Bloomberg Opinion Today : the devastating toll on Ukraine’s economy and the similar fate that awaits Russia’s; the inspiring determination of Ukrainians amidst incalculable loss of life; the West’s response and the international relationships being put to the test; and what we should have learned from our histories

Bloomberg Opinion Today

February  26, 2023

Friday marked the one-year anniversary of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Bloomberg Opinion writers surveyed the current landscape: the devastating toll on Ukraine’s economy and the similar fate that awaits Russia’s; the inspiring determination of Ukrainians amidst incalculable loss of life; the West’s response and the international relationships being put to the test; and what we should have learned from our histories that could have helped us avert the crisis. Here are the bullet points:

Putin Has Decided to Normalize His War: “The war in Ukraine is not ending anytime soon and that Russians must get used to living with it — especially as, in Putin’s telling, it presents an economic opportunity that’s greater than the sacrifice it requires. That Putin chose to deliver this message a year into the Russian invasion of Ukraine means he has no idea how Russia wins — and that, for want of better options, he’s decided to semaphore that he doesn’t really mind a long war.” — Leonid Bershidsky

Photographer: Yuriy Dyachyshyn/AFP via Getty Images

Russia Is Losing in Ukraine. So Is China: Chinese President Xi Jinping “probably did not expect Putin to invade Ukraine before the ink on their Joint Statement on International Relations was dry. The geopolitical dynamics sparked by the war have since upended the Chinese leader’s strategic calculations, while the anticipated benefits of a Sino-Russian alignment may never materialize.” — Minxin Pei

China’s Only Choice May Be Confronting the US: “A China that is arming Russia against Ukraine is a China that has chosen to accept sharp, sustained tensions with the US, to prioritize the emerging axis of autocracy over longstanding economic partnerships with the advanced democracies, and to engage in an outright proxy war with the West. Say goodbye to any hope of a stable relationship with Washington” if Beijing keeps pushing, Hal Brands writes.

Putin’s Alternate Reality Isn’t Doing Him Any Favors: “Putin was wrong to believe the stories he heard from his chosen historians, advisers, generals and minions inside Russia, as from his partners and sycophants abroad. He understood nothing about reality, or how people in his physical presence would filter it for him. Most importantly, he didn’t even understand enough to recognize that as a phenomenon in itself.” — Andreas Kluth

Getting Pummeled in War Is a 200-Year Russian Tradition: “What changed over the years was Putin, whose loathing for the West, hatred of NATO and the US, and deep, almost operatic sense of tragedy over the collapse of the Soviet Union became an obsession. Indeed, we should stop calling this ‘the Ukrainian War,’ because in so many ways it is the ‘War of Putin’s Ego.’” — James Stavridis

Zelenskiy Has New Challenges in 2023: “Having secured his country from annihilation and annexation, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will need the support of the Global South to pressure Putin to end the war. When the time comes, Ukraine will also require an international consensus to force Russia to pay reparations — and be held accountable for war crimes.” — Bobby Ghosh

However, Ukraine Is Unlikely to Join NATO: “Ukraine may well deserve NATO membership: It has shown incredible courage and capability in bloodying that alliance’s principal enemy. But in global politics, ‘deserve’ doesn’t count for much. Plan B, then, is a Ukraine that is affiliated with but not formally allied to the West — and that has a very powerful military to protect its own independence.” — Hal Brands

The Economic War Against Putin Has Only Just Begun: “One year on, the democratic world is still showing impressive resolve in pushing back against Putin’s assault on Ukraine. Patient, unflinching use of its greatest strategic advantage — economic power — remains necessary to defeat him.” — Bloomberg’s editorial board

Notes: To contact the author of this newsletter, email bsample1@bloomberg.net.

This is the Theme of the Week edition of Bloomberg Opinion Today, a digest of our top commentary published every Sunday.