Saturday, August 31, 2024

Iran Update, August 30, 2024 Israel and Hamas are reportedly reviewing a draft agreement for the hostage-prisoner exchange component of ceasefire talks after working group-level negotiations over the exchange.

 

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Israel and Hamas are reportedly reviewing a draft agreement for the hostage-prisoner exchange component of ceasefire talks after working group-level negotiations over the exchange. 





The agreement states that Hamas should release 33 living hostages who are women, men over the age of 50, and hostages with serious medical conditions. If there are not 33 living hostages to return in these groups, the difference between the two should include the bodies of dead hostages. Israel has provided a list of 33 hostages to Hamas that the Israel says meet these conditions. In exchange, Israel will release “several hundred” Palestinian prisoners, including 150 serving life sentences for killing Israelis. Those who were sentenced to life in prison will be exiled and barred from returning to the Gaza Strip or the West Bank. Hamas has transferred a list of prisoners to Israel according to Israeli officials. Senior Israeli officials claimed that negotiations have made “significant progress” although no agreement has been reached yet.


Working-group talks have not resolved the issue of Israeli forces remaining along the Philadelphi Corridor. An unspecified senior official from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office reported that the Israeli security cabinet voted on August 29 in favor of retaining Israel’s presence along the Philadelphi Corridor, thus cementing an Israeli presence in the corridor as official policy. Israeli officials said on August 23 that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to withdraw Israeli forces from a one- to two-kilometer section of the Philadelphi Corridor during the first phase of the proposed ceasefire-hostage deal. Netanyahu’s insistence on an Israeli military presence along the Philadelphi Corridor has been one of the most significant sticking points in the negotiations. Netanyahu has said that retaining a presence in the corridor is required to achieve Israeli war aims.


Mediators are attempting to bridge the remaining gaps through “mediation formulas” before presenting a single draft proposal to Israel and Hamas to implement, according to unspecified senior Israeli officials cited by Walla. Unspecified senior US and Israeli officials also claimed that the agreement should meet “most” of Hamas’ demands, including a minimum six-week ceasefire, the release of hundreds of prisoners, the return of displaced Palestinians to their homes, the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, and rehabilitation and medical treatment in Egypt for wounded Hamas fighters.
 
 
Key Takeaways:
  1. Gaza Ceasefire Talks: Israel and Hamas are reportedly reviewing a draft agreement for the hostage-prisoner exchange component of ceasefire talks after working group-level negotiations over the exchange. Working-group talks have not resolved the issue of Israeli forces remaining along the Philadelphi Corridor. Mediators are attempting to bridge the remaining gaps in ceasefire talks through “mediation formulas” before presenting a single draft proposal to Israel and Hamas to implement.
  2. Philadelphi Corridor: An unspecified senior official from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office reported that the Israeli security cabinet voted on August 29 in favor of retaining Israel’s presence along the Philadelphi Corridor, thus cementing an Israeli presence in the corridor as official policy.
  3. Iranian Nuclear Program: An unspecified Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) official told Iraqi media that Iran is attempting to use its nuclear program to pressure Western countries as part of nuclear negotiations, which would be consistent with statements by the supreme leader and other Iranian officials indicating interest in renewed negotiations. It is not clear why this unspecified AEOI official would speak with Iraqi media before speaking to Iranian media. The level of access this official has within AEOI and Iranian policymaking is also unclear.

 
 
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The Iran Update aims to inform national security policy by providing timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments pertaining to Iran and its Axis of Resistance. This update covers political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. It also provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. The American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War will provide regular updates, including daily updates, as the crisis warrants.

