Recent Iranian polls show that moderate
Masoud Pezeshkian is leading over
ultraconservative hardliner Saeed Jalili in the
Iranian presidential race.
The runoff election will occur on July 5. The Iranian Students PollingAgency (ISPA) published a poll on July
4 showing that Pezeshkian has a
5.6 percent lead over Jalili. ISPA notably predicted
accurately that Pezeshkian and Jalili would win the
highest and second highest number
of votes, respectively, in the first round of voting onJune
28. ISPA also correctly predicted that pragmatic
hardliner Mohammad Bagher Ghalibafwould receive
significantly less votes
than Pezeshkian and Jalili. The July 4 ISPA poll is
consistent with CTP-ISW's observation on July 1 that
Pezeshkian appears to be gaining momentum
aheadof the July 5 runoffelection.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei must decide whether he will permit Pezeshkian to win the election if Pezeshkian wins the most votes. Khamenei recently expressed foreign and nuclear policy views on June 25 that closely align with Jalili’s views, suggesting that Khamenei endorses Jalili. Khamenei furthermore indirectly criticized Pezeshkian’s campaign policies on the same date. Khamenei’s opposition to some of Pezeshkian’s policies could lead him to directly intervene in the upcoming election and install Jalili as president.
Israel and Hamas have resumed negotiations over a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Qatar sent Hamas on June 25 a revised ceasefire proposal that was based on an earlier US-backed proposal. The new proposal includes several unspecified amendments to the original text. Hamas has reviewed the new proposal and sent its response to Israel. Israeli leaders plan to discuss the Hamas response and send a delegation for further discussions. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a phone call with US President Joe Biden on July 4 to discuss the new proposal.
Hamas appears to have changed part of its maximalist negotiating position in its response to the new proposal. An anonymous Israeli official said that Hamas is no longer demanding the full withdrawal of Israeli forces during the first phase of the proposed ceasefire. This phase includes a six-week ceasefire and the release of some Hamas-held hostages. The phasing of the original US-backed proposal has been a point of disagreement between Israel and Hamas.
Significant obstacles remain to securing a ceasefire agreement, however. Lebanese media reported that some of the changes in the new proposal do not “affect the essential issues” but are meant to preserve negotiations. An Israeli official similarly told Axios that ”serious challenges” remain and that it could take several weeks to reach a deal.
Iran and the Axis of Resistance are conducting an information operation meant to prevent Israel from launching a major military offensive into Lebanon. An anonymous commander from the Islamic Resistance in Iraq told Western media that there would be an “escalation for escalation” if the IDF goes into Lebanon. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq is a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. The commander also told Western media that the coalition has sent military advisers and experts to Lebanon to help Lebanese Hezbollah prepare for a greater conflict against the IDF. These remarks come after two unspecified Iraqi officials told Associated Press that some advisers are already in Lebanon to support Hezbollah. Iranian-backed Iraqi and Lebanese officials separately told the Associated Press that thousands of Iranian-backed fighters from across the Middle East would join the war between Israel and Hezbollah. That the Axis of Resistance is speaking to Western media reflects its intent to message to Western audiences.
| 
No comments:
Post a Comment