The Washington Post : Opinion Erdogan won Turkey’s election. But this is not the end of the story. By Asli Aydintasbas May 29, 2023 at 4:39 p.m. EDT

 The Washington Post

Opinion  Erdogan won Turkey’s election. But this is not the end of the story.

By Asli Aydintasbas

May 29, 2023 at 4:39 p.m. EDT

Supporters of the President Recep Tayyip Erdogan celebrate in Istanbul on Sunday. (Emrah Gurel/AP)

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This past weekend, Turkey’s voters rejected liberal democracy in favor of populism.

Sunday’s runoff in the country’s presidential elections yielded a clear win for Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Fifty-two percent of Turkey’s voters said they approved of President Erdogan’s pledge to Make Turkey Great Again. Despite obvious economic mismanagement, they believed Erdogan would steer Turkey toward a path of imperial grandeur.

Erdogan used all the advantages of being an incumbent — state resources, media control, favorable election laws — to beat up on his opponent. His rival, 74-year-old Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is a former civil servant who emerged as the lead candidate after a more popular opponent, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, was subjected to a sham trial in January 2022 and disqualified from running.

During the campaign — possibly Turkey’s most divisive — Kilicdaroglu was targeted for his Alevi identity, accused by Erdogan of being pro-LGBTQ and of being supported by “terrorists.” In campaign rallies, Erdogan showed fake videos that depict Kurdish separatist PKK leaders singing the opposition’s campaign song.

“So what if it is a fake?” Erdogan said.

Fareed Zakaria: Turkey points to a global trend: Free and unfair elections

Turkey’s geopolitical orientation was also on the ballot. Erdogan said President Biden was supporting his rivals, while the opposition complained of Russian interference, with Kilicdaroglu going so far as to tweet in Russian warning Moscow to stay out of the race. Erdogan had been increasingly drifting from the transatlantic orbit and developing closer ties with Russia. To stave off Turkey’s economic problems, he managed to secure financial backing from Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in the form of central bank loans, which allowed him to provide handouts and wage increases in the run-up to elections.

It was therefore a win not just for the Turkish leader but also for the global club of autocracies.

This is not the end of the story for Turkey, however. Erdogan might be in power for another five years, and those five years will almost certainly further hollow out institutions and entrench authoritarian political habits in the country’s psyche. But the election was closely fought, even if it was not free and fair.

While Erdogan might well see the results as an approval for his domestic policies and his nonaligned geopolitical course, he should not get overconfident. The country is deeply polarized and though a slim majority was swayed by his populist message, an economic reckoning looms. Turkey’s central bank reserves are once again in the negative territory. Economists are worried about currency devaluation or capital controls to prevent a financial panic over the next few months.

“Turkey will break your heart,” an exiled Turkish journalist warned me more than two decades ago.

It has — over and over again. Sunday, it happened one more time.