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My Europe Europe Decoded Euroviews. Published on 29/08/2024 - 18:28 GMT+2•Updated 30/08/2024 - 9:12 GMT+2 Islamism will continue to pose a threat to liberal democracies in Europe. This is why A special police task force (SEK) after the fatal knife attack Friday at the festival in Solingen, August 2024

 My Europe

Europe Decoded

Euroviews. Islamism will continue to pose a threat to liberal democracies in Europe. This is why A special police task force (SEK) after the fatal knife attack Friday at the festival in Solingen, August 2024

Copyright AP Photo/Euronews


By Gülden Hennemann, political scientist, Head, Central Coordination Office for Measures against Extremism (ZKE) in Bavarian prison system

Published on 29/08/2024 - 18:28 GMT+2•Updated 30/08/2024 - 9:12 GMT+2


The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

Just as in the fight against right-wing extremism, clear lines must be drawn with Islamists, not just concerning the question of violence but regarding their stance on democratic core values, Gülden Hennemann writes.


Friday evening: a knife attack at the town festival in Solingen. Saturday morning: an arson attack on a synagogue in southern France. Sunday morning: the beginning of the long-anticipated major offensive by Hezbollah against Israel.


It is a sad weekend marked by Islamism and Islamist hatred. What all three events have in common: Islamist-inspired hatred against liberal democratic values and against Israel.


Given the increasing far-right extremist threat, the focus of politics has recently been on efforts to combat right-wing extremism.


Civil society has also loudly demonstrated its determination to fight racism, hostility towards people, and ethnic nationalism through countless demonstrations and various actions (from concerts to social media campaigns).



At the same time, there has been a noticeable silence from politics and civil society on the topic of Islamism.


On the contrary, many scientists, experts, authors, or journalists deliberately avoid the topic of Islamism out of fear because the public pressure on social media or the threats against themselves, friends or family are almost unbearable.


Especially since the terrorist attack by Hamas and its allied Islamist groups on 7 October of last year, any statement about Islamism, Israel, and Palestine feels like walking through a minefield.



Given the years of unchanged Islamist threat, however, this silence is the worst option imaginable. Because it either suggests approval or is a sign of cowardice. Both are existential threats to liberal democracies.


It is even more important that we finally address Islamism and its consequences, not just legally and criminally, because the world has been a different place since 7 October.


Decades of hatred

Even though investigations in Solingen are still ongoing and the exact background of the crime is unclear, many facts point to an Islamist-motivated terrorist attack.


The official media outlet of the so-called Islamic State (IS) terrorist militia has already claimed responsibility for the attack, presenting it as "revenge for Muslims in Palestine and elsewhere".



A look at the ideological history of Islamism shows that hatred of Israel and Jews, combined with the rejection of democratic values and liberal lifestyles, are core elements of Islamist ideology.


Since the last century, Islamists have systematically spread these ideas. First and foremost, through the writings and works of Sayyid Qutb (1906-1966), the chief ideologue of the Muslim Brotherhood and founder of modern Islamism in the 19th century, which is still referenced today for radicalisation purposes.


Since 7 October, there has been little discussion about these core elements of Islamism and Islamist terrorism ... even though this terrorist attack by Hamas & Co has the potential not only to reorder the Near and Middle East but also to trigger a new wave of Islamist radicalisation in Europe.


A masked miltant from Hamas carries his weapon during a rally by the group in the Shati Refugee Camp, April 2007


A masked miltant from Hamas carries his weapon during a rally by the group in the Shati Refugee Camp, April 2007AP Photo/Hatem Moussa

His essay "Our Battle with the Jews" has had a lasting influence on Islamist hatred of Jews and Israel, also because he refers to religious sources and traditions, thus obtaining the supposedly religious justification for this hatred.


Not to be forgotten: Abdullah Azzam (1941-1989), himself a Palestinian and the ideological and organisational mastermind of Al-Qaeda, explicitly called for the use of violence as a means of defending Muslim lands worldwide, particularly in Palestine against Israel.


And finally, there was also Yusuf al-Qaradawi (1926-2022), who not only promoted the emergence of a fundamentalism-oriented Muslim generation — especially in Europe — but was also one of the most prominent supporters of Hamas and explicitly advocated for the use of violence by Palestinians, including through suicide attacks.


However, since 7 October, there has been little discussion about these core elements of Islamism and Islamist terrorism.


