, with a brigade in Lithuania that stands ready to deter Russian aggression, and we will do more to secure the Arctic High North.

At the same time, Germany is making its economy and society more resilient. We are introducing new laws to strengthen our networks and critical infrastructure against hybrid attacks. We are forging supply chains that reduce unilateral dependencies on raw materials, key products, and technologies. In this new world, we will be secure only if we are competitive, which is why we are also driving progress in future technologies, including artificial intelligence. And we are protecting our democratic order against its internal and external enemies by, among other efforts, strengthening our Federal Intelligence Service.

CONTINENTAL TEAMWORK

Germany is also working to strengthen Europe. Uniting and bolstering European sovereignty is our best response to this new era and our most distinguished duty today. To do so, we must focus on the essentials: preserving and increasing European freedom, security, and competitiveness.

We must curb the proliferation of European bureaucracy and regulation. Europe’s standards must not immobilize us in global competition but should fuel innovation and entrepreneurship, encourage investment, and reward creativity. Europe must not retreat into risk avoidance but open itself to new opportunities.

Europe must also become a global political player with its own security policy. In Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union, members commit to assisting each other in the event of an armed attack. We must now spell out how we could organize this at the EU level, not as a substitute for NATO but as a self-sustaining, strong pillar of the alliance.

German, EU, and NATO flags outside the federal chancellery, Berlin, July 2025

Christian Mang / Reuters

As part of this effort, we have entered into confidential talks with France about nuclear deterrence in Europe. Our compass here is clear: this endeavor is strictly embedded in NATO nuclear sharing frameworks; Germany will continue to comply with its obligations under international law; and we will not allow zones of differing security to emerge in Europe. We hope to agree on the first concrete steps this year.

Meanwhile, the European defense industry must standardize, scale, and simplify weapons systems to become quicker, cheaper, and more competitive. We will use EU programs such as Security Action for Europe (SAFE) to kick-start defense industrial cooperation across Europe. This will also drive Europe’s progressive military integration.

Uniting in this way will open Europe to new strategic partners, including in trade. In a first step, we have signed the EU-Mercosur agreement and will provisionally apply it as quickly as possible. We have also negotiated and are now working to finalize a free trade agreement with India. More such agreements will follow soon.

Diplomatically, we are squaring the circle in Europe—an effort that is evident in our work for peace in Ukraine. Where we need to be agile, we are moving forward in small groups—such as the E3, which consists of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom—but also with Italy and Poland, which are taking on larger roles as European playmakers. We know that our long-term success depends on bringing other Europeans along with us. For Germans, there is no way around this. Germany is at the center of Europe. If Europe is torn apart, we are torn apart.

SYSTEM UPDATE

One of Europe’s greatest dilemmas is that the global realignment that major powers are driving is happening faster than we can ready ourselves. For this reason alone, I am not convinced that the calls for Europe to write off the United States as a partner are wise. I understand the unease and doubts that give rise to such demands. In fact, I share some of them. Yet they do not adequately account for the possible consequences of such action. They ignore the harsh geopolitical realities of Europe’s uneasy neighborhood with Russia. And they underestimate the strong potential that remains in our partnership with the United States, despite all the difficulties it is facing.

Germany thus wants to establish a new transatlantic partnership. The uncomfortable truth is that a rift has opened up between Europe and the United States. The culture war waged by the MAGA movement is not ours. We do not believe in tariffs and protectionism but in free trade. We stand by global climate agreements and the World Health Organization because we are convinced that we can only solve global challenges together. The transatlantic partnership has lost its self-evidence, so if it is to have a future, we must reestablish it. Its new foundations must not be esoteric but based on a mutual recognition that Europe and the United States are stronger together.

Being part of NATO is Europe’s competitive advantage; it is also the United States’. In this age of great powers, even Washington needs partners it can trust, a fact of which strategists at the Pentagon are aware. We should therefore repair and revive transatlantic trust together. Europe is doing its part.

Autocracies may have followers. Democracies rely on allies, partners, and trusted friends. As Europeans, we should take this to heart. No one forced us into the excessive dependence on the United States with which we have found ourselves. This immaturity was self-imposed. Today, we are emerging from this state of affairs. We will leave it behind, sooner rather than later, not by writing off NATO but by building a self-sustaining, strong European pillar within it.

This is the right path for us to take under all circumstances. It is the right path if the United States distances itself from Europe. And it is especially the right path for establishing a renewed, healthier transatlantic partnership. We may disagree more often than we did in the past. We may have to negotiate and argue more about the right course of action. But if we do so with strength, mutual respect, and a newly found self-respect, both sides will benefit.

EXPANDING THE CIRCLE

Finally, we are building a strong network of global partnerships. As important as European integration and transatlantic partnership remain for Germany, they will no longer suffice to preserve our freedom.

Partnership is not an absolute term. It comes in shades. It does not require complete agreement on all values and interests. We are therefore reaching out to new partners with whom we share not all but some important concerns. This reduces dependencies and opens up opportunities for both sides. It protects our freedom.

In this era of great-power politics, our freedom is no longer a given.

Japan, Canada, Turkey, India, and Brazil play key roles in this effort, as do South Africa, the Gulf states, and others. We want to move closer to them, with mutual respect. We share a fundamental interest in an order in which we trust agreements, tackle global problems together, and resolve conflicts peacefully. From experience, we know that international law and international organizations can serve our sovereignty, independence, and freedom.

Germany is also updating its relationship with China. It would be a fallacy to believe that decoupling is the right path. Decoupling would enhance neither our security nor our prosperity. But we will manage our relationship in a more mature fashion. Above all, we will further de-risk by reducing dependencies. We will work hard to ensure fair competition and level playing fields for both sides. And we will shape a more united European approach. As we progress, we will engage in dialogue with Beijing with principled realism, mindful of the fact that China is here to stay as one of the great powers shaping the new era.

As we forge ahead, we must see the big picture and steer a clear course: Germans know that a world in which only power counts is a dark place. Our country went down this path in the twentieth century to a bitter and evil end. Today, we are taking a different path. Our country is firmly anchored in the European Union, in NATO, and in a growing network of strategic partnerships. We believe in the value of reliable partnership based on shared values and interests, mutual respect, and trust. After 1945, it was the United States that inspired Germans with this powerful idea. On this foundation, NATO became the strongest alliance in history. Germany remains faithful to this idea. Together with our allies and partners, we want to translate it for the new era.

Topics & Regions: Europe Germany Geopolitics Foreign Policy European Union NATO