POLITICO
Forecast
By JAMIE DETTMER
How Erdoğan could emerge stronger from the Iran war
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan addresses the media during a press conference in Ankara, on Feb. 11, 2026. | Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images
There’s been much written about whether Russia’s Vladimir Putin will be among the winners of the Mideast war.The evidence is hard to overlook: rising oil prices, temporary U.S. oil sanctions relief, the world’s attention turned away from an era-defining struggle in Ukraine and the geopolitical legitimacy conferred on the Russian leader by Donald Trump consulting him about Iran.
But the turmoil is offering another leader the chance to emerge strengthened from the conflict raging on Europe’s doorstep — Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who will have plenty of opportunities to spin the tumult for transactional geopolitics thanks largely to his nation’s key geostrategic location.
The war does come with some attendant risks for him — as with Russia, Turkey could suffer serious economic fallout, if war drags on for too long. But the opportunities to project more regional influence and power, to strike beneficial deals with Europe and possibly to act as a mediator and broker potentially outweigh the risks.
And with all eyes fixed on Iran and the Gulf and the global economic mayhem the conflict is causing, the Turkish leader can continue his crackdown on domestic dissent without having to worry about international repercussions. That’s already playing out for him.
Take the show trial that got underway this month of Ekrem Imamoglu, one of the few politicians seen as capable of defeating the Turkish president in any reasonably fair election.
Along with 400 other defendants, the onetime mayor of Istanbul appeared in court nine days after the US and Israel launched the military campaign against Iran. Imamoglu’s rap sheet is over 3,000 pages long, and includes an array of charges, including corruption and leading a criminal organization. Human Rights Watch has described the trial as part of a “concerted effort to remove İmamoğlu from politics and discredit his party in ways that undermine democracy.”
At most other times, one would have expected Brussels to let out a howl of protest. Europe’s leaders did so when the popular mayor was detained a year ago. But this time Brussels has kept silent — it hasn’t even issued a press release condemning the trial. That only highlights the enhanced leverage the Iran war has handed Erdoğan.
“I wasn’t surprised by the EU’s muted response,” said Gönül Tol of the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based think tank. Of course, the very last thing Europe needs is Erdoğan instrumentalizing a fresh refugee crisis and to wave Iranian or Lebanese asylum-seekers through to the EU, if indeed they start trekking to Turkey en route for Europe.
“The Iran war has certainly heightened Turkey’s importance to the EU because it raises the risk of another refugee wave which is a nightmare scenario for European governments,” Tol told Forecast. Of course, turning a “blind eye to Erdoğan’s repression and growing authoritarianism in exchange for cooperation on issues the EU considers critical” isn’t new, she added.
Its roots go back to 2016 when a desperate Brussels struck a migration deal with Erdoğan to curb a largely Syrian refugee influx that roiled Europe and sparked the rise of the continent’s anti-migrant populist movement. With another massive refugee crisis possible, Europe needs to keep Erdoğan sweet.
In addition, as doubts grow about the U.S. commitment underpinning NATO, the Europeans are increasingly eager for greater defense cooperation with Ankara. Turkey boasts NATO’s second-largest military after the U.S. as well as a strong arms and aerospace industry — Turkey is now the world’s 11th largest arms exporter. Turkey’s historic foes, Greece and Cyprus, are none too keen on the idea, but the rest of Europe sees a powerful military ally it might well have need to call on in future.
“Since the beginning of Trump’s second term, there has been growing recognition among European leaders of Turkey’s important position in European security and interaction seems to be increasingly pragmatic and realist,” Grady Wilson of the Atlantic Council’s Turkey Program told Forecast. “The war in Iran may have served to underline this.”
Closer to home in the region, an Iran weakened by the U.S. and Israel serves Ankara’s purposes as well. “Turkey’s influence throughout the region has increased but especially in areas in which it’s been directly competing with Iran such as Syria, Iraq and the South Caucasus. A lot of that can be attributed to Israel’s campaign over the last two-plus years to disrupt Iran’s proxy network and reduce its military capabilities,” Wilson said.
But, of course, there also dangers for Erdoğan. A total collapse of central power in Tehran wouldn’t suit. “Iraq and Syria have shown what happens when central authority collapses. Did Turkey ultimately emerge as a winner in Syria? Maybe yes, but over the course of the Syrian war hundreds of Turkish soldiers died,” Wilson noted.
Adding another refugee influx to the millions already sheltering in Turkey risks fueling a nationalist backlash and could strain Turkey’s economy. “Erdoğan is likely considering early elections in 2027, and stabilizing the economy before then is critical. Rising oil prices threaten the limited progress Turkey has made since he abandoned his unorthodox economic policies,” Tol said.
Nonetheless, a short war that leaves the regime in Tehran still clinging to power could play to Erdoğan’s advantage.
“Turkey’s importance for Europe is only going to increase,“ said Galip Dalay, a consulting fellow at Chatham House. “The EU’s idea is that it would reshape the surrounding neighborhood, but the reverse is happening — the neighborhood is reshaping Europe, what with the consequences of the Syrian war, refugees and radicalism, Libya and now Iran. In this regard, all the geopolitical developments of recent times have only increased Turkey’s value for the EU.”
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