And this, even though this terrorist attack by Hamas & Co has the potential not only to reorder the Near and Middle East but also to trigger a new wave of Islamist radicalisation in Europe.


Instead, political circles claim that Islamism and Islamist terrorism only arrived in Europe with the refugee movement in 2015.


Extremism hiding behind democratic laws


Even though Muslim antisemitism has increasingly become a problem in the wake of the refugee movements since 2015 and, combined with other psychosocial factors, provides fertile ground for Islamist radicalisation, this should not obscure the fact that Islamists have been systematically building their structures, expanding their networks, and increasing their influence in Europe, especially in the educational, social, and socio-political spheres, since the 1970s and especially since the 1980s.


We have thus had a growing European Islamism for decades, which is nourished by Islamist groups and movements — especially the Muslim Brotherhood — through anti-democratic, antisemitic, and anti-Western narratives. Islamist organisations are often shielded by the freedom of expression and religion guaranteed by democratic laws.


Police and ambulances near the scene where people were killed and injured in an attack at a festival in Solingen, August 2024


Police and ambulances near the scene where people were killed and injured in an attack at a festival in Solingen, August 2024Gianni Gattus/dpa via AP


And as long as they do not cross the boundaries of criminal law, they can continue to organise and network undisturbed, sometimes reaching the highest political levels.


They are often still consulted as partners and advisors on issues of integration or combating terrorism, partly because they publicly oppose violence in the name of religion.


Related

The polls are clear: While at war with Israel, Hamas defeated Abbas and Fatah


The far left (still) doesn’t understand the Middle East conflict

More than that: Islamist groups, such as those ideologically aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood, are still financially supported in many European countries and are considered legitimate representatives of Muslims on political and social levels.


Romantic reductionism legitimising crimes

In the context of the current Israel-Palestine conflict, the consequences of this Islamist networking are particularly evident.


It is organisations like the Palestinian Community in Germany (PGD) or the Samidoun network (Solidarity Network for Palestinian Prisoners), which is banned in Germany but still active across Europe, that claim to represent the interests of Palestinians but at their core spread hatred of Israel and Jews, thus aiding Islamist groups like Hamas.


It is these and similar organisations that aim to strongly emotionalise European societies, particularly to influence the public discourse in their own anti-Israel and Islamist interests and thus affect political decisions regarding Israel.


They receive public, political, and societal support, especially from the left spectrum. Thus, it can be observed how students, feminists, and LGBTQ+ activists, who are otherwise considered enlightened, have been used for months to legitimise Islamist-motivated rapes, killings, massacres, and abductions by remaining silent about these atrocities of 7 October, while simultaneously reducing the Islamist terrorism of Hamas & Co almost romantically to a form of self-defence against the alleged aggressor Israel.


These circles do not realise how they are legitimising Hamas & Co as supposedly rightful representatives of the Palestinians, while women, homosexuals, and dissidents have been oppressed and persecuted since Hamas took power in Gaza.

A pro-Palestinian protestor argues with parade staff while blocking the parade route during the NYC Pride March in New York, June 2024

A pro-Palestinian protestor argues with parade staff while blocking the parade route during the NYC Pride March in New York, June 2024Charles Sykes/2024 Invision via AP


That people who have been advocating for women's and LGBTQ+ rights for years and decades are now aligning with those who, out of Islamist conviction, is precisely against these rights and support the Islamist Hamas in Gaza is, therefore, a betrayal beyond comparison.


Particularly shocking is that these circles do not realise how they are legitimising Hamas & Co as supposedly rightful representatives of the Palestinians, while women, homosexuals, and dissidents have been oppressed and persecuted since Hamas took power in Gaza.


It is precisely these developments of recent months that highlight one thing: criticism of political developments in Israel, such as settlement policies or pro-Palestinian demonstrations, are important and legitimate.


However, it is dangerous if one becomes the mouthpiece of Islamists in the process and denies Israel its right to exist. This not only legitimises Islamist terrorism but also endangers the fundamental principles of democracy.


