Think Tank reports on the invasion of Ukraine covering the period from February 2022 onwards,

 Think Tank reports on the invasion of Ukraine

 

The impact of the Kakhovka dam breach on the new Ukrainian counteroffensive; the worrying rise of Russian state-sponsored mercenary forces; pursuing justice for international crimes in Ukraine; Ukraine’s cyber defence; reconstructing Ukraine by creating a freer, more prosperous, and secure future; the continuing effects of sanctions on Russia; and how to keep Europe safe after the war are some of the topics dealt with in the present update.

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Think Tank reports on the invasion of Ukraine

28 June 2023 Think Tank Review gsclibrary

This is a non-exhaustive collection of Think Tanks reports on the invasion of Ukraine, covering the period from February 2022 onwards, which is regularly updated:

Ukraine sunflower.

 

28.6.2023

Center for Strategic & International Studies

The impact of the Kakhovka dam breach on the new Ukrainian counteroffensive

The author argues that while it won't stop the offensive, the breach causes a significant delay. Russia's defenses strengthen, complicating Ukraine's task. The flooding poses challenges, altering the river's conditions and logistics. A viable offensive in Kherson Oblast is unlikely for weeks.

European Union Institute for Security Studies

Dogs of war: Russia’s corporate warriors in armed conflicts

The author finds that the role of state-sponsored irregular armed groups in Russia’s strategy to extend its influence abroad has been increasing since the annexation of Crimea and the Donbas war against Ukraine in 2014/2015 and that Russia’s ‘corporate warriors’ embody the fusion of business interests and military power. He argues that European policymakers should be concerned about the rise of these mercenary armed forces, and in particular the Wagner Group, due to their dangerous and negative impact on regional stability and security.

VOX Ukraine

Foreign support to Ukraine: evidence from a database of military, financial, and humanitarian aid

How large is the support for Ukraine? Who are the most supportive governments? What type of support do countries offer? The article sheds light on support rendered to Ukraine so far.

GLOBSEC Policy Institute

Ukraine’s cyber defence: insights on private sector contributions since the Russian invasion

This brief outlines some key takeaways from the active private sector participation in Ukraine’s cyber defences since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. It contains insights from industry experts, government representatives, and researchers on cybersecurity who participated in a closed-door roundtable discussion conducted as part of the GLOBSEC future of cyberspace cooperation initiative: transatlantic chapter. 

Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung

Ukrainian prism: foreign policy

This extensive report constitutes a systematic and comprehensive analysis of Ukranian foreign policy in 2022 carried out by the Representation of the Friedrich-Ebert Stiftung in Kiev. Stating that their work is meant to provide hints as to where and how the work for victory over Russia can be strengthened, the authors assess Ukraine’s foreign policy accomplishments and failures.

RAND corporation

Reconstructing Ukraine : creating a freer, more prosperous, and secure future

The authors of this report examine previous post-war and post–natural disaster reform and reconstruction efforts to draw lessons and inform policymakers. They also discuss security arrangements, which will be essential for the success of reconstruction. 

Ústav mezinárodních vztahů / Institut pro evropskou politiku EUROPEUM

Gendering Europe’s security and recovery responses to Ukraine

Responses to Russia’s war on Ukraine have been profoundly gendered, effectively side-lining the Women, Peace and Security agenda and other gender norms. This policy paper argues that side-lining gender as a ‘soft’ issue for later cannot be justified because gender dynamics are at the centre of soft and hard security right now. It shows that it is now urgent to centre the gender dimension and Ukrainian women’s voices at all levels of Europe’s engagement with Ukraine.

Finnish Institute of International Affairs

Pursuing justice for international crimes in Ukraine: a patchwork of multi-level and long-running efforts

This paper discusses accountability options featuring in the international debate on how to deal with international crimes – particularly war crimes and the crime of aggression – committed by Russians in and against Ukraine. The exploration mainly concerns institutional efforts to ensure individual criminal responsibility under international law, which means that the focus will be on national prosecutions, the International Criminal Court, and a potential ad hoc tribunal.

The German Marshal Fund

Ukraine's anti-corruption front

The paper discusses Ukraine's ongoing battle against oligarchy and corruption, highlighting the progress made in the past decade, and emphasizing the need for domestic and foreign support to combat corruption, safeguard aid, and inspire global freedom. It provides recommendations for key stakeholders, including Ukraine, the EU, the US Congress, and G7 donors, to support Ukrainian anti-corruption efforts. 

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies

Public expenditure and tax policy for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine

In this report the role of foreign aid in the post-war recovery is highlighted and efficient mechanisms for coordination and reconciliation of Ukrainian public expenditure with external donor funding are suggested. Moreover, the authors propose tax reform measures with a focus on personal income taxation, social security contributions and improving tax collections that are targeted at financing Ukraine’s reconstruction needs. 

Centre for Eastern Studies

Ukrainian oligarchs and their businesses: their fading importance

The article looks at the decline of the oligarchs in Ukraine. It examines the impact of the war and the economic crisis on their businesses as well as the prospect for oligarchic system in the country.

VOX Ukraine

Supporting Ukraine with sanctions has been much less costly than many predicted: we should do more of it

The article argues that the negative impact of sanctions on Western economies has been overestimated and suggests further restrictive measures should be imposed against Russia. 

Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies

From bad to worse: the continuing effects of sanctions on Russia

The economic situation in Russia significantly worsened in the early months of 2023 due to Western sanctions. This paper examines the impacts of Western sanctions on the Russian economy. 

Centre for European Reform

Why Russia must pay for the damage it has done to Ukraine – and how to ensure it does

This paper analyses how Western governments have already invested billions of dollars, euros and pounds into military, humanitarian, and financial assistance for Ukraine. It takes the view that before Western governments ask their own taxpayers to stump up again, they should put the responsibility where it belongs: on the Russian state.

The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

European tank storage and changing geopolitical landscapes

This report assesses the impact of the war in Ukraine on European energy security and decarbonization, with a specific focus on the tank storage sector. It looks at the impacts of the war on market volatility and supply security in the short term; and it provides an overview of the challenges and opportunities arising from the transition on a longer term.

Friends of Europe

After the war: how to keep Europe safe

The study examines how much advanced defence NATO needs for credible deterrence and assurance on its eastern flank, and considers how to bolster Europe’s resilience through a whole-of-society defence effort. It also outlines recommendations for the EU, NATO and the transatlantic community on what is required for the future defence of Europe in light of Russia’s war in Ukraine. 

European Centre for Development Policy Management

Mobilising investments for Ukraine reconstruction: strengthening the Team Europe approach

The EU, its member states and financial institutions for development have been at the forefront of the international community efforts in supporting Ukraine’s defence against the Russian aggression, providing humanitarian aid and supporting Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction efforts. This paper looks at the different ways of mobilising investments for Ukraine and argues for stronger Team Europe efforts in Ukraine aligned with the EU interests, from geostrategic, security, political and economic perspectives. 

Istituto Affari Internazionali

The EU and the transformed nuclear context since the war in Ukraine

The author claims that the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces in February 2022 has entirely transformed the European security landscape, bringing war to the EU’s doorstep. Importantly, the war features a nuclear dimension that manifests itself in consequential ways, including Moscow’s nuclear sabre rattling and its denunciation of the last surviving nuclear arms control treaty. This has unleashed intriguing reactions, like a surprisingly tough resort to sanctions by the EU, or the shrinking of neutrality on the continent.

Istituto Affari Internazionali

How the Russia–Ukraine war could end, and its impact on conventional arms control

The paper is a brief overview of consequences for the EU, and for the role it can play in the resulting security situation.

Center for Strategic & International Studies

Africa’s peace delegation: a new chapter for Africa and the Ukraine war

The article comments on the delegation of African leaders and officials from six countries which arrived in Kyiv to begin separate peace talks on the war in Ukraine with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian president Vladimir Putin. While African countries' nonalignment offers potential as peace brokers, limited leverage hinders progress. The author suggests that achieving a peaceful resolution seems unlikely due to conflicting objectives. Nonetheless, the visit presented an opportunity to tackle Africa's food security concerns through compromises. 

Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung

Wstęp Spojrzenie na Wschód z Warszawy i Berlina

This paper deals with the impact of the war in Ukraine on German-Polish relations. Its aim is to better understand the viewpoints and experiences of both sides, and to draw lessons from the past so that a newly formulated European Eastern policy can benefit from diverse approaches and respect divergent perspectives. 

Institut Montaigne

Bélarus: un État vassalisé par Moscou, acteur ambigu de la guerre en Ukraine

The author reflects on the role of Belarus as an actor in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. If President Lukashenko is part of the most pro-Russian movement on the Belarusian political spectrum, society as a whole is very opposed to going to war against Ukraine. Also, he claims that Belarusians believe that only the country's neutrality can guarantee its survival and autonomy. Under the double influence of the reluctance of public opinion and the dilapidation of its army (only 10,000 of the 50,000 members of the army are fit to fight), Belarus has not formally entered the war against Ukraine.

Standupfor Ukraine.

14.6.2023

Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy

Lessons learned from a year of war in Ukraine: a Greek reading

This article debates how the Russo-Ukrainian war is a transformative event for the conduct of warfare worldwide and how it can transform the way nation-states prepare for armed conflict in the decades to come. Specifically, it discusses how these states invest in their defence industrial base and international alliances to guarantee plentiful access to war materiel; and how they train their soldiers for combat and prepare civilians and civilian infrastructure for war.

Centre for European Policy Studies

Tsar Nicholas I’s Crimean war and Putin’s in Ukraine – Plus ça change

As the author points out history never repeats itself exactly, but it offers some comparisons and lessons which are analysed in this brief. Thus, with President Volodymyr Zelensky’s May statement that more time is needed before Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive can begin, everyone is implicitly being invited also to pause and reflect on what might or should become the outcome of the war. Ukraine’s declared political objective is to regain all its occupied territories, including Crimea, but the actual outcome will only be revealed first on the field of battle and then in peace negotiation.

The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

Smart tactics or risky behaviour? The lawfulness of encouraging civilians to participate in targeting in an age of digital warfare

As a response to the Russian invasion, Ukrainian civil and military authorities have been ingenious in making use of the smartphone’s potential to be an advanced sensor with military applications. Drawing on earlier work in international law and other relevant studies, this paper discusses the implications of this development in relation to the rules of international humanitarian law.

Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations

Ukraine: perception shapes victory and defeat

In this commentary, the author examines the role of perceptions in shaping conflicts and how it is about managing and influencing “how to think” rather than “what to think”. Perception manipulation is a key area of Russian mis/disinformation and hybrid operations, to shape perceptions of what constitutes victory or defeat, the causes of war, sanctions, and so on. In addition, it aims to cause as many cracks as possible in European societies, exploiting the openness of democracies.

Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

Arms deliveries to Ukraine: crossing the red lines

The article looks at the scale of the military support that the West has been providing to Ukraine arguing that the Ukrainian victory is predicated not just on maintaining this aid, but on significantly increasing it.

Chatham House

Ukraine’s recovery depends on security guarantees

This brief elaborates on the Ukraine recovery Conference on June 21 and 22, which is  expected to take a shorter-term approach than last year’s conference, focusing on mobilizing support for public and private investment in reconstruction.

Barcelona Centre for International Affairs

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the day after the war: a view from southern Europe

The authors provide a Southern European reflection on the war, and its security, economic and social impacts, to complement and add value to the discussions about the responses to the war and, particularly, its aftermath.

Center for Strategic & International Studies

Demining Ukraine: an urgent but under-resourced priority

The author highlights the problems of the indiscriminate bombings, fierce firefights, and traps planted by retreating Russian soldiers who leave behind untold numbers of anti-personnel/vehicle mines, and unexploded items. He further suggests an action plan for a safe Ukrainian recovery.

Centre for European Reform

Ukraine’s progress towards NATO membership: going from Bucharest to Vilnius without moving?

This report analyses the upcoming Vilnius summit where NATO is likely to offer Ukraine a closer relationship than before, but less than full membership. The author considers that would be a mistake and that bringing Ukraine into NATO as soon as possible would be a better way of stablising the region.

Atlantic Council

Russian war report: satellite imagery analysis captures flood threat after dam’s destruction

The Atlantic Council’s digital forensic research lab is keeping a close eye on Russia’s movements across the military, cyber, and information domains. With more than seven years of experience monitoring the situation in Ukraine - as well as Russia’s use of propaganda and disinformation to undermine the US, NATO, and the EU - the Lab’s global team presents the latest installment of the Russian war report.

Carnegie Europe

The resilience and trauma of Ukraine’s civil society

For over a year now, since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian society has yet again been defying geopolitics. Ukraine’s heroic resistance against Russia has dealt a blow to those great-power admirers who expected Ukraine to fall in three days. Nevertheless, the author notes that among other challenges will be a shrinking economy and an impoverished population. In overcoming these challenges, the international community’s support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia and its postwar reconstruction will be vital.

Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)

Choosing Latvia: understanding the decision-making factors of displaced Ukrainians

This policy brief is based on an empirical examination of the early-stage migration of Ukrainian war asylum seekers to Latvia in 2022, following the Russian invasion. It highlights the urgent nature of their displacement and identifies the pivotal role of kinship in Latvia in the decision-making.

Ústav mezinárodních vztahů

Nucené přesuny a deportace ukrajinských dětí: bezpečnostní opatření, nebo válečný zločin?

The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) published the third report of the expert mission to Ukraine within the framework of the Moscow mechanism. The report focuses on forced transfers and deportations of Ukrainian children to territories under Russian control, or directly to Russia. This paper first presents the so-called Moscow mechanism and then offers a summary of the main factual and legal conclusions of the report.

Nederlands Instituut voor Internationale Betrekkingen - Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)

Oekraïense en Russische gemeenschappen in Nederland: onderzoek naar het diasporalandschap, verhoudingen tussen gemeenschappen en het diasporabeleid van Oekraïne en Rusland

This report sheds light on the diaspora landscape of Ukrainians and Russians in the Netherlands, including through in-depth interviews with people with a Ukrainian or Russian background.

Council on Foreign Relations

How bad is Ukraine’s humanitarian crisis a year later?

Since Russia launched a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, more than eight million people have fled the country, triggering Europe’s largest refugee crisis since WW II. Nearby countries have taken in millions of displaced people, while international organizations have sent tens of billions of dollars in aid. But as the conflict continues in its second year with no end in sight, experts worry that host countries are growing fatigued. The article looks at the current state of the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.

Migration Policy Institute

Displaced Ukrainians in European labour markets: leveraging innovations for more inclusive integration

This report explores how displaced Ukrainians are faring in European labour markets, including what is known about their early labour market outcomes and the barriers they face when seeking work. It also examines how governments can work together with civil society and employers to help new arrivals find quality jobs and, in doing so, help European societies benefit from their skills.

Vox Ukraine

The Russian invasion and the risks to global financial stability

The invasion of Ukraine has seriously disrupted the global economy, contributing to the largest inflation surge in 40 years and threatening widespread recession. The brief asks what is next for the global financial system.

Chatham House

Ukrainians demand more inclusion in post-war recovery

Ukraine’s government must provide jobs, eradicate corruption, and devolve power to create a convincing vision of post-war prosperity. As the author points out, the challenge is to simultaneously support Ukraine’s immediate needs to maintain resistance and plan for a post-war recovery. It is encouraging that both processes have begun.

German Council on Foreign Relations

Tech sanctions against Russia: turning the West's assumptions into lessons

The author argues that as Russia is preparing to wage a protracted war, the EU must make unity and coordination on tech among its member states and partners its ongoing priority.

Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

Russia: funding the war eases the consequences of sanctions

The article analyses the current budgetary and economic situation of Russia and the impact of sanctions on various sectors of its industry.

Centre for European Policy Studies

Tackling the constraints on EU Foreign Policy towards Ukraine: from strategic denial to geopolitical awakening

This report explores the evolution of EU policy towards Ukraine, with major turning points occurring in 2004, 2014 and February 2022 when Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine started. The dominant constraining factor in the case of Ukraine was multipolar (or rather bipolar) competition between the EU and Russia over the European political, economic and security order, which has gradually tightened since 2004.

Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations

War for Ukraine and the rediscovery of geopolitics: must the EU draw new battlelines or keep an open door?

This brief examines the implications of the Ukraine war for Europe’s geopolitical position in a changing world order.

Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques

The war in Ukraine and Europe’s geopolitical awakening

The second war in Ukraine showed that war on European territory was once again possible, and that it could be extremely ferocious. This note makes seven observations on the war, including the mediocrity of the Russian forces and the limits of European forces without the support of American forces. It considers that Europe's main defence architecture is the EU itself. This does not mean distancing itself or decoupling from the United States of America, but it does mean that the Union must be a genuine ally and not a “protégé” under curatorship. Finally, the war in Ukraine must lead the European institutions to rethink their relations with China, but also with the "global South".

Bruegel

European public opinion remains supportive of Ukraine

An erosion in public support for Ukraine might have been expected as the cost and economic consequences of the war began to impact EU households through inflation. But the article explains that support for Ukraine has remained strong, suggesting that the public understands fully the wider implications for European security of the outcome of the war. The public sides overwhelmingly with the Ukrainians, who are clearly perceived as the victims of aggression.

Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies

The Ukraine war and its implications for European security

The brief examines the implications of the war for the EU’s (and indeed Europe’s) relations with Russia.

Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations

Uncovering uncomfortable truths: the geopolitics of EU gas imports in the aftermath of the invasion of Ukraine

With the conclusion of the winter season, the EU has successfully avoided the anticipated gas shortages and blackouts. The unprecedented LNG imports and significant decline in Russian gas imports have altered the EU’s gas import profile, and the potential security risks associated with these “new” gas suppliers have received little attention. This paper examines whether this new natural gas import portfolio is truly advantageous and what alternatives the EU has.

Ústav mezinárodních vztahů

Food security in the context of the war in Ukraine

The Russian war in Ukraine has revealed the fragilities of the global food system. For European countries, this is both a domestic and an international issue. At the domestic level, the shortage of grains from the Black Sea region has contributed to inflation. At the international level, it threatens the stability of several countries in the Southern neighbourhood and offers an opportunity for Russia to strengthen its soft power. This paper looks at the impacts on Czechia and Norway and provides recommendations.

Ústav mezinárodních vztahů

Czech and Norwegian perspectives on resilience in a post-invasion-of-Ukraine context

In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the calls for enhancing the resilience of European security systems became even more pronounced. This paper unpacks the concept of resilience by showing how it has been operationalised and put into practice by the two key security institutions in Europe – NATO and the EU – and how it has been understood at the national level in the Czech Republic and Norway.

German Marshal Fund

Toward a Marshall Plan for Ukraine

This paper gives ideas and suggestions on Ukraine’s reconstruction, with an eye toward mid- and long-term planning. It identifies five key enablers of reconstruction: private investment, energy transition, Russian assets, transparency and accountability, and donor coordination.

German Marshal Fund

Ukraine needs a “Green Marshall Plan” that empowers cities and civil society

Focused on the enormous task of building back sustainably from the war, the author highlights key aspects of a “green” Marshall Plan for Ukraine that provides financial and technical as well as policy assistance.

Istituto Affari Internazionali

Unpacking the Vatican’s diplomatic failure in reaching a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war

Ever since the start of the Russian invasion, Pope Francis has ardently sought to mediate between the two states, directing his attention primarily towards pressing humanitarian issues, including the facilitation of prisoner exchanges. This article looks at the reasons why the Vatican’s diplomacy to achieve a ceasefire has failed from the very outset and is unlikely to succeed in the future, except in matters pertaining to humanitarian issues related to the war.

School of European Political Economy

Ukraine’s accession to the EU requires a change in Europe itself

This brief analyzes European Commission’s aim to launch Ukraine's accession process to the EU by the end of 2023. This initiative will open a wave of enlargement to other candidate Eastern European countries. The process has huge political, financial, and institutional implications that no one can predict today, and that tomorrow could put pressure on the Union's integrity itself.

Vox Ukraine

How Ukraine can finish the unfinished transition agenda

The author argues that Ukraine's EU accession would trigger a new wave of democratic transition and consolidation not only in Ukraine, but across the region.

