The enemy within
By Jorge Liboreiro
By all accounts, Yevgeny Prigozhin is a man with many lives.
Catering magnate, former convict, disinformation purveyor, mercenary commander, presidential confidant, FBI wanted criminal and bloodthirsty warmonger are some of the titles decorating his decades-long career, most of which he spent moving stealthily behind the scenes.
But after last weekend’s extraordinary events, in which he directed a short-lived mutiny against Russia’s military leadership, Prigozhin can boast a new accomplishment: being the man who has come the closest to challenging Vladimir Putin’s zealously protected grip on power.
That is – in and of itself – a stunning feat with no parallel.
Ever since taking over the Kremlin in May 2000, Putin has deployed all state resources at his disposal with the sole aim of fortifying his iron-fist rule and eradicating any vestige of contestation. Media channels turned into docile mouthpieces, critical-minded oligarchs were ostracised, street protesters were violently repressed, and opposition candidates were imprisoned, banished, and, in some cases, nearly poisoned to death.
Western allies, who once naïvely held onto the idea that post-Soviet Russia would gradually align itself with liberal democracies, eventually gave up hope of seeing political change in the country and designed awkward arrangements to co-exist with Putin’s regime, often based on the convenient sale of cheap fossil fuels.
All of this, of course, went down in flames when the Kremlin launched the invasion of Ukraine.
But neither the arsenal of hard-hitting sanctions, nor the international isolation, nor the economic recession, nor countless military setbacks have been enough to scratch Putin’s totalitarian reign. Remarkably, the real challenger came from his inner circle, from the chef whom the president had transformed into a for-hire warlord.
In his first public message since the fleeting rebellion, Prigozhin described his actions as a protest against the military failures in Ukraine and denied efforts to overthrow the government. “We started our march because of an injustice,” he said, repeating previous claims that the Russian armed forces had fired directly on his Wagner troops.
But in a country where one man exerts quasi-infinite power, bends the constitutional order at his will and commands every corner of the state apparatus, it seems woefully disingenuous to pretend the military leadership has nothing to do and is completely detached from the president himself. If there’s one department in the Russian government that is meticulously micro-managed by the president, that is, in fact, the military. After all, it was Putin alone who gave the order to invade Ukraine and rewrite Europe’s history.
“An armed mutiny would have been suppressed in any event. Mutiny plotters, despite the loss of adequacy, were bound to realise that,” Putin said in a speech earlier this week, calling the rebellion a “reckless” mistake. “Any blackmail, any attempt to stage domestic turmoil is doomed to fail.”
The president tried to re-affirmed his position, saying that “in keeping with my direct instructions” bloodshed had been prevented, and offered Wagner troops the chance of signing a contract with the Defence Ministry or going into exile in Belarus. He later admitted having paid $1 billion to the mercenary organisation in just one year.
At no point did he mention Prigozhin by name.
Subsequent reports suggest the criminal charges against the Wagner chief have been dropped as part of the surprise deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, although it is highly unlikely that Putin, who is known for his vengeful character, will turn the page so easily on the most dramatic episode in his 23-year-long rule.
Some analysts and experts believe Prigozhin is a dead man walking, whose tranquil days in Minsk will be soon cut short under mysterious circumstances. Others, however, are betting on Prigozhin’s survival skills and his deep connections with the Russian elite, which were, ironically, built with Putin’s own blessing. But these useful ties could be torn apart if the president, in his post-coup paranoia, launches the brutal crackdown that many expect him to unleash at any time.
It might very well be that, for the first time, the man with many lives doesn’t know what comes next.
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