Don't give the extremists the satisfaction of silencing you

If we are to effectively combat a further rise of European Islamism and Islamist terrorism in the future, we must not only focus on legal and security measures but also finally address the ideological connections and thus expose Islamist narratives.


Just as in the fight against right-wing extremism, clear lines must be drawn with Islamists, not just concerning the question of violence but regarding their stance on democratic core values.


It is crucial that, on the one hand, the ability to think critically is more strongly promoted so that people can recognise Islamist propaganda and misinformation as such and that, on the other hand, a culture of debate and discussion is enabled, in which the long-term dangers of Islamist ideology to democracies are openly addressed and, above all, communicated.


Silence is not an option because then the Islamists and their accomplices would have achieved their goal.


Gülden Hennemann is a political scientist and former employee of the Bavarian Office for the Protection of the Constitution. She currently heads the Central Coordination Office for Measures against Extremism (ZKE) in the Bavarian prison system and its Operational Unit for Combating Extremism (OpEEx).


At Euronews, we believe all views matter. Contact us at view@euronews.com to send pitches or submissions and be part of the conversation.


Bloomberg Evening Briefing - August 31, 2024 - US inflation, Presidential contest and more...

 

Bloomberg

Four weeks after a Wall Street mini-panic sent stocks spiraling (in a frenzy later dismissed by some as an ill-advised temper tantrum), this August will go down as a rare example of a late summer month brimming with confidence for the future. Levels of conviction are soaring across assets. In one example, exchange-traded funds tracking government debt, corporate credit and equities have now risen in unison for four straight months. It’s the longest stretch of correlated gains since at least 2007. Up 25% in the past 12 months, the S&P 500 has never climbed this much in the run-up to the first interest-rate cut of an easing cycle. So, is it to be a soft landing then? “Everything has to go right,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “We need to continue to have trend or above-trend economic growth. We need to have a labor market that’s not too hot, not too cold. And that then would allow for the consumer to continue to consume. Those things all have to be in a perfect balance.” David E. Rovella

Here are today’s top stories

The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation rose at a mild pace and household spending picked up in July. The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which strips out volatile food and energy items, increased 0.2% from June, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data out Friday. On a three-month annualized basis—a metric economists say paints a more accurate picture of the trajectory of inflation—it advanced 1.7%, the slowest this year. More cement for a September rate cut it would seem.

But not everyone is so sanguine. While a conga line of helicopters chopped along Fire Island toward the Hamptons, some investors on Wall Street were still at their desks Labor Day Friday, buying protection against a September selloff. An options trader or traders bought call spreads on the Cboe Volatility Index—or VIX—expiring in September, spending upwards of $9 million to protect against a spike in the gauge of S&P 500 volatility past 22 (its current level is just over 15). A jump like that would bring the VIX back to where it was Aug. 9, when the market was recovering from a sharp selloff.

US Vice President Kamala Harris has sustained the burst of momentum she brought to the presidential contest and is leading or tied with Republican Donald Trump in each of the seven states most likely to decide the race. The Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll—conducted across probable battleground states after last week’s Democratic National Convention—found Harris has largely eliminated Trump’s advantage on key economic issues and established herself as more trusted than her rival to protect personal freedoms.

Kamala Harris greets audience members at a campaign rally at United Auto Workers Local 900 in Wayne, Michigan, on Aug. 8. Photographer: Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Goldman Sachs plans to fire a few hundred more employees in the coming weeks. The fresh round of terminations would bring total dismissals by the bank in 2024 to about 3% to 4% of its workforce. That’s in line with the bank’s typical approach as it seeks to make room for new talent by sending some existing staffers to the sidewalk. The annual firing exercise was briefly suspended in the middle of the Covid pandemic.

Brazil’s top court ordered the immediate suspension of X (formerly Twitter) in the country after Elon Musk defied orders to name a legal representative there for the social network. The banning of the platform caps a months-long feud between the right-wing billionaire and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. X has been contributing to “an environment of total impunity and lawless land in Brazilian social networks, including during the 2024 local elections,” Moraes wrote in his ruling. “Extremist groups and digital militias” have been using the platform for “massive dissemination of Nazi, racist, fascist, hateful and anti-democratic speeches.” 

