Council 0n Foreign Relations Daily News Brief - February 25, 2025 - covering how the U.S. swing on Ukraine policy echoed through the United Nations yesterday, as well as... A political conference to decide Syria’s future How the DRC is trying to influence cobalt prices Europe’s new AI model to improve weather forecasting

 

Daily News Brief February 25, 2025

Welcome to CFR’s Daily News Brief. Today we’re covering how the U.S. swing on Ukraine policy echoed through the United Nations yesterday, as well as... A political conference to decide Syria’s future How the DRC is trying to influence cobalt prices Europe’s new AI model to improve weather forecasting

Top of the Agenda The United States’ rift with longtime allies over the Russia-Ukraine war continues. At the United Nations yesterday, on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion, a UN General Assembly resolution that condemned Russia’s actions passed over U.S. objections. That was the first in a series of votes that saw the United States split from European allies. Washington then abstained from supporting its own separate resolution on the war after European amendments added language identifying Russia as the aggressor. Later, a U.S. resolution that called for a swift end to the war without saying who started it passed in the Security Council by ten votes to zero. Five European countries abstained, while Russia and China supported the U.S. motion.   Meanwhile in Washington, French President Emmanuel Macron tried to mend the growing tear in U.S.-Europe relations yesterday during an Oval Office meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Macron said he backed Trump’s diplomacy with Russia but said that peace should not come through a “weak” agreement.  Macron pushed back against Trump’s statement at their joint press conference that European countries had given Ukraine wartime aid as loans and were getting “their money back.” Macron interjected to say that Europe had indeed “paid,” and like the United States had provided Ukraine with a mix of grants, loans, and loan guarantees. Trump endorsed Macron’s proposal for a European peacekeeping force in Ukraine, and said that Russian President Vladimir Putin would accept it. Macron called for the United States to back such a deployment as a security guarantee. In Europe, more than a dozen Western leaders visited Ukraine yesterday and pledged continued financial and diplomatic support. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced more than $1 billion in military aid. United Kingdom (UK) Prime Minister Keir Starmer addressed the group virtually and said the UK is providing $5 billion in aid this year. The UK also announced its largest sanctions package on Russia since 2022. In Moscow, Putin affirmed Russia’s closeness with China on a call even as state television aired an interview in which he touted potential dealmaking through closer U.S.-Russia ties. Some observers have wondered if warming U.S.-Russia ties could drive a wedge between China and Russia. At this month’s Munich Security Conference, U.S. envoy Keith Kellogg suggested Washington could lead Moscow to “break” its alliances, including that with Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping said the countries are “good neighbors that cannot be pulled apart” and cited their “long-term” relationship on the call, according to a Chinese readout. The Kremlin said the call was “warm and friendly” but went into less detail.  In an interview that aired last night, Putin floated the prospect of U.S. firms doing new business deals in Russia and mining projects in Russia-occupied Ukraine. It came as Washington and Kyiv are reportedly nearing a deal to facilitate U.S. access to Ukraine’s critical minerals. Putin also praised Trump’s recent suggestion of three-way talks with the United States, China, and Russia about slashing defense spending.

“American leadership in the free world has always been less about how much material support it gives and more about how it comports itself. The United States damages itself, damages the cause of democracy more, and gives succor to reaction when it takes the side of a despot, against a democracy fighting for its freedom,” CFR expert Ebenezer Obadare writes.

The Intellectual Origins of Trump’s Economic Policies Trump’s tariff announcements revive the age-old policy of import substitution industrialization to protect domestic industries and stimulate growth. That could lead to significant disruptions for the United States and its trading partners, CFR expert Roger W. Ferguson Jr. writes for RealEcon.

Across the Globe Syria’s national dialogue. Hundreds of Syrians are in Damascus today for a conference on the country’s political future. They will produce recommendations for an interim government that is slated to take office on March 1. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, a U.S.-backed militia that controls much of the country’s northeast, was not invited; the interim government had demanded they disarm as a condition for participating.   Europe’s AI weather forecaster. The region’s intergovernmental weather center debuted an artificial intelligence (AI)-powered model that it says is around 20 percent more accurate than conventional systems. While private tech companies have also been experimenting with AI for weather predictions—Google launched a new model in December—the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said its system will be distinct by making global predictions available for free. It operates more quickly and with less energy than traditional physics-based models.    Taiwan detains Chinese crew. Taiwan’s coast guard detained the Chinese crew of a Togolese-registered cargo ship after a nearby underwater cable was severed, saying it is investigating the incident for potential “gray-zone harassment.” A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said he was not familiar with the matter and it was not “related to China’s diplomacy.” Taiwan as well as Baltic governments have probed suspected cases of sabotaging subsea cables in recent months.     Vietnam’s booming export growth. Vietnam exports rose 13.8 percent last year, surpassing comparable Southeast Asian economies. Malaysia’s exports grew 5.6 percent, Thailand’s 5.4 percent, and Indonesia’s 2.3 percent, according to official data. Vietnam has become a top beneficiary of companies shifting their supply chains away from China.   DRC cobalt controls. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the world’s largest cobalt producer, said it is halting those exports for four months in response to “overabundance of supply on the international market.” Cobalt is a main ingredient in electric car batteries. Global prices in real terms for standard-grade cobalt have fallen to their lowest level in a century, a top pricing agency said. DRC officials said they will review their stance in three months.   Rethinking Germany’s debt brake. Freidrich Merz, whose center-right alliance won Germany’s Sunday elections, is consulting with the current legislature to explore lifting the country’s debt limit to allow for more military spending. Merz shied away from discussing changing the debt brake during the election. The vote delivered enough seats to groups opposed to lifting the debt limit for military spending that they could block such a measure in the new parliament, but the new members will not take office until after March 24.   Oversight policy on U.S. arms rescinded. The Trump administration repealed a February 2024 policy that required countries receiving U.S.-made weapons to give written assurances they would not use them to violate international humanitarian law and would help with the delivery of U.S. aid, according to an order seen by the Washington Post. Supporters of the policy said it pressured Israel to allow aid into Gaza. The White House, State Department, and Defense Department did not immediately comment.   Bangladesh-Pakistan trade breakthrough. The countries resumed direct bilateral trade for the first time since Bangladesh won independence from Pakistan in 1971. Relations have warmed under Bangladesh’s interim government of Muhammad Yunus, who was appointed after  protests ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina last August. Hasina and previous Bangladeshi rulers preferred to maintain close ties with India and more distant relations with Pakistan.

Vietnam Struggles to Avoid the Trump Administration’s Glare Vietnam’s rising trade surplus with the United States may threaten its close strategic and economic bilateral ties under the second Trump administration, CFR expert Joshua Kurlantzick writes for Asia Unbound.

The Day Ahead Previously stalled UN biodiversity talks resume in Rome.   New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters begins a visit to China.   U.S. House of Representatives committees and subcommittees hold hearings on birthright citizenship, U.S. trade policy, emerging global threats, and policies to counter China. The Asia-Pacific Forum on Sustainable Development begins in Thailand.

Governing Germany After a Far-Right Vote Surge Merz looks poised to lead his center-right alliance into a coalition with the Social Democrats, but he faces an emboldened far right, economic challenges, and crisis diplomacy over European security, CFR expert Liana Fix and CFR’s Jack Silverman write in this Expert Brief.

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