The Polish Institute of International Affairs

Point of no return? The transformation of the global order after the Russian invasion of Ukraine

The report answers questions about the scope, nature, and significance of the changes in the international system, which were induced by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It explains how the war has brought fundamental changes to NATO and the EU, set out new perspectives on Russia and Ukraine, transformed thinking about Europe’s future security architecture and energy policy and impacted the policies of China and of the Global South.

Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos

De nuevo guerra en Europa

The article analyses the potential war outcomes and the current impasse between Washington and Moscow, while the US's strategic priority is in the Indo-Pacific. It argues that Ukraine may win the war, but it will probably lose the peace.

Vox Ukraine

Why Ukraine's triumph is important for Latin America

The article looks at the economic implications of the Ukraine war for Latin America, including commodity prices, trade flows and the impact on the multilateral trade system.

Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung

Беларусcко-­Украинский Экспертный Диалог: Будущее Двусторонних Отношений (Belarusian-Ukrainian expert dialogue: the future of bilateral relations)

The author states that Belarus’ complicity in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not only affected political relations between official Minsk and Kyiv, but also increased conflicts on the level of people and communities.

The Polish Institute of International Affairs

U.S. defence sector faces challenges related to support for Ukraine

This strategic file summarizes military support provided to Ukraine by the US so far, its impact on US own potential, possible consequences for the allies and related challenges such as the necessity to replenish own stocks and to raise production.

United States Institute of Peace

Dislodging Putin’s foothold in the Balkans

This article dives into how, as European partners focus on the war in Ukraine, Russia is taking the opportunity to nibble away at NATO’s borders and to sow discord in countries hoping to some day present a strong case for joining the EU. 

Flag of Ukraine.

15.5.2023

The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

Pathways to disaster: Russia’s war against Ukraine and the risks of inadvertent nuclear escalation

The risk of inadvertent nuclear escalation due to actions in the conventional domain is a serious, and underrated, feature of the current stand-off between NATO and Russia, following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The authors suggest a series of measures to avoid inadvertent escalation while stressing that caution should be taken with NATO’s nuclear and conventional posture, including the placement of conventional missiles within range of threatening Russia’s nuclear capabilities.

Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques

Guerre en Ukraine: bilans et perspectives

After more than a year of fighting in Ukraine and political negotiations to build alliances or partnerships around each of the two belligerents, the author explains that it remains difficult to pass judgment on daily events. However, he suggests that the dynamics of the architecture of the world to come are already fairly clearly drawn.

Vox Ukraine

Helping Ukraine is not only crucial for peace in Europe, but also for world peace

The author explains why helping Ukraine win against Russia is as existential for Europe and the world as it is for Ukrainians, who are fighting for their own survival and freedom.

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik

Cyber operations in Russia's war against Ukraine: uses, limitations and lessons learned so far

One year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, assumptions about the utility of cyber operations during wartime are analysed critically in this piece.

CEDOS

Nine months of full scale war in Ukraine: thoughts, feelings, actions

The team of researchers presents an exploratory study on the experience of living in Ukraine during the war.

Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

Wygrać wojnę z Rosją. O kontrstrategii Zachodu wobec Moskwy (To win the war with Russia: about the West’s counterstrategy)

The article proposes a range of political, economic and security actions which the Western countries should undertake or continue in the framework of their counterstrategy towards Russia.

GLOBSEC Policy Institute

Walking on fire: demining in Ukraine

About 30% of Ukraine’s territory (174 000 sq.km) has been exposed to intense combat operations. This area requires survey and clearance from the vast amounts of explosive ordnance left by the invaders. Ukraine is consequently the largest mined territory in the world surpassing such former frontrunners as Afghanistan and Syria. The report provides an overview of the current situation and presents policy and action recommendations.

The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

Good fear, bad fear: how European defence investments could be leveraged to restart arms control negotiations with Russia

What is the potential for European investments in advanced conventional weapons that could incentivise Russia back to the negotiating table? This brief explores the potential of competitive approaches to arms control.

Council on Foreign Relations

Ukraine’s counteroffensive: will it retake Crimea?

Ukraine remains intent on wresting Crimea back from Russia, but doing so would be difficult, and the peninsula could become a bargaining chip in future diplomatic talks. The brief looks at questions such as whether retaking Crimea is a plausible military goal for Ukraine’s armed forces.

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Will Russia control the skies over Ukraine?

The authors analyse the leaked documents from the US Department of Defense that indicate that Ukraine's air defence is critically low on missiles. While immediate Russian air dominance is unlikely, Ukraine's cities and infrastructure remain vulnerable.

United States Institute of Peace

Amid war, Ukraine aims to protect the rights of a brutal foe

This publication comments UN human rights reports and news accounts that illuminate a deepening contrast between the two nations’ adherence to humanitarian conduct amid war, notably in their treatment of prisoners.

Centre for European Policy Studies-Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies

Ukraine’s alarming demographics

The report deals with the losses of human capital through emigration on top of war casualties in Ukraine. According to new data, around 30 to 40 % of children and of prime age women having left the country. Over four million of them have been welcomed by the EU through the activation of the temporary protection directive. The report notes that post-war refugee return will be an obvious priority but notes that how this should be managed and dove-tailed with the end to temporary protection is highly uncertain.

GLOBSEC Policy Institute

Consequences of the Russian war in Ukraine: what policies for temporary displaced Ukrainian women in Austria, Czechia, Hungary, and Slovakia?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced more than 12 million people to flee their homes, with Ukrainians applying for a temporary protection in the EU primarily consisting of women, children, and the elderly. This report seeks to map out policies targeted towards assisting Ukrainian women refugees and explore the different actors and processes involved in organizing and coordinating such programs.

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik

Rebuilding Ukraine: what the international community now needs to consider

The authors provide an overview of likely reconstruction and recovery needs for post-war Ukraine. They argue that the recovery process will only have a chance of achieving lasting success if it is inclusive, flexible and supported jointly by Ukrainians and international partners.

Vox Ukraine

Rebuilding Ukraine’s healthcare sector: proposals for the next 10 years

The authors put forward proposals for rebuilding Ukraine’s healthcare sector, including changes to the financing, delivery and governance arrangements of the existing system.

Vox Ukraine

Ukraine’s agriculture and farmland market: the impact of war 

This article looks into the recent trends in Ukraine’s farmland market and the measures the Ukrainian government took to support the agricultural sector during the war.

Bruegel

Sanctions against Russia will worsen its already poor economic prospects

The brief analyses how sanctions imposed on Russia by the USA, the EU and other countries that are against Russia’s war on Ukraine have started damaging its economy and will erode it further in the long term. It notes that although Russia is the world’s ninth-largest economy and a critical supplier of energy and other raw materials, over the medium-term, it will continue to suffer from weak potential growth.

Peterson Institute for International Economics

Economic sanctions against Russia: how effective? How durable?

The policy brief analyses the functioning of sanctions imposed by Western democracies against Russia, the extent of their circumvention and the role of G7 countries in ensuring the effectiveness and durability of the policy.

Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung

Dynamics and structure of Georgia’s trade with the Russian Federation – before and after the full-scale Russian invasion in Ukraine

As opposed to other states, Georgia chose not to introduce individual sanctions against the Russian Federation for economic reasons. This current study draws on the available statistical data to reveal whether Georgia’s trade with Russian Federation is indeed being utilized as a channel to avoid the international sanctions.

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Insurance as a critical enabler for investing in Ukraine

This analysis emphasizes the need for substantial investment in Ukraine to rebuild its economy following Russia's devastating invasion. The author asserts that private sector participation is crucial but hindered by uncertainty and risk. Policy reforms, public-private partnerships, and early risk assumption by donors can attract private investments.

Vox Ukraine

Towards an acceptable accounting of Ukraine's post-war environmental damages

The Russian war has caused enormous environmental damage to Ukraine. How to estimate this damage in order to calculate the cost of recovery and reparations for the victims? This article discusses methods for damage estimation routinely used by western nations.

Centre for Eastern Studies

The EU increases its agri-food imports from Ukraine: causes and reactions from Central European states

The article presents the characteristics of Ukraine’s agri-food exports, the consequences of their increase for Central European states as well as the measures to counteract its negative effects.

European Council on Foreign Relations

Keeping the lights on: the EU’s energy relationships since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

This policy brief aims to identify which of the EU’s energy partners are not only ‘friends in need’ but also which are, or could become, ‘friends indeed’ – countries that are pressing forward with the green transformation by shifting away from the extraction, use, and sale of fossil fuels. The paper finds that Norway and the US are leading in acting as both principal friends in need and friends indeed, being able both to increase fossil fuel supplies in the short term but having already taken steps to develop domestic clean energy, some of which may be exportable. 

Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

Dostawy broni – konieczność dla Ukrainy, wyzwanie dla Zachodu (Arms supply: a necessity for Ukraine, a challenge for the West)

The article argues that the condition for a Ukrainian victory is not so much to maintain, but to significantly increase military support. In an annex, it offers a detailed overview of military equipment supplies by countries and by categories.

European Council on Foreign Relations

Culture clash: Russia, Ukraine, and the fight for the European public

The paper starts with an assessment of the state of European sentiment over a year since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It then examines the difficulties the EU and its member states have experienced in responding to three key dilemmas: how to handle Russian disinformation, Russian culture, and Russian people. It ends with recommendations on how European countries can address these challenges without compromising their values. 

Notre Europe - Institut Jacques Delors

Les « valeurs européennes » à l’épreuve de la guerre en Ukraine

Although a majority of Europeans agree that through its action in the face of the war in Ukraine, the EU is defending "European values", this paper notes that confusion persists about what this term "values" actually means and recommends that it should be clarified. This requirement of “political homogeneity” is an essential condition for guaranteeing the Union a lasting capacity to face external geopolitical challenges.

Brussels School of Governance

In every crisis an opportunity? European Union integration in defence and the war on Ukraine

This article analyses the state of EU integration in defence since the war on Ukraine. In particular, the article probes how supranational and intergovernmental institutions have reacted to the war and how domestic preferences have fed into recent EU defence efforts. In doing so, the article provides a preliminary assessment of the state of EU integration in defence since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Vrije Universiteit Brussel - Institute for European Studies

Order: the financing of alliances and Western power

Russia’s war on Ukraine and the rise of China are raising serious questions about order in international politics. If the West is to have a fighting chance at maintaining its military supremacy and upholding global order, it needs to answer some fundamental questions about the US-led alliance system and what is expected of allies. This brief looks at burden-sharing in NATO and the relations between the US and its European counterparts.