Elon Musk Photograph: Bloomberg

China is considering allowing homeowners to refinance as much as $5.4 trillion of mortgages to lower borrowing costs for millions of families and boost consumption. Under the plan, homeowners would be able to renegotiate terms with their current lenders before January, when banks typically reprice mortgages. They would also be allowed to refinance with a different bank for the first time since the global financial crisis. Authorities are ramping up a push to reduce mortgage costs after the central bank encouraged such support last year and banks responded with a rare rate cut on outstanding mortgages of first homes.

If you’ve ever suspected that your crypto-obsessed friend might be a psychopath, you may be on to something. Digital-asset holders tend to exhibit higher levels of “dark” personality traits such as narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy and sadism, according to a recent academic paper by researchers at the University of Toronto and the University of Miami. “The results presented here suggest that cryptocurrency ownership is associated with several non-normative and arguably maladaptive characteristics,” the report said.

What you’ll need to know tomorrow

TikTok Turned Pimple Patches Into Obsession

In June, Eva Maguire posted a video to TikTok of her putting star-shaped pimple patches on her face. First, she stuck them to a few blemishes on her cheeks and forehead. Then she applied two more on the outer corner of each eye, dabbing silver eyeshadow on those and her eyelids. The overall effect turned her complexion into a glittery galaxy. Maguire’s is one of more than 27,000 videos on TikTok featuring Starface’s signature hydrocolloid pimple patches, which come in a range of shapes and colors. Puzzling as it might seem to older generations, many of these posts feature Generation Z and Gen Alpha creators using the patches as makeup and fashion statements.

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Prospect The new fascism Local authorities and the police are facing a globally organised far right they barely understand By Paul Mason August 28, 2024

 Prospect 

The new fascism

Local authorities and the police are facing a globally organised far right they barely understand

By Paul Mason

August 28, 2024



“I think the protests are great,” the far-right influencer James Goddard told subscribers to his Telegram channel, in a video the day after the Sunderland riot. “But we need to clean up the optics... Number one, please stay away from religious buildings, places of worship, mosques, Islamic centres. Just stay away from them. You’re going to cause a conflict that we don’t need to have... yet.”


In his videos, Goddard—who now lives in Thailand, and was temporarily banned from X on 31st July for using racial slurs—specialises in menace, and as he pronounced the word “yet”, there was menace aplenty.


“I’m not inciting people to do anything,” he continued, before advising those who were taking part in “acts of civil disobedience” to leave their phones at home, to cover their faces and to avoid storing right-wing memorabilia where they live. “If I was there,” he said, “I would be targeting all of the government buildings and the buildings of the private companies who have made millions from the migrant invasion.”


After posting this video, Goddard circulated a hit list of 30 law firms and refugee advice centres to be targeted, but then deleted it, later telling his followers that the protests were probably organised by “the state”.


On 6th August, after Muslims in Birmingham staged a show of force to resist threats to their local mosque, Goddard delivered an apoplectic rant about eradicating the British Muslim community in its entirety: “When we win—and we will—their treachery won’t be forgotten, their violence won’t be forgotten. We will take their properties. We will take their money. We will jail them. And we will send them back to the dusty, third-world shitholes that they come from.”


Goddard is neither the most powerful nor the most profitable among the far-right “influencers” who stoked violent unrest across Britain after 30th July, the day following a stabbing attack in which three children were murdered. But his Telegram channel provides a case study in the information dynamics of modern fascism—that is, of fanatical racists and misogynists with an overt project to violently overthrow democracy.


Anti-immigration rioters clash with police © PA Images / Alamy Anti-immigration rioters clash with police © PA Images / Alamy


Much of Goddard’s content is reposted from other far-right channels, including those of American white supremacists and Russian ethnonationalists. It falls into three categories: racial slanders, reports of racist violence and triggers for outrage. Shortly after his diatribe against Muslims, for example, Goddard posted a video of a young blonde British woman saying she had been “done by five black guys in one night”.


