Conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts : Ecuador and Niger August 19, 2023

 

ON OUR RADAR  Conflict trends as seen by Crisis Group analysts

ECUADOR  Pedro Briones, a local organiser for the Citizen Revolution party, was shot dead Monday, the fourth assassination of a political figure in the space of three weeks as 20 August elections draw near. Presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was killed last week; a legislative candidate and a mayor were gunned down before that. Six Colombians with alleged ties to organised crime have been arrested in the Villavicencio assassination. Villavicencio was an outspoken advocate of tough approaches to drug trafficking, corruption and other illicit activity. Crisis Group expert Glaeldys Gonzalez Calanche says the spate of murders highlights the salience of criminal violence as a political issue. It is likely to benefit candidates who promote heavy-handed security policies.

NIGER  A group of West African countries met this week to discuss strategy for military intervention in Niger, after the junta the ignored an ultimatum the nations had set demanding reinstatement of President Mohamed Bazoum. Bazoum was deposed in a coup on 26 July. The West African bloc would prefer negotiations as a means of restoring democratic government but failing that is considering force. Authorities in Burkina Faso and Mali, who themselves seized power in military takeovers, have vowed to come to the Nigerien junta’s defence should external actors try to dislodge it. Crisis Group expert Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim says outside powers concerned with a peaceful resolution to Niger’s crisis should press urgently for dialogue so as to avert an armed conflict.