The Polish Institute of International Affairs

Bez powrotu? Transformacja ładu międzynarodowego po inwazji Rosji na Ukrainę

(No return? Transformation of the international order after Russia's invasion of Ukraine)

The report looks at the scope of the global impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It explains how the war changed NATO and the EU, transformed thinking about the security architecture and the EU energy sector, confirmed Russia's turn away from the West and sealed the changes in China’s and the Global South’s policy.

Fundación de Estudios de Economía Aplicada

La economía española en el primer año de la guerra de Ucrania

This analysis examines the factors contributing to economic stabilization in Spain after the war and the Covid-19 crisis. It considers changes in relative prices, monetary and fiscal stimuli, disruptions in global production, and the impact of the war in Ukraine on commodity costs.

Bruegel

What really influences United Nations voting on Ukraine?

In March 2023, one year on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the UN General Assembly approved a nonbinding resolution calling for Russia to end hostilities and withdraw its forces. Among its 193 members, 141 voted for the resolution, exceeding the two-thirds threshold needed for it to pass. The brief comments on the remaining 45 which either abstained (32 members, including China, India, Iran and South Africa), or were absent (13). It explains that despite the overwhelming vote in favour, those 52 votes have attracted considerable attention, as 45 out of 52 are among the world’s poorest and least industrialised countries, labelled as the ‘Global South’.

Finnish Institute of International Affairs

Russian blackmail and the Black Sea grain initiative: the (limited) impact of the war in Ukraine on global food security

Ukraine and Russia are both major exporters of foodstuffs and fertilizers. Consequently, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to fears of an impending food crisis, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. This paper looks back at the spring of 2022 and the reasons why a food crisis seemed imminent. It then examines the mitigating measures taken in the form of EU solidarity lanes and the Black Sea grain initiative. Finally, it also assesses all of this in the light of export and price trends.

Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies (FREE Network)

Russia’s data warfare

After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a broad spectrum of previously publicly available statistics on economic indicators has been removed from the public eye. This reduced transparency affects any analysis of the state of the Russian economy and assessments of the effects of sanctions and is part of a larger disinformation campaign integral to Russia’s war on Ukraine. This brief provides a short overview of the main indicators on economic activity that have been masked in various forms by Russia’s data producing institutions.

Nederlands Instituut voor Internationale Betrekkingen - Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)

East of Eden: will Tehran find salvation in ‘looking eastwards’?

The authors examine Iran’s foreign relations, in the context of the Ukraine war, with regard to the transitional state the country has entered into since the eruption of the 2022/2023 protests.

Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos

La guerra en Ucrania y la crisis alimentaria: su impacto en el Sahel

This analysis highlights a direct link between the Ukrainian conflict and the ongoing food crisis in the Sahel region. The Sahel's dependence on agricultural exports from Ukraine and Russia connects the two seemingly distant events.

Barcelona Centre for International Affairs

Global South does not buy western stance on Ukraine

The brief suggests that the conflict in Ukraine, viewed from the United States and Europe, requires a unique response but the global South does not fully back Western reactions to the invasion and questions the credibility of the rules-based international order.

European Council on Foreign Relations

Steppe change: how Russia’s war on Ukraine is reshaping Kazakhstan

This analysis notes that Kazakhstan has consistently distanced itself from Russia’s aggression and diversified its relationships with various countries, while preserving its bilateral relationship with Moscow. Having shown interest in engaging more with Kazakhstan, the EU could help the country to overcome this critical juncture by encouraging and supporting its genuine domestic transformation.

Centre for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) - Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung

Russians in the south Caucasus: political attitudes and the war in Ukraine

This report focuses on the situation of Russians in Armenia and Georgia. Both countries were particularly attractive to those living in the Western part of Russia, as they are geographically proximate and can be entered without a visa. Armenia does not even require an international passport for entry, and regular flights from Russia make the country accessible. Georgia shares a land border with Russia, allowing migrants to bring their vehicles and at least some of their belongings with them. Moreover, Russians can stay in both countries de facto indefinitely.

Ukraine statue.

 

18.4.2023

Fondation Robert Schuman

Judging Putin

The article focuses on the international arrest warrant against Vladimir Putin issued by the International Criminal Court in March, assessing the chances of its implementation and analyzing the importance of the role of the court itself. 

Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies

The war in Ukraine and the way forward: short, medium and long-term recommendations for the EPP

On 24 February 2022, conventional interstate conflict returned to Europe after Russia launched an unprovoked war against Ukraine. Since the chances for a sustainable peace deal are currently rather slim, the EU must prepare for a protracted Russo-Ukrainian war characterized by intermittent periods of escalation and de-escalation. This publication presents a set of short, medium, and long-term options to shape an EU action plan.

Vox Ukraine

Ukraine's reconstruction: questions and common grounds

The article offers an overview about ways forward for Ukraine's reconstruction after the war, taking stock of these proposals and highlighting commonalities and differences across them.

Kiel Institute for the World Economy

To Russia with love? The impact of sanction on regime support

This paper states that on the economic side, the sanctions significantly hurt Russia’s foreign trade. However, as supported by event studies and placebo estimations, regime support significantly increases in response to the sanctions. For the average Russian district, sanction exposure increases the vote share gained by President Putin and his party by 13 percent. 

International Centre for Defence and Security

Ukraine is not powerless in the Middle East

This commentary suggests that since 2014 – and especially since 2022 – Moscow has worked to create a network of friendly regimes to facilitate sanctions evasion and to displace the West from sensitive regions. However, Ukraine’s diplomatic moves in the Middle East have received the support of its closest partners such as Poland and the United States. 

Vox Ukraine

Personal sanctions on Russian oligarchs: purpose and design

What should personal sanctions on Russian oligarchs look like? The authors ask how sanctions could effectively target those responsible for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 

European Institute for Security Studies

Buying weapons together (or not)

The brief explains that after many years of underinvestment in defence, EU member states are rearming, but much criticism has been levelled at the slow pace. Many argue that more European cooperation on defence acquisition and arms procurement would make buying arms faster and cheaper and strengthen the European defence industrial base by consolidating demand.

Foundation for European Progressive Studies

The case of Ukraine’s candidacy to the EU: progressive policy towards the Eastern Neighbourhood as a cornerstone of the EU’s stability and security

The author argues that a stronger progressive mindset and actions will be needed to turn Ukraine’s recovery into an EU membership success story, instead of fuelling frustration on both sides. The study also looks at the socio-political dimension of Ukraine’s post-war recovery process and argues that it is important to strengthen the ‘progressive’ elements of Ukraine’s ‘imperfect’ model of democracy that make it likely to succeed in recovery and accession to the EU.

Istituto Affari Internazionali

The EU after one year of war: widening, deepening, rebalancing

In order to navigate these difficult times, the paper notes that the EU needs to square the circle between widening, deepening and rebalancing, which would enable it to accomplish internal consolidation as well as addressing the geopolitical risks in its neighbourhood. This requires striking a difficult balance between new forms of flexible integration to accommodate ever-growing national differences on the one hand, and the reinforcement of common policies based on shared rules and institutions on the other. 

Atlantic Council

Poland and Ukraine: the emerging alliance that could reshape Europe

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent high-profile visit to Poland underlined the deepening cooperation between these two neighbouring countries and the increasingly prominent role their partnership is playing in European politics.

The Polish Institute of International Affairs

China adapts policy in response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine

The strategic file looks at China’s perception of the Russian aggression and its efforts to adapt its foreign policy by strengthening strategic cooperation with Russia and weakening the international position of the US, the EU and their partners.

Observer Research Foundation

Europe and China: the impact of the Ukraine crisis

French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Beijing for a summit with President Xi Jinping of China between 5-7 April. As the author argues, the visit is a part of a noticeable push by Europe to maintain an even keel in their ties with China, which have been roiled by the events in Ukraine, issues relating to human rights in Xinjiang, and the pulls generated by the US-China tensions.

European Council on Foreign Relations

The art of vassalisation: how Russia’s war on Ukraine has transformed transatlantic relations

This paper looks at why US leadership has returned so forcefully to Europe, whether it will outlast the Ukraine war, and what America’s return to Europe means for the future of the transatlantic alliance and the member states of the EU.

Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations

EU Ukraine strategy should include the Eurasian spine

According to the report, the European Union needs to raise its head above the parapet to scan the geopolitical horizon to deal more effectively with key threats, especially in view of the continued Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Europe needs to engage along the Eurasian spine and rediscover the art of playing the game of global geopolitics on multiple fronts in an era in which geopolitical changes will not only be persistent, but likely permanent as well.

Clingendael (Netherlands Institute of International Relations)

De gevolgen van de Russische oorlog in Oekraïne voor de nationale veiligheid van het Koninkrijk der Nederlanden

This analysis provides insights into the Russian aggression against Ukraine, and its threats for the national security of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.

RAND Corporation

Europe: Ukraine's essential ally

While the US is Ukraine's primary military backer, Europe is sharing the war's overall burden. Ukraine's future lies in Europe. This brief comments on how the EU is embracing Ukrainians, notably hosting 8 million refugees and sending generous economic and humanitarian aid. Ukrainian flags fly everywhere in Europe.

Център за изследване на демокрацията  (Center for the Study of Democracy)

The future of the Western Balkans in the shadow of the war in Ukraine

This brief presents a concise picture of the long-term socio-economic and democratic challenges that the Western Balkan countries face in a situation of global power competition, malign influence form authoritarian regimes, corruption and state capture, energy poverty and lack of efficient decarbonization policies and investments, brain-drain and aging populations. It also provides an initial list of measures needed to counter these barriers to the region’s development, which could be implemented with the support of the EU and international community, policy-makers and donors.

Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

Improving global food security: the impact of the Black Sea grain initiative

The article examines the relevance and the perspectives of the Black Sea grain initiative, arguing that its continuation is critical to safeguard the future of global food security. 