You may not have heard of Goddard. But it is figures like him, rather than the formal leadership of hierarchical fascist groups, who have been pivotal in triggering the spread of the riots, says Joe Mulhall, the director of research at the anti-fascism NGO Hope not Hate.


“This is a vast, decentralised network of activists existing primarily online but sometimes breaking out into the offline world,” Mulhall tells me. “These individuals consume content, create content and sometimes act. And while it has no formal structure, the network has figureheads, super-sharers, weather-makers who direct the network, so that it operates like a school of fish.”


To follow the links from Goddard’s Telegram channel is to enter a parallel information universe. Here, a civil war predicted by Elon Musk on X has already begun. Here, every rape trial involves a Muslim perpetrator. Here, Birmingham is an “occupied city” and “Covid was ethnically targeted to spare Jews.”


On Goddard’s channel and across the British far-right infosphere, a recurrent theme is an alleged “two-tier policing”, in which any instance of leniency towards Muslim offenders, together with the tolerant policing style adopted towards the Gaza protests, is said to evidence systematic “wokeness” and prejudice against white Christians. As hundreds of rioters are sentenced, and as police move to coordinate with Muslim communities to defend their places of worship, this theme has become the far right’s signature tune.


We are no longer dealing with fascism as a Führer-led hierarchy, as it was in Nazi Germany, but as a rhizomic structure: the roots communicate with other roots independently of the tree trunk, and the modern equivalent of Mein Kampf is created by its readers in real time. It leaves the local institutions of democracy—police forces and councils—facing a globally organised force they barely understand.


Modern fascism is profoundly theoretical


“One of the hallmarks of post-organisational networks is that they’re fundamentally transnational,” says Mulhall. “So while the riots are hyperlocal and specific to communities, the networks driving them are global—and this heightens the sense of crisis. The rioters are not just angry about halal chicken nuggets being served in a school in Bradford. They’re angry about halal chicken nuggets at a school in Minneapolis or Budapest.”


The most important point for understanding where this goes next is that modern fascism is profoundly theoretical. In the late 1970s, the average National Front skinhead was someone who hated the smell of Asian food, respected the police, professed to be a British nationalist and wanted an end to primary immigration. The group’s members knew they had no prospect of electoral victory whatsoever, but they could terrorise immigrant communities and get their kicks in the process.


Today’s fascism is internationalist by design and overtly structured around a theory of victory. When Goddard peddles the fantasy of eradicating Muslims from the UK, and speaks of the moment “when we win”, he is playing on the central tenet of the Great Replacement theory.


Formulated in 2011 by the French writer Renaud Camus, the theory asserts that non-white immigration to Europe and the United States is not an accident but a design. It is a plan to replace white Christians by importing non-white communities with higher birth rates.


The aftermath of violent unrest in Rotherham this August. 

Previous page: police fending off rioters in the town. Image: © Milo Chandler / Alamy The aftermath of violent unrest in Rotherham this August. Previous page: police fending off rioters in the town. Image: © Milo Chandler / Alamy


One of the biggest mistakes we made in the 1990s was to assume that right-wing populism could act as a firewall against full-blown, violent and overt fascism—that however unpalatable its politics were, parties like Ukip and the predecessors to France’s National Rally were at least channelling racist anger into electoral, and therefore not violent, ends.


For about a decade, the firewall has been on fire. The ideologies of right-wing conservatism and populism have become magnetised towards the dogmas of fascism, with the “replacement” myth a central premise.


This framing massively raises the stakes. Fascists in the 1970s saw Pakistani and Caribbean immigrants as a threat to white people’s jobs and monoculture. For Camus—and for British activists who propagate his ideas—immigrants are reframed as colonists, occupiers or perpetrators of “white genocide”. This, in turn, legitimises fantasies of extreme violence against them, which can be propagated by social media users who may not even consider themselves part of the movement. A 41-year-old female care worker from Northampton published, and later deleted, a post on X: “Mass deportation now, set fire to all the fucking hotels full of the bastards for all I care... If that makes me racist, so be it.”


