Taliban soldier standing guard at a ceremony for the second anniversary of the takeover of Kabul, Afghanistan, August 2023
Ali Khara / ReutersForeign Affairs has recently published a number of articles on how the United States should engage with the Taliban government in Afghanistan, extremist forces within the regime, how the West can help ordinary Afghans, and the fate of the country’s women. To complement these essays, we asked a broad pool of experts for their take. As with previous surveys, we approached dozens of authorities with expertise relevant to the question at hand, along with leading generalists in the field. Participants were asked to state whether they agreed or disagreed with a proposition and to rate their confidence level in their opinion. Their answers are below.
DEBATE STATEMENT
The United States should normalize relations with the Taliban government.
Abdulkader Sinno
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 9
Associate Professor of Political Science and Middle Eastern Studies at Indiana University
The United States would benefit from a working relationship with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. It could lead to the...Read MoreAdela Raz
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Visiting Fellow at the Hudson Institute and Director of the Afghanistan Policy Lab at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
For the United States, a country that leads the free world and upholds the principles of democracy and human rights,...Read MoreAhmad Nader Nadery
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 9
Senior Fellow at the Wilson Center and Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University
As a former peace negotiator who has studied and closely followed the Taliban’s attitude and position in relation to other...Read MoreAnand Gopal
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 5
Assistant Research Professor at Arizona State University
The United States should build a foreign policy based on supporting democracy and egalitarianism. The Taliban regime is both undemocratic...Read MoreAparne Pande
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Director of the Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia at the Hudson Institute
I strongly disagree with the notion that normalizing ties with an ideological organization (the Taliban) will somehow moderate their views...Read MoreAshley J. Tellis
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 9
Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Normalization should be contingent on the Taliban agreeing to upholding certain standards of behavior—which to date has proven elusive....Ashley Jackson
NEUTRAL, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Co-director at the Centre on Armed Groups
This is the wrong question. The real question is, What are the United States’ foreign policy objectives in Afghanistan and...Read MoreBarbara Elias
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Associate Professor at Bowdoin College and former Afghanistan Analyst at the National Security Archive
Official recognition will not shift the Taliban’s policies toward women, aid, or al Qaeda. The Taliban are reliably obstinate and...Read MoreBelquis Ahmadi
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Senior Program Officer at the United States Institute of Peace
Normalizing relations with the Taliban will further empower the group and will be rewarding a terror group. Furthermore, it will...Read MoreBridget Coggins
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 5
Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Santa Barbara
As the United States considers its future relations with the Taliban, it should look to its history with North Korea....Read MoreBruce Hoffman
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
They are a criminal, misogynistic, homophobic, religiously intolerant, terrorist organization that harbors terrorists inimical to the United States....C. Christine Fair
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Professor at Georgetown University
Absolutely nothing can be gained from working with the Taliban. I am rather bemused by the proposition. The vast experience...Read MoreCarter Malkasian
NEUTRAL, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Chair of the Defense Analysis Department at the Naval Postgraduate School
There is little harm in normalizing relations and there is little benefit. All in all, communication and embassies reduce misunderstandings....Read MoreColin P. Clarke
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Director of Research at the Soufan Group
The United States should not normalize relations with the Taliban government in Afghanistan. While it is clear that the Taliban...Read MoreCorri Zoli
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 2
Part Time Instructor at the College of Arts and Sciences’ Forensic and National Security Sciences Institute at Syracuse University
Since the tragic 2021 U.S. withdrawal, the United States has precious little leverage over the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the...Read MoreDaniel Byman
NEUTRAL, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 6
Professor at Georgetown University and Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
The question to me is under what conditions the United States should normalize relations. Normalization is something the Taliban seek,...Read MoreDipali Mukhopadhyay
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 9
Associate Professor at the University of Minnesota
A move toward normalization would be a mistake, as it would reward the Taliban regime without improving the likelihood of...Read MoreEdward N. Luttwak
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
ENL Associates
It is not hard to have relations with the Taliban chief. But it is useless....Elliott Ackerman
NEUTRAL, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 5
Contributing writer at The Atlantic
The United States should normalize relations with the Taliban on a conditions-based framework by which the Taliban would commit to...Read MoreFarah Pandith
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 9
Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
The Taliban regime is a terrorist organization. If the United States normalizes relations with this terrorist organization, it is putting...Read MoreFernando Travesí
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Executive Director of the International Center for Transitional Justice
The Taliban came to power illegitimately and by force. They have committed and continue to commit systematic human rights violations....Read MoreFotini Christia