The Japan Institute of International Affairs

One year after the invasion: China induces Russia to peace talks

Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022, put China in a difficult position. While China needs to maintain friendly relations with Russia, national sovereignty and territorial integrity have been principles that China has insisted on in the past. The paper explains that the possibility of peace talks coming to an agreement is not entirely excluded, but it is certainly unlikely. Above all, the biggest risk is the unreadability of Putin's moves. There is no guarantee that Putin will follow China's arrangement.  

European Council on Foreign Relations

The Zelensky-Lukashenka-Tsikhanouskaya triangle: understanding Ukraine’s relationship with the Belarusian opposition

The article argues that despite their common goals, the Ukrainian authorities have shown little interest in cooperating with the Belarusian opposition. As an ally to both, the EU can facilitate their understanding and engagement. 

Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations

Strategic priorities for the Russian PMC Wagner: geopolitics, propaganda and mercenary business

The Kremlin has made strategic use of the Wagner group in Ukraine since 2014, mostly in synergy with the Russian Federation Armed Forces, until its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, started pursuing his own stratagems. This aim of this policy brief is to analyse the strategic priorities of the Wagner group and its role in the Russian security ecosystem with a view to enabling governmental and international organisations to develop strategies to effectively counter private military companies (PMCs), such as the Wagner Group.                                                                                                                  

Ukraine heart.

 

29.3.2023

Centre for European Policy Studies

One year of war in Ukraine: understanding what has happened and what needs to happen next

As the conflict has now entered its second year, this explainer analyses what has defined the first year and then expands on what the EU needs to concretely do in the second if Ukraine is to have any hope of triumphing over the invaders. This will require vision, courage and boldness from European leaders. The alternative if they fail? A rules-based international order replaced by a ruthless multipolar world defined by competing spheres of influence.

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Nuclear security during armed conflict: lessons from Ukraine

The Russian military’s invasion of Ukraine and attacks on nuclear installations there in 2022 presented extraordinary nuclear safety, security and safeguards challenges for the facilities’ personnel, for the Ukrainian authorities and for the International Atomic Energy Agency. This brief addresses these questions, highlighting gaps in the current nuclear security regime and recommending how those gaps can be filled. 

Council on Foreign Relations

Ukraine: conflict at the crossroads of Europe and Russia

The article presents background information about the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It covers various question such as what are Russia’s broad interests in Ukraine or what are the US and EU policies in Ukraine. 

Barcelona Centre for International Affairs

Ukraine, the defeat of Putin

The article argues that the best way to contain the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is to support armed resistance against Russian aggression. It asserts that Putin's Russia must face defeat in Ukraine to force a collective examination of conscience. It also warns of the consequences of a Russian victory, including de-Ukrainization and de-Europeanization.

Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

The corporatisation of Ukraine war: a case of unfolding asymmetry in military power

The author argues that the power of crowdsourcing budgetary support, technology, training, and logistic wherewithal has emerged as an important lesson in the Russian war against Ukraine. This corporatisation of war effort has many consequences and will shape the character and future of this war.

Atlantic Council

The 5×5- conflict in Ukraine’s information environment

This article provides insights on the war being waged through the Ukrainian information environment as well as take away lessons for the United States and its allies for the future.

Vox Ukraine

How and to what extent has the emotional state of young people changed after February 24, 2022?

How and to what extend did last year's events in Ukraine affect the psychological state of the Ukrainian youth? The authors analyze the findings of a survey on the mental health of young Ukrainians.

Cedos (NGO Centre for Society Research)

War and education: how a year of the full-scale invasion influenced Ukrainian schools

How did the war affect access to general secondary education in Ukraine, in particular in areas that were in the zone of active combat or under occupation? The report analyses the situation and offers possible solutions to restore access to secondary education.

Euro-Mediterranean Study Commission

The refugee crisis’ double standards: media framing and the proliferation of positive and negative narratives during the Ukrainian and Syrian crises

This paper examines how media framing of the Ukrainian and Syrian refugee crises affected public opinion and policymaking in the EU. Despite the disparity in the number of refugees from Ukraine and Syria, positive-centred media coverage of the Ukrainian crisis mobilised citizen and political action in favour of welcoming Ukrainian refugees, the complete opposite of the negative media framing of Syrian refugees in 2015.

Barcelona Centre for International Affairs

La acogida de refugiados ucranianos: más allá de la emergencia

The author reviews the unprecedented exodus of 4.8 million Ukrainian refugees who have found temporary protection in Europe and find that the response is still stuck in emergency mode. Housing and job market access are crucial, and temporary protection is precarious. Old debates about sharing responsibility between member states have resurfaced.

Vox Ukraine

Who will pay the bills for Russia’s destruction of Ukraine?

The authors discuss possible ways to force Russia to pay for the damage it has caused to Ukraine and its economy.

Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

Kryzys, nie katastrofa. Białoruska gospodarka rok po rosyjskiej agresji na Ukrainę

(A crisis, not a disaster the Belarusian economy one year after the Russia’s aggression on Ukraine)

The article examines the current state of Belarusian economy one year after the outbreak of the war, arguing that the economic stability of the country is closely related to the macroeconomic situation of Russia.

Barcelona Centre for International Affairs

El impacto de la guerra y los dilemas económicos que se avecinan

This paper explores how war caused a major economic slowdown and rapid inflation increase, with ongoing impacts such as sanctions and changes to trade and investment flows. It also dives into how the war creates difficult economic policy decisions in a constrained budget environment.

Külügyi és Külgazdasági Intézet (Institute for Foreign Affairs and Trade)

Participating in sanctions regimes: a comparison of Japan’s and South Korea’s response to the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

This paper aims to answer why Japan and South Korea have adopted a different sanctions policy in response to the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war than they did in the aftermath of the 2014 annexation of Crimea. It concludes that it was primarily the deterioration of the regional environment and the related need to meet the United States’ expectations that has led to a stronger commitment by both countries.

Ústav mezinárodních vztahů

Investing in Ukraine: challenges and prospects for European Union and Czech investors

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine makes investors take risks and worry about their future business. European investors in Ukraine face tremendous challenges. The author focuses on the future of EU and Czech investments in Ukraine.

Ústav mezinárodních vztahů

Od prázdných deklarací k činům: změna vnímání evropské závislosti na ruských dodávkách plynu po invazi na Ukrajinu

This article aims to answer the questions on how the Russian invasion of Ukraine changed the European views on the dependence on the Russian energy sources and how these changes affected the Czech Republic. 

Ústav mezinárodních vztahů

Marshallův plán pro Ukrajinu?: nejen obrovská příležistost, ale také vážná rizika

Post-war recovery of Ukraine will be the biggest reconstruction effort in Europe after the Second World War. The cost is currently estimated at about 350 billion euros. This report presents not only the opportunities but also the risks connected with the post-war recovery of Ukraine.

Taenketanken Europa

Ruslands invasion af Ukraine risikerer at synke Kommissionens grønne fødevareflagskib

The authors argue that the European Commission’s vision for a sustainable food sector is being attacked from all sides following the war in Ukraine and divisions could potentially capsize the entire strategy.

Brussels School of Governance

Shockwaves: how does the war in Ukraine impact the EU’s grand strategy?

This paper illustrates the implications of the conflict for EU grand strategy in terms of shifting priorities, new challenges, emerging debates and critical questions that need addressing. It argues that the EU institutions and member states need to match their grand strategy to the scale of the challenges they face, or risk losing agency on the global stage.

Ústav mezinárodních vztahů

The cybersecurity implications of Russia’s war on Ukraine

This article analyses the dependence on transnational tech companies and vulnerability to cyberattacks. Private companies such as Microsoft and Google have been pivotal in securing technology and fending off attacks. That is why Czech and EU policies need to reconsider the relationship between government and private companies.

Notre Europe - Institut Jacques Delors

L’Europe garde les faveurs de l’opinion face à la guerre en Ukraine

This paper concludes that there is still broad support for the action of the EU, already noticeable a year ago. This is based on analysis of the outcome of several recent surveys, including the Commission's standard Eurobarometer carried out on the ground in January-February 2023.  

Center for Strategic & International Affairs

The ICC wants Putin: now what?

The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Putin and Russian Commissioner for children’s rights, Maria Lvova-Belova, for war crimes related to the transfer of Ukrainian children from Russian-occupied parts of eastern Ukraine into Russian territory. This article offers an insight into how the arrest warrant came about, how the case is likely to proceed, and what this means for efforts to hold Russian leaders accountable for their actions in Ukraine. 

United States Institute of Peace

How the ICC’s warrant for Putin could impact the Ukraine war

This article analyses the impact of the ICC arrest warrants for Putin and Lvova-Belova on the war in Ukraine, emphasizing the need for continued pursuit of accountability and concluding that even though, domestically, it’s unlikely these actions will have any impact in Russian political sphere, they provide further legitimacy for Ukraine. 

The Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey

Has there been a rapprochement between Turkey and the west after the invasion of Ukraine?

According to the author, most probably the world will face an unstable stalemate in this case. Russia seems to have maximalist demands like the recognition of all the annexed territories, while Ukraine, backed by the West, wants to take back most of its occupied land.

Peace Research Institute Oslo

China adjusts limits on partnership with Russia

This article analyses the relations between Moscow and Beijing and looks at the Chinese peace plan for Ukraine. 

Friedrich Ebert Stiftung

Belarus change tracker

This report states that Belarus is going through the most turbulent period since its independence because of the war in Ukraine and the Belarusian authorities’ complicity in Russia’s aggression, combined with the country’s still unresolved internal political crisis of 2020. The report analyses the current economic, political, and foreign affairs situation and trends, and outlines the current public opinion of Belarusians.

Ústav mezinárodních vztahů

Russia’s war on Ukraine and China’s next move

This article analyses the dual role of Beijing, which on the one hand maintains economic and diplomatic relations with the EU and the USA, and on the other hand also cooperates with the Russian Federation.

Ústav mezinárodních vztahů

Russia’s war on Ukraine and the food security in the Middle East and North Africa

The brief comments on how the Russian war on Ukraine threatens global food security, especially in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Soon, agricultural and environmental issues will have a more important place in the MENA politics. As such, they should be addressed by EU member states as they may impact on their external trade, their humanitarian policy and possibly their security policy.