The rest of this new fascist mindset follows logically from Camus’s premise: migrants are “occupiers”, and those collaborating with them are liberals, human rights lawyers and feminists. Lawyers protect the human rights of minority communities. Feminists not only -suppress the white birth rate but have overturned the natural order of things under which white alpha males get the prettiest girlfriends.


Behind the lawyers, the liberals and the feminists stand the ultimate enemy: the cultural Marxists who have plotted the takeover. This allegation is a straight lift from US paleoconservatism, which alleges that the Marxist left, having abandoned the proletariat, seeks—in league with a shadowy global Jewish elite—to undermine western society by promoting multiculturalism, reproductive rights, trans rights and homosexuality.


The genocidal implications of far-right influencers’ demands are obvious, and not surprising, to those who’ve studied the Nazis


For the theorists of modern fascism, the recipe for action at this stage is “preparation”: training oneself to fight; stockpiling weapons, food and terrorism manuals; and committing, where necessary, symbolic violence. Although some of this summer’s rioters have been hapless, hardcore activists understand that the most effective form of violence is gesture. The torching of refugee hotels resulting in no injuries is a warning of what will happen when the rioters can block the exits and the police are gone. The trashing of an Uber driver’s car is a message to all Uber drivers. The tactical violence of today is a practice run for the moment “when we win”, as Goddard puts it. 


And that fantasy of victory forms the capstone of the new fascist ideology. Its adherents dream of a “Day X”, when the rules-based international order ends with a global, ethnic civil war. Since the first weekend of August, when Belfast and a dozen English cities saw police struggle to control racist rioting, the global network of the far right has become fascinated with the prospect that it will begin here, with the violence in Britain. That is why it is so dangerous for Elon Musk to claim “civil war is inevitable” to his 193.8m followers on X.


Taken together, the Great Replacement theory, the prepping, the symbolic violence, Day X and a thread of violent misogyny (which is too broad for this article to explain fully) form a “social myth” in the sense used by the French philosopher Georges Sorel. In Reflections on Violence, published in 1906, Sorel argued that all revolutionary movements need to be structured around “anticipations of the future”. That is, a belief in something yet to come that, whether it happens or not, shapes all actions in the present, gains immense mobilising power and is irrefutable by reason.


Many aspects of this modern fascist mythology are adapted from 20th-century precedents. It is not lost on historians of fascism that “cultural Marxism” today plays the exact function that the concept of Judeo-Bolshevism did for the Nazis: it is a shadowy global force that is responsible for all the evils of the world.


Echoes of history: The National Front on the march in the 1980s Image: © Jim Rice / AvalonRed Echoes of history: The National Front on the march in the 1980s. Image: © Jim Rice / AvalonRed


Likewise, the genocidal implications of far-right influencers’ demands for the jailing, expropriation and deportation of Muslims and refugees are obvious, and not surprising, to those who’ve studied the Nazis. Odilo Globocnik, the commander of Operation Reinhard, the plan to exterminate Polish Jewry, only ever wrote of “sending the Jews across the Bug River.” He made no mention—either in his reports or orders—of actually killing the 1.7m Jews he murdered at Treblinka, Belzec and Sobibor.


What is new, however, is the elevation of violent misogyny to coequal status with racism; the determination to “prepare”, rather than simply march out of a bierkeller in a premature attempted putsch; and above all, the transnationalism. Modern fascists understand that, by attacking their own democratic and multi-ethnic societies together, they can speed the day when the global conflagration begins.


They have absorbed the principle outlined by the Nazi jurist Carl Schmitt: that true sovereignty lies with he who can suspend democracy. Hence, they can see the authoritarian Hindu nationalism of Narendra Modi and the murderous Russian nationalism of Vladimir Putin as complementary to their task in the UK—especially when their shared disinformation machines attack their mutual enemies.


