Bloomberg Balance of Power : The mutiny by Wagner and more ...June 25, 2023

 

)
to me

View in browser

The mutiny by the Wagner mercenary group may have been brief, but it raises fundamental questions about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power. It also has ramifications outside Russia’s borders. So far there’s been no major shift in the fighting in Ukraine. Wagner’s forces, though, have played a key role on the ground, and it’s unclear whether they may now exit Ukraine entirely. That would leave the less well organized and under-resourced Russian military to carry on alone. Key Reading:  China Backs Russian ‘National Stability’ Move as Diplomats Meet Silence Cloaks the Kremlin After Russian Mutiny Against Putin Russia Latest: Blinken Says Wagner Uprising Challenges Putin Aside from Ukraine, this episode could affect China, whose president, Xi Jinping, is a self-described “close friend” of Putin’s. China hasn’t criticized Russia overtly for its war. It continues to trade and invest with it. And ties with Russia suit Xi as he seeks to build an alternate power bloc to the US and Europe. Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko today in Beijing. It was a pre-planned affair, and afterward China’s foreign ministry said it backed Russia’s efforts on stability, calling the mutiny an “internal affair.” Still, Beijing is likely to be concerned about the risk that Putin’s hold on power erodes. A weak Putin is not a good look for Xi, especially if China has to do even more to support Russia economically. Xi may do so, but through increasingly gritted teeth. The US in turn is likely to be anxious about the residual potential for instability inside Russia. President Joe Biden has called Putin a “butcher,” saying he “cannot remain in power.” Yet if Putin were to go, there’s no guarantee that who would follow would be any better. Indeed, with hardliners circling, it could be even worse. Serious internal strife inside Russia would be a major concern for the US. And so the White House will be watching closely for evidence of how much in control Putin truly is.  —Rosalind Mathieson

CLICK TO WATCH: Rosalind Mathieson discusses the fallout from the Wagner Group’s short-lived rebellion. Photographer: Roman Romokhov/AFP/Getty Images Check out the latest Washington Edition newsletter. You can sign up to get it in your inbox every weekday. And if you are enjoying this newsletter, sign up here.

Top Headlines

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Wagner revolt showed “real cracks” in the Russian leader’s authority. Speaking on CBS’s Face the Nation, he said Putin would have “a lot more to answer for in the weeks and months ahead.” Blinken added the US was focused on supporting Ukraine in its efforts to push Russian troops back out. A demolished school building in Donetsk, Ukraine yesterday. Source: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images Russia’s central bank said trading will take place as normal tomorrow on the Moscow Exchange, even after authorities declared Monday a non-working day in the capital. Still, all roadblocks on the routes into Moscow are being removed, and there is a less visible military presence on the streets. A police officer guards Red Square near the Kremlin yesterday. Photographer: Contributor/Getty Images Europe Prigozhin’s whereabouts are unknown and he hasn’t commented since announcing the withdrawal of his forces. Video on social media showed crowds cheering as he was driven from a military installation in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don that Wagner took over early in the mutiny. The Kremlin said Putin guaranteed to let the Wagner leader travel to Belarus and to drop criminal mutiny charges against him and fighters involved in the rebellion.  Prigozhin leaves the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov-on-Don. Source: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images Even as the drama unfolds inside Russia, fighting has continued on the ground in Ukraine, with Russian troops seeking to advance in the east, including around Bakhmut, while resisting Kyiv’s counteroffensive in southern areas, according to the Ukraine military.  A Ukrainian soldier fires toward a Russian position on the frontline in the Zaporizhzhia region on June 24. Photographer: Efrem Lukatsky/AP Photo

Bloomberg Opinion

Wagner Mutiny Leaves Putin a Naked Emperor: Leonid Bershidsky Russia’s Uprising Is a Serious Threat to China: Hal Brands Mutiny at Home Will Weaken Wagner in Middle East: Bobby Ghosh An advertising board of Wagner group in St. Petersburg yesterday Photographer: Olga Maltseva/AFP/Getty Images ​​​​​

Follow Us

You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, sign up here to get it in your inbox. Unsubscribe Bloomberg.com Contact Us Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022