Euro-Mediterranean Study Commission

Walking the tightrope: the Ukrainian crisis through the eyes of Africa

This policy brief analyses the effects of Russian economic and political influence in Africa and its response to the Ukrainian crisis, with a particular focus on North Africa. It highlights the economic and political connections that have shaped Africa’s perspective on the Ukrainian crisis.

Ústav mezinárodních vztahů

Dopady ruské agrese na Ukrajině na blízkovýchodní bezpečnost: kdo jsou (prozatimní) vítězové a poražení?

What impact does the Russian war on Ukraine have on dynamics in Middle East? The author of this study focuses on the effects of the Russian campaign in the region.

Ústav mezinárodních vztahů

Česko-africké vztahy po ruské invazi na Ukrajinu: hledání cesty ze vzájemného odcizení

Russia's invasion of Ukraine revived Cold War-era patterns of geopolitical thinking in the world. They manifested themselves most strongly in the countries of the European Union that were part of the Soviet bloc, including the Czech Republic. This article analysis the Czech-African relations after the Russian war on Ukraine. 

European Council on Foreign Relations

Fragile unity: why Europeans are coming together on Ukraine (and what might drive them apart)

This paper documents Europe’s remarkable coming together, explores three major drivers of this unity, and explains how European leaders can position themselves for the challenges ahead.

Barcelona Centre for International Affairs

The dilemma that follows the war

The article discusses two diverging visions in the EU about the strategy for Ukraine: those who prioritize an outright Ukrainian victory and those who consider the Russia factor in Europe's security architecture. It emphasizes the need for the EU to focus on defense spending and international coalition-building for global and European security frameworks. 

Friends of Europe

Where to now? Ukraine's war is eclipsing the EU's internal woes

The author looks behind the EU’s admirable solidarity over Ukraine to the deep-seated problems that Europe has yet to resolve. ‘Polycrisis’ and ‘permacrisis’ are neologisms that well describe the challenges assailing Europe.

European Policy Centre

Ukraine’s accession talks need bold action in Kyiv and Brussels

In June 2022, Ukraine became an EU candidate country, bringing Kyiv a step closer to opening accession negotiations. However, as the brief notes, what happens next depends on Ukraine meeting the remaining criteria. The future of European security depends on integrating the Eastern neighbourhood along with the Western Balkans. Thus, a credible and revitalised enlargement process is a geopolitical imperative.

Ústav mezinárodních vztahů

Riziko triumfalismu: ruská agrese a znovuvzkříšení střední Evropy

How did the relations in Europe change since the beginning of the war in Ukraine? This article focuses on the impact of countries’ varying positions towards Ukraine on the political dynamics in Europe.

Explanation of how the EU is showing solidarity with Ukraine. 

 

14.03.2023

Centre for Eastern studies

New Ukraine: a breakthrough at great cost

The article analyses the process of identity transformation of Ukrainians accelerated by the Russian invasion. Ukrainians’ turn towards their native history, culture and language as well as rejection of the belief in Russia’s supremacy comes, however, at a high price, with economic ruin and war trauma.

Terra nova

La paix, c'est la guerre: faut-il négocier maintenant avec Poutine?

This note examines several arguments and asks if it is not time to put an end to the terrible war that is tearing Ukraine apart by starting negotiations with the Russian President as soon as possible. However, the author considers whether this idea, more and more frequently put forward as the war drags on, would really serve the cause of peace.

Atlantic Council

Premature peace with Putin would be disastrous for international security

The international community has been amazed by the resilience of the Ukrainian people and inspired by their determination to defy the Russian colossus. At the same time, as the invasion enters its second year, the brief notes that calls are now mounting for some kind of compromise with the Kremlin that would end the fighting and effectively freeze the conflict.

Notre Europe - Institut Jacques Delors

Quelles garanties de sécurité européennes possibles pour l’Ukraine ?

The article argues that any settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, whether or not it is negotiated with Russia, would have to include security guarantees for Ukraine, so that the country can no longer find itself in the position of vulnerability as previously on 24 February 2022.

Council on Foreign Relations

Why the war will continue

In the year since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war has evolved in ways few predicted. The article analyses the possible future developments of the war in Ukraine.

GLOBSEC Policy Institute

Hard work for 2023: supporting Ukraine to win the war against Russia

Western partners have shown their determination to upgrade their military assistance to Ukraine and provide the requested heavy armory more ammunition, and technologically advanced air-defense systems like the Patriot. The brief asks if it will be enough to enable Ukraine to enter a decisive breakthrough leading to a victory in the war and what else is needed to keep the momentum and launch a scaled counter-offensive by the Ukrainian armed forces.

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung

Sieg? Patt? Eskalation? Mögliche Entwicklungsszenarien des russischen Angriffskrieges gegen die Ukraine bis zum 24. Februar 2024

Together with researchers from 13 European countries, the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung analyses possible scenarios for the future development of the war.

Razumkov Centre

Why the war in Ukraine goes on, despite expert forecasts

The author analyses the predictions made by Western and Ukrainian experts on the duration of the war, highlighting reasons for incorrect predictions made on both sides.

Council on Foreign Relations

Ukraine needs to pursue victory without sacrificing its democratic future

The article focuses on the importance of finding the right balance between striking out against Russian influence and respecting fundamental freedoms, which will test the Ukrainian government for the duration of the war and likely beyond.

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Envisioning a multilayered security blanket for Ukraine

In the absence of any definitive plan for postwar security guarantees for Ukraine, the author suggests a 3-tiered approach that can provide security for Kyiv and discourage Moscow from future aggression. This plan includes providing full NATO membership, interlocking western commitments, and expediting Ukraine's EU membership.

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Ukrainian innovation in a war of attrition

This brief analyses how the Ukrainian military has outperformed a much larger and initially better-equipped Russian military. It makes three main arguments: the war has become a war of attrition characterized by dug-in forces and high casualties; Ukraine’s innovations are bottom up, with a military environment encouraging junior officers to seek innovation; but innovation will not be sufficient to outweigh the material needs of the Ukrainian military.

The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

First tanks, fighters next?

This snapshot reviews Ukraine’s call for fighter aircraft and the role of air defence systems in the war.

The German Marshall Fund

One year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, three western illusions have collapsed

The article highlights the fall of the western illusions regarding economic and energy independence; certainty of a short war; and the fact that Russia would become an isolated pariah state. It argues that Europe should rethink its geopolitical strategy, increase the ownership of the war and strengthen its territorial defence capabilities, its economic resilience, and avoid exposing grey geographical areas (like Moldova) to the risk of Russian destabilization.

Open Society Foundations

A year in: turning the tide in Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine

This analysis provides recommendations for policymakers to help Ukraine win the war. These include increasing financial support so that Ukraine’s economy can recover, strengthening political support to hold Russia accountable for its crimes, and laying a solid foundation for post-war reconstruction and accession to the EU.

Atlantic Council

Ukraine’s women are playing a key role in the fight against Russia

This article highlights the prominence of the country’s women. From frontline soldiers to unofficial ambassadors, Ukrainian women are playing a key role in the struggle to defeat Vladimir Putin.

Friedrich Ebert Stiftung

Mit offenen Armen - die kooperative Aufnahme von Kriegsflüchtlingen aus der Ukraine in Europa: eine Alternative zum Asylregime?

The paper describes how well Europe cooperated and how many volunteers took in refugees after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Based on the varying levels of success that different countries have in caring for and integrating refugees, the author outlines recommendations.

Institut de relations internationales et stratégiques

Guerre en Ukraine: l’aide aux réfugiés, le bilan un an après

This summary gives an overview of the situation of the refugees from Ukraine in France and in the EU. It also addresses the subject of the reception of refugees in general.

Globsec Policy Institute

Between vague return prospects and limited employment opportunities: the challenges of Ukrainian refugees’ labour market integration

The article focuses on the largest and forced displacement since World War II with millions of Ukrainians fleeing abroad. A large percentage of Ukrainian refugees have higher or vocational education qualifications. In certain EU member states, more than half of Ukrainian refugees are estimated to be employed.  

Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies

Cross-border movements compared: migration from and to Ukraine in historical comparison with other conflict-induced situations

The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 created massive cross-border movements out of Ukraine and back into the country. This brief presents a historical comparison of the Ukraine post-invasion migration with other similar situations in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries.

Vox Ukraine

Where do Ukrainians want to go? Migration aspirations and destination-country preferences in Ukraine

Since the beginning of the full-scale war one year ago, eight million Ukrainians have left the country. This paper analyses their long-term intentions: how many Ukrainians want to leave the country permanently, and what are their preferred destination countries.

Globsec Policy Institute

The revival of bank crediting in the wartime economy of Ukraine

In wartime, Ukraine could retain the banking system’s stability. However, bank loans have stagnated both in corporate and personal segments. This paper suggests measures to redesign the existing subsidized credit programs and rearrange the banking system to unlock the impediments of market-based credit provision. The revival of market-based crediting should restore the mechanisms of monetary policy transmission and enable the National Bank of Ukraine to be more effective in anti-inflationary control.

Globsec Policy Institute

The promotion of business resilience in wartime and post-war recovery

The resilience of businesses facing wartime risks is the cornerstone of the country’s resilience in a protracted full-scale war. Its strength in the medium- and the long run is based on the adaptive capacity of businesses to wartime challenges, combined with their inclusion in economic turnover. The paper examines the path toward resilience by focusing on macro-level policies, enhancing the institutional framework for businesses to network and supporting the internationalization of businesses.

IDOS - German Institute of Development and Sustainability

Wiederaufbau in der Ukraine: Was die internationale Gemeinschaft jetzt beachten muss

The authors shed light on the main priorities for reconstruction efforts in Ukraine, including Ukraine's European perspective and the cooperation of international bodies.

Centre for European Policy Studies

How successful have Western sanctions against Russia actually been?

The sanctions imposed on Russia by the EU and other Western economies primarily targeted its economy to weaken its ability to finance the war. Although the adverse impact of the sanctions on the Russian economy is evident, the damage has not yet been large enough to end the war, claims the report. On the one hand, the lack of cooperation at global level has diluted the impact of sanctions. On the other, Russia has moved to reduce its dependence on the US dollar, hence reducing the sanctions’ overall effectiveness.