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Ford International Professor of the Social Sciences at MIT
Graeme Smith
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 6
Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group
Forget the politicians from the old regime who are pushing the United States and its allies back to war in...Read MoreIan Bremmer
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 4
President of the Eurasia Group
Jacqueline L. Hazelton
STRONGLY AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Executive Editor of the International Security Journal at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center
The only reason for the United States to continue to shun the Taliban government of Afghanistan is self-righteousness. Governments interact...Read MoreJames B. Cunningham
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council
Jason Lyall
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
James Wright Chair of Transnational Studies at Dartmouth College
Recognition of the Taliban government should be the ultimate goal, but normalization is a process, not a destination, and one...Read MoreJavid Ahmad
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and Nonresident Scholar at the Middle East Institute
Two years in, the Taliban have now firmly entrenched themselves and dictate Afghanistan’s fate. While the conscious choice to let...Read MoreJennifer Brick Murtazashvili
NEUTRAL, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Professor of International Affairs at the University of Pittsburgh
President Joe Biden has shown disdain for Afghanistan, and his administration’s disastrous withdrawal damaged U.S. credibility. As a result, the...Read MoreJohn R. Allen
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Retired General in the U.S. Marine Corps General, Former Commander of U.S. Forces – Afghanistan
The United States should not normalize relations with the Taliban under any circumstances. Where possible, the U.S. government should work...Read MoreJohn Waterbury
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 5
Global Professor of Political Science in New York University Abu Dhabi and former President of the American University of Beirut
Normalize needs to be defined.
...Kate Bateman
NEUTRAL, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Senior Expert at the United States Institute of Peace
The United States should not normalize relations now (if this means granting formal recognition), but it should expand its engagement...Read MoreKathy Gannon
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Author and journalist, Former Director for Pakistan and Afghanistan for the Associated Press
By normalize I don’t mean full diplomatic relations, but I do think the United States should return to Kabul, open...Read MoreKenneth Roth
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Former Executive Director of Human Rights Watch and Visiting Professor at the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs
Normalizing relations with the Taliban would tacitly endorse their banishment of women and girls from most aspects of public life...Read MoreManizha Wafeq
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Founder of the Afghan Women’s Trade Caravan
If the Afghan people and EU countries know that the United States is not supportive of the Taliban, they will...Read MoreMasuda Sultan
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 7
Women’s rights activist and Co-Founder of Unfreeze Afghanistan
Afghanistan is again ruled by the Taliban despite a 20-year war with the United States that unseated them in 2001....Read MoreMax Boot
AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 5
Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
Nipa Banerjee
STRONGLY AGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Senior Fellow and Professional in Residence in the School of International Development at the University of Ottawa
My answer is based on the assumption that “normalization of relations with the Taliban” does not imply immediate diplomatic recognition...Read MoreP. Michael McKinley
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan
My answer is predicated on current circumstances; should they begin to change, the question should be revisited....Paula Dobriansky
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Senior Fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center
The Taliban carry out acts of terror, have destroyed Afghan society, and continue to brutally suppress the fundamental rights of...Read MoreRichard Fontaine
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
CEO of the Center for a New American Security
The United States should engage with the Taliban when doing so might lead to better outcomes. But diplomatic normalization is...Read MoreRobert D. Crews
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Professor of History at Stanford University
Normalizing relations with the Taliban would bring no benefit to the United States or to Afghan society. Between President Donald...Read MoreSarah Chayes
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Former Special Assistant to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Afghanistan
For the United States to normalize relations now would not help ordinary Afghan citizens. Instead, it would send an unmistakable...Read MoreSeth Jones
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 9
Senior Vice President at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
The United States should not normalize relations with a government that remains a state sponsor of terrorist groups and has...Read MoreShaharzad Akbar
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 10
Executive Director of Rawadari
Shivshankar Menon
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 8
Visiting Professor at Ashoka University
Nothing in our previous experience of talks, agreements, and concessions to the Taliban by the United States and allies suggests...Read MoreTess Bridgeman
STRONGLY DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 9
Co-Editor in Chief of Just Security and Senior Fellow at the Reiss Center on Law and Security at the NYU School of Law
Starting with first principles, the United States has no duty to normalize relations with the Taliban, who overthrew an elected...Read MoreThomas Barfield
DISAGREE, CONFIDENCE LEVEL 9
Professor of Anthropology at Boston University
The Taliban have displayed a positive genius for finding ways to implement policies that alienate those who wish for better...Read More
No comments:
Post a Comment