And of course, the internet, the great digital accelerator of individualism and chaos, creates an immersive life-world of prejudice and delusion. When its participants find each other in the flesh, this can drive them to participate in extreme behaviour that would not be predictable by observing their actions in the everyday world.


What we are facing, then, is not a remnant of something. This is not just a hangover from the days of racist comedians in working men’s clubs. It is a self-replicating far-right ideology and, as the historian Ernst Nolte wrote of Nazism, has “staggering logical coherence” for those who accept its twisted premise.


A key source of fascism’s strength in the 21st century is technological proficiency. The far right utilises cross-border digital networks to a far greater extent than do social democrats or the European left. Its technological infrastructure is currently superior to anything a democratic state might use to counter it. Amil Khan says his company, Valent Projects, which provides tools to detect online disinformation, has identified 12 networks currently amplifying far-right messaging in the UK. Together, they routinely reach six million people. And they have been constructed carefully over time.


“We can see those networks have promoted Russian positions at the start of the Ukraine war, then Reform during elections,” says Khan. “They also amplify a bunch of fringe ‘news’ sites, some of which are reported to be funded by US far-right figures.”


Every statement by the authorities is met with a tactical counter-narrative, tested and refined in real time. Take, for instance, Keir Starmer’s speech warning of a crackdown on rioters. Starmer was quickly portrayed as a traitor, determined to victimise white Britons. His words were montaged with footage of hooded Muslim youths marching through Birmingham.


Valent’s research shows that, whereas the unedited version of Starmer’s speech achieved 500,000 views via the social media accounts of mainstream broadcasters, the montaged, far-right versions were seen by millions. This content was then targeted algorithmically at low-income men over 50 living in English market and suburban towns.


The protean nature of the threat demands that both the state and civil society evolve new forms of self-defence. The most obvious moves are to coordinate public order policing nationally; to enact new riot policing tactics that minimise the danger to life and limb for ethnic minority communities; and to formalise security arrangements between the police and mosques, along the lines the Community Security Trust already operates for the Jewish community.


To tackle the online hate, incitement and disinformation, we need the full provisions of the Online Safety Act (2023), passed last year, to be activated immediately. Though the provisions are weaker than what we now need, if applied they would allow us to prosecute social networks which refuse to mitigate the risk of spreading violence and to press criminal charges against bosses who refuse to engage.


That the majority of Britons reject the new fascist ideology is without doubt. The scale and peaceful character of the anti-fascist mobilisations on 7th August, as well as the depth of media sympathy for them, demonstrate this, as does polling data indicating that just 7 per cent of Britons think the riots were justified. The organised far right mustered 30,000 people in Trafalgar Square on 27th July, so a rough estimate of their close periphery might be four times that figure.


Anti-racism protesters in Walthamstow, east London, 

respond to the far-right rioting that shocked the country. Image: © Aubrey Fagon / Alamy Anti-racism protesters in Walthamstow, east London, respond to the far-right rioting that shocked the country. Image: © Aubrey Fagon / Alamy


Now the rioting is hopefully suppressed, Britain needs an urgent effort to rebuild social cohesion. Emeka Forbes, a senior staffer at the Together Coalition, says, “We want to see civil society and government working closely together in the coming weeks and months to equip and empower local communities to build connection and trust, through moments of togetherness and efforts to bridge divides.”


The post-riot clean-ups, the viral spread of humour to pillory the most hapless rioters and the public embraces between people of different faiths show how such moments can begin. This is only the start of a long battle, however.  One glance at the social media content coming from the ex-industrial communities that saw the worst violence between 3rd and 5th August shows that the Sorelian myth of civil war has strengthened, not dissipated. And as dozens of rioters go through the courts, it is clear that there is no single profile of those who engaged in the violence.


The scale of the task ahead may be understood from the fact that, on 7th August, X unbanned James Goddard. He is, as I write, fulminating against Islam and the police, in his videos seen by tens of thousands of followers. And he is just one node in an ever-evolving network of hate.


Paul Mason is the author of How to Stop Fascism (Allen Lane) and associate fellow in Defence and Resilience at the Council on Geostrategy