Observer Research Foundation

The Ukraine war, sanctions, and the resilient Russian economy

Russia is now the world’s most heavily sanctioned country, according to US officials, with sanctions imposed mostly through executive orders. This article attempts to explain the resilience of the Russian economy in the face of such a comprehensive and unprecedented sanctions regime.

LSE Ideas

The energy crisis requires a military solution that compels NATO to spend like Estonia

The authors focus on the intimate relationship between the Russia-Ukraine war and the energy crisis, both for Ukraine and the rest of Europe. They argue that to solve the energy crisis, NATO and its allies need to “spend like Estonia.” Such an approach could help Ukraine to decisively win the war in 2023, and it would help to avert a potential energy crisis during the next winter.  

Forum for research on Eastern Europe and Emerging Economies

Rebuilding Ukraine: the gender dimension of the reconstruction process

The post-war reconstruction of Ukraine will have to comprehensively address a number of objectives to set the country on a path of stable, sustainable and inclusive growth. This policy paper argues that the principles of “building-back better” need to take the gender dimension into consideration.

The Brookings Institution

Lessons from Ukraine

2023 could be a decisive year for the future of Ukraine, the West, and global order and security - for better, but also for worse. Brookings scholars examine the lessons of the first year of Russia’s war against Ukraine and look ahead to coming challenges.

Instituto Español  de Estudios Estratégicos

El ciberespacio en tiempos de guerra: la IT army ucraniana

For the first time ever, it has been possible to study cyberwarfare as part of a greater conflict. This paper analyses the rapidly created Ukrainian IT army to protect their cyberspace, highlighting, in particular, the necessary level of coordination between professional government personnel, the technology industry and, on occasion, actors that may be considered criminal.

New America

Satellite wars over Ukraine

The article claims that the digital revolution is not only transforming how people think about truth, facts, and evidence, but most importantly it is changing the very essence of power and influence. Most importantly in the near term for Ukraine, tech and open-source intelligence is redefining what people mean when talking about frontlines.

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik

A turning point for EU trade policy after the Russian aggression? Ukraine: the war that changed the world, one year on

The authors look at the vulnerabilities of global supply chains to political shocks and seek to put a new focus on the geopolitical risks through over-dependencies on autocracies.

Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies - Centre for European Policy Studies

The impressive EU-Ukraine summits: alongside the inadequate enlargement methodology

President Zelensky`s tireless and dazzling summit diplomacy with Europe over the last two weeks – in Kyiv, London, Paris and Brussels – was supported by big EU contributions to Ukraine’s war effort in all ways but one, that being a failure to reform the EU’s enlargement methodology, which has been stagnating in the Balkans. This short piece argues that without this reform the EU, alongside Ukraine, may lose the peace.

European Centre for Development Policy Management

One year on: the ripple effects of Russia's war in Ukraine on the EU-Africa peace and security partnership

Six days after the EU-AU summit ended last year, Russia invaded Ukraine. According to the article, the EU is struggling with Africa’s lack of unequivocal support for the West’s efforts, including at the UN, to condemn Russia. For many African countries, this expectation feels misplaced – if not offensive. For them, the EU’s actions following the Russian war in Ukraine show the double standards of Europe when it comes to efforts against military aggression and peace negotiations.

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies

Keeping friends closer: why the EU should address new geoeconomic realities and get its neighbours back in the fold

This study measures the interconnectivity between the EU and its neighbouring countries and compares these interconnections with those of the EU’s peers and rivals: the US, China, and Russia. It also argues that the EU should reinvigorate its partnership with the US (while also growing more prepared to stand alone), strike the right balance with China, and continue to decouple from Russia.

Friedrich Ebert Stiftung

Zeitenwende for Europe: public perceptions before and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

This report outlines the shift in public opinion in wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, specifically in Germany, France, Poland, and Latvia. It concludes that the results of the survey provide a grim picture of heightened concerns and fears, that the war brought threat perceptions among the polled countries closer together, but that there are still notable differences, especially along East-West lines, which may complicate the formulation of a common EU security policy.

Globsec Policy Institute

Rethinking the concept of Central Europe with Ukraine as its member: what kind of "soft" connectivity is needed in a new geopolitical reality?

This brief analyses the concept of Central Europe, a new geopolitical reality and gives some recommendations in that direction if Ukraine survives as an independent state.

Istituto Affari Internazionali

The war against Ukraine and Russia’s position in Europe’s security order

Russia’s aggressions against its neighbours since 2008 – first Georgia, then Ukraine twice – impel the urgent reconstruction of European security. The paper analyses how in Ukraine, Russia has unilaterally, and unprovokedly, violated or broken at least eight major international treaties and accords, ranging from the 1994 Budapest memorandum to the 1968 non-proliferation treaty.

Istituto Affari Internazionali

Italy’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine

In line with the EU’s policy, the brief notes that former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and current Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni have taken a strong stance in response to the Russian aggression against Ukraine by firmly condemning the invasion and offering their full support for Kyiv’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence.

Istituto Affari Internazionali

The war against Ukraine and its lessons for NATO militaries: food for thought

The article conveys the message that the conventional war fought on the European continent between two large countries, including a nuclear power, is obviously a historical watershed for NATO and the whole Euro-Atlantic area, whose strategic implications are yet to be fully assessed.

Observer Research Foundation

How the Ukraine crisis changed Europe

The critical energy and economic infrastructure of the country are devastated. For Europe, Russian actions have strengthened the member states’ unity, revived and expanded NATO, and, more importantly, has led the Union to take some unprecedented decisions. This article highlights five key policy decisions taken by the EU in the past year.

Friedrich Ebert Stiftung

In the middle of Zeitenwende: change and continuity of public attitudes in Germany

This report outlines German public opinion in wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In particular, citizens were questioned regarding topics like their main personal concerns, Germany’s military spending, Ukrainian NATO and EU membership, or Germany’s foreign policy. The authors conclude that the Zeitenwende has undoubtedly started to manifest itself not only in politics but also in the minds of Germans.

Finnish Institute of International Affairs

Russia’s regime transformation and the invasion of Ukraine: from a failed blitzkrieg to war as the new normal

The paper looks at how Putin’s authoritarian regime is transforming into a state where the war in Ukraine and the conflict with the West are becoming the basis of its legitimacy. The official discourse has become radicalized, and tensions are appearing within the regime. The paper argues that both the regime’s consolidation around Putin’s war policy and public opinion are dependent upon Russia’s military successes.

Egmont – Royal Institute for International Relations

Captivated by war: the Russian people in the face of the Ukraine war, mobilization, and tactical defeat

This paper provides an analysis of Russian public opinion in the face of the Ukraine war, considering the preparations for a renewed spring offensive that will determine the outcome of the Ukraine war and the future of Putinism.

Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air

One year on, who is funding Russia’s war in Ukraine?

Russia’s illegal and brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine started a year ago. Russia’s fossil fuel revenues have continued to enable the war even though they have declined. This briefing highlights how Russia’s fossil fuel revenues have decreased, what the impact of the recent sanctions has been on Russia’s revenues, and the leverage and options Ukraine’s allies have to further starve the Kremlin of fossil fuel revenues.

Österreichische Institut für Internationale Politik (Austrian Institute for International Affairs)

Will China save Russia’s military in 2023? Chinese expert debates on China-Russia relations and the long war in Ukraine

The key question is whether China will escalate supplies to meet Russia’s war needs, even as Russia’s war effort stumbles and Western nations step up their support for Kyiv. Will Beijing deliver more and new tech and parts? Will it supply Russia with complete weapons systems and ammunition? This article attempts to provide an initial prognosis. It draws on three key trends in recent debates on Beijing-Moscow ties in China’s foreign policy community. 

German Institute of Development and Sustainability

Wiederaufbau in der Ukraine: was die internationale Gemeinschaft jetzt beachten muss

This brief states that the rebuilding of Ukraine starts now and the EU has to contribute. It further outlines which factors will be most relevant for this effort to succeed, taking into account the instability due to the still ongoing war and the lessons learnt from past rebuilding efforts such as in Iraq.

Carnegie Europe

After Russia's war against Ukraine: what kind of world order?

The article analyses the current trends based on strategic documents. It highlights the urgency of addressing transnational issues such as climate change.

Rand Corporation

Consequences of the war in Ukraine

One year ago, Russian ground forces, following a lengthy military build-up, invaded Ukraine. They came from Belarus in the north, Russian territory in the east, and Russian-occupied Crimea in the south. Today, the war continues, with no clear end in sight. How does this end, asks the author?

Centre for Eastern studies

More independence, less fear: Moldova’s perspective on Russia after a year of war in Ukraine

The article looks at the process of curbing Russian influence in Moldova in the context of Russia’s war which has led to a significant acceleration of dismantling the legal, institutional and economic ties between the two countries.

Euro-Mediterranean Study Commission

Between hedging and bandwagoning – interpreting the reactions of Middle Eastern and North African states to the Russian-Ukrainian war

The Russian aggression against Ukraine has affected the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in a delicate manner from political, economic, and social perspectives. The brief analyses various reactions of MENA states to the Russian-Ukrainian war by the end of 2022. It concludes with recommendations for the EU to better manoeuvre in the MENA region in this era of intensifying great power rivalry.

Center for Strategic and International Studies

A hesitant hemisphere: how Latin America has been shaped by the war in Ukraine

Latin America's principle of non-intervention in the affairs of another country remains potent today, with many abstentions from the UN resolution for the aggression against Ukraine and Ukrainian support rejections, even from all three major non-NATO allies in the region. This article provides an overview of the stance of different Latina America countries towards the Ukraine war and what the war in Ukraine means for them.

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung

Wieviel internationale Solidarität besteht noch ein Jahr nach dem russischen Angriff auf die Ukraine?

This analysis, taking its cue from the recent Ukraine resolution vote at the UN General Assembly, reports on the global perspectives of Russia's invasion of Ukraine one year after the full-scale invasion.

Vox Ukraine

The driving factors behind UN votes on Russia's Ukraine invasion

This research studies the reasons behind certain countries voting in favour of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the UN General Assembly’s first emergency session. It identifies several common factors significantly impacting the probability of voting in favour of Russia.

Rand Corporation

What does Russia's war on Ukraine mean for the international order?

The author claims that the war has shown the danger of Russian revanchism and the risk of living next door to a power that embraces war as a coercive tool. He also highlights the West's role as a major protector of the democratic world and Ukraine's advantages as a result of three decades of democratic development.

The Institute for National Security Studies

One year into the war in Ukraine: Israel's preparedness for the changing aerial threat

According to the article, the war in Ukraine is an opportunity for countries that are liable to face similar scenarios to study and prepare for such eventualities. Substantial challenges require an in-depth understanding of the change and rapid, efficient adaptation of Israeli preparations for any future threat situation.

Observer Research Foundation

Lessons from the Ukraine-Russia conflict

This note analyses two distinct sets of lessons to be drawn from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. One set of lessons pertains to battlefield tactics, while the other is about strategic war lessons.

Peace Research Institute Oslo

Russia-Ukraine war compels Japan to reassess China challenge, shift course on security

The author discusses Russia’s military presence in Asia, which is deeply curtailed as most of its conventional capabilities are redeployed to the Donbas front in Ukraine, the behaviour of maverick North Korea which has become more reckless and China’s policy which has become less predictable and more assertive.

Peace Research Institute Oslo

China’s plan for Ukraine is no plan at all

On February 24, one year after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, China released a paper on “China’s position on the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis” in which exposes 12 points about useful insights into China’s own perception about its role in the international arena as well as its positioning with respect to global dynamics of power. According to this brief, China’s position paper will not contribute to peace in Ukraine, but it does offer useful insights into how Beijing conceives of its global role.

Observer Research Foundation

Ukraine lessons for China

The paper describes how the Ukraine conflict provided the Communist Party of China with a great opportunity to closely examine how modern wars are waged and its implications with regard to Taiwan.

Observer Research Foundation

Ukraine-Russia conflict: impact on South Asia

The article claims the Ukraine crisis has exacerbated the economic turmoil in the South Asian economies. The Ukraine-Russia conflict has thrown the energy markets into a crisis in several Global South nations. In addition, the supply cuts by edible-oil exporting countries, alongside the rise in fuel prices, have led to a surge in food prices, making food security a primary concern, especially for the vulnerable sections of society.

Stand with Ukraine

 

24.2.2023

Globsec Policy Institute

How to beat Russia?

The report looks at the course of the war, identifying initial lessons for armed forces in NATO countries. It provides political recommendations derived from Ukrainian experiences.

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Experts react: factors shaping the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2023

This analysis contains several experts' comments on issues such as the life-or-death question of continued outside aid for Ukraine and the resilience of the Ukrainian people; cohesion in the Russian military and the potential for catastrophic collapse; the looming nuclear question; and how a conflict might end.

Observer Research Foundation

NATO should pursue peace over victory in Ukraine: here is why and how

This brief focuses on how the war can be ended without surrendering to Russia or depriving Ukraine of its right to self-defence. A close look at the military, political, and moral dimensions of the war is needed to understand why it will continue unless the West settles it.  

European Council on Foreign Relations

United West, divided from the rest: global public opinion one year into Russia’s war on Ukraine

This policy brief looks into a new poll which suggests that Russia’s war on Ukraine has consolidated ‘the West’; European and American citizens hold many views in common about major global questions. Europeans and Americans agree they should help Ukraine to win, that Russia is their avowed adversary, and that the coming global order will most likely be defined by two blocs led respectively by the US and China. In contrast, citizens in China, India, and Turkiye prefer a quick end to the war even if Ukraine has to concede territory.

Rand Europe

From gatherer of lands to gravedigger: a political assessment of Putin's war on Ukraine

In invading Ukraine, Putin violated international law and effectively tore up numerous long-standing Russian commitments to maintain Ukrainian and European security. This article assesses how Putin, by using military aggression to forcibly change the borders of sovereign European states, has again violated one of the core rules that has for the most part preserved European peace for over 70 years.

Atlantic Council

Ukrainians are united in rejection of any compromise with the Kremlin

This article refers to a Ukrainian nationwide survey which offers important insights into Ukrainian perceptions of victory. Perhaps the most significant finding is that Ukrainians are not ready to accept a return to the status quo on the eve of the full-scale invasion when Russia already occupied Crimea and parts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in eastern Ukraine. Instead, a commanding majority of Ukrainians are convinced that only the full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity within the country’s internationally recognized borders can bring peace.

Japan Institute of International Affairs

Russia's aggression against Ukraine and international response

The paper analyses how, in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Ukrainian forces, with military support from Western countries, responded by launching a large-scale counteroffensive in the summer. Russia unilaterally declared the annexation of four provinces in eastern and southern Ukraine in September, and since October it has been escalating the war, including carrying out missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, without a clear exit strategy.

Chatham House

One year on, how can the war on Ukraine end?

According to the brief, no sane participant or observer of this war wants it prolonged unnecessarily. But now is not the time to be advocating an urgent ‘solution’.

Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

The reluctant co-aggressor: Minsk’s complicity in the war against Ukraine

The article analyses the role of Belarus in the Russian war against Ukraine, the anti-war attitude of the public and the probability of bigger involvement of Belarus in the aggression. It details the current military strength of Belarus including air and land forces, as well as the Russian military presence in the country.

Institut français des Relations internationales

Liberté, Union européenne, OTAN: la société ukrainienne a fait son choix

Ukrainian resistance is part of a long process, which began with independence in 1991 and was confirmed in 2014. The paper argues that a continuous trend has brought the country's opinion very much closer to the EU and then to NATO, leading it to seek a real separation from Russia and especially from its Soviet historical heritage. Ukraine intends to emerge from the war as a true European democracy.

Chatham House

How Ukraine’s invention and resilience confounds Russia

Years of adversity, public unity and private-sector creativity have made Ukraine a formidable enemy, writes the author. Ukraine remains resolute in resisting Russian aggression because it deployed a ‘total defence’ approach, which combines both military and civilian components. 

Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung

Journalismus in der Ukraine: mehr als ein Informationskrieg

According to the paper, Ukraine's regional and national media is threatened by the brutal Russian invasion and occupation. The war changed the work of journalists. Media business models are under threat.

Chatham House

Ukraine needs women to win the war – and the peace

The brief argues women are vital in the war effort - but better female political representation will also be needed to rebuild Ukraine.

Chatham House

Helping Ukraine’s sex-crime survivors

The growing numbers of Ukrainian women recovering from sexual violence at the hands of Russian forces need support, protection, and legal aid, claims the author.

Migration Policy Institute

Prolonged Ukrainian displacement: an uneasy marriage of reception, integration, and return policies

This commentary explains the Ukrainian displacement crisis sparked by Russia's invasion, and the fact that European policymakers are having to confront the likelihood of a prolonged stay for millions of Ukrainians and the prospect of new displacement.

Institut für Weltwirtschaft Kiel

The Ukraine support tracker: which countries help Ukraine and how?

This paper presents the Ukraine support tracker, which lists and quantifies military, financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine in the context of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)

A year of war in Ukraine’s foreign trade

The article analyses Ukraine’s foreign trade patterns in 2022 by presenting statistics in exports and imports in terms of transport modes, geographical regions, and categories of food.

 Center for Social and Economic Research

Economic priorities in post-war Ukraine

The report focuses on the essential reforms that will help Ukraine with the post-war reconstruction and enable progress in its efforts on the way to EU membership. It addresses many of the complex tasks that Ukraine needs to complete, with the main challenge being the rule of law.

Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW, Köln)

Auswirkungen des Krieges in der Ukraine auf die Weltwirtschaft: IW-Schätzung der Größenordnungen

According to this paper, global economic output in 2022 is likely to have been well over 1,600 billion US dollars lower than it would have been without the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In 2023, global production losses could amount to around another 1,000 billion US dollars, given the current framework conditions.

Chatham House

Ukraine business resilience can inform reconstruction

The brief looks at how Ukrainian companies are showing remarkable resilience by continuously adapting production processes and logistics to meet the dynamic challenges of the war.

Centre d’Etudes et de Recherches internationales

Les sanctions sont efficaces

Russia's GDP fell in 2022, but less than analysts expected. Projections indicate that this decline is expected to continue in 2023 before giving way to a period of stagnation. The author explains this situation and these forecasts.

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik

Russia's war economy: how sanctions reduce military capacity

Sanctions are a strong signal of Western resolve to oppose Russia’s war against Ukraine and have significantly weakened its ability to wage war. But Russia is adapting, turning its economy into a war economy, ramping up military production, and adjusting to sanctions. This brief looks at Russia’s economic adjustment with a focus on the shifting of resources to war purposes and the effect of sanctions on military production.

 Center for Strategic and International Studies

A continent forged in crisis: assessing Europe one year into the war

This report gives us an overview of the situation in Europe after one year of war (past, present and future). It notes inter alia that the coming year - the last before EU parliamentary elections - will be critical to Europe’s future direction. While the outcome of the war remains uncertain, there are many economic and political challenges that will require significant political leadership, vision, and capital.

Egmont Royal Institute for International Relations

From buffer to frontier: Ukraine and the EU

In June 2022, the EU granted candidate status to Ukraine. The paper qualifies it as a strong political statement, which was welcomed as such in Kyiv. But for a country at war, symbols do not suffice. Ukraine was a buffer state; it has become a frontier state. The EU should finally come up with an overall plan to provide military support to Ukraine over the long term, gradually taking over the main effort from the United States.

Centre for European Reform

The impact of the war in Ukraine: annual report 2022

This annual report starts with an essay on how the war in Ukraine is changing Europe, outlining 10 main consequences.

 Real Instituto Elcano (Elcano Royal Institute)

Lecciones de la guerra en Ucrania: piedra, papel o tijera

Building on the assumption that the invasion of Ukraine is the first 'triple' war in European history, the article analyses some key lessons for all the actors involved. It concludes that none of them is likely to achieve a definitive victory in the conflict.

Fondation Robert Schuman

Geopolitical and technocratic: EU international actorness and Russia’s war against Ukraine

La guerre en Ukraine et l’action de l’Union européenne: expertise technique

(devam  edecek )