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April 4, 2025 |
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Jonathan Czin argues that while the Trump administration may seek a major trade deal with China, the most problematic outcome could be a “grand bargain” that extends beyond trade to technology and security issues. He assesses that Beijing’s ultimate goal is to sideline the United States while it amasses global influence, which could lead China to seek to roll back U.S. investment restrictions, tech controls, and security commitments.
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Patricia Kim, Ryan Hass, and Emilie Kimball convened six Brookings experts as part of the Global China project to debate what role China should play in Ukraine. While some scholars argued that China could be helpful in post-war reconstruction or deterrence, others remain skeptical of China’s role given the country’s alignment with Russia to date.
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China and Russia's strategic relationship amid a shifting geopolitical landscape
As part of the Brookings China Center's series "The future of U.S.-China policy: Recommendations for the incoming administration,” Patricia Kim interviews experts Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Angela Stent, Tara Varma, and Ali Wyne to assess the future trajectory of China-Russia relations, as well as trans-Atlantic and China-Europe relations. They explore a “reverse Nixon” strategy, China’s strategic calculus, the future of the China-Russia-North Korea-Iran “axis,” and Europe’s uncertain path forward.
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What are the key drivers of Xi's economic policy in 2025?
Jonathan Czin argues that Xi Jinping is deliberately prioritizing long-term techno-industrial goals over short-term stimulus, choosing to stabilize rather than stimulate China’s macroeconomy. Despite mounting economic challenges, Czin contends that China retains the capacity to endure a second trade war, and the United States may have less leverage than it assumes.
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More research and commentary
Assessing Xi’s abnormalization of Chinese politics. Jon Czin wrote an essay for China Leadership Monitor analyzing how Xi Jinping has systematically dismantled Deng Xiaoping’s post-Mao political reforms, steering China toward a new model of governance grounded in control rather than revolution or reform.
China’s growth model fails to meet the moment. Mary Gallagher published a column for World Politics Review on how China’s 2025 “Two Meetings” signal a continued reliance on pro-growth, manufacturing-led policies while avoiding deeper fiscal reforms. She flags the risk of Beijing's approach generating external backlash as overcapacity grows and foreign markets miss out on the benefits of stronger Chinese consumption.
China’s plan to boost consumption. Mary Gallagher assesses China’s new consumption plan, a in a column for World Politics Review which treats spending as a means to support state priorities.
Trump’s Canadian threats. Diana Fu examines wrote President Trump's announcement to resume tariffs on Canada and Mexico in commentary for The Medium, citing drug trafficking concerns, and the resulting economic uncertainty and tensions over Canadian sovereignty.
AI usage at universities. Lan Xue co-authored a paper on artificial intelligence’s risk in higher education applications.
Assessing the US-China competition. Ryan Hass joined Jude Blanchette for the Foreign Affairs Interview on Beijing’s assessment of American power, the prospects for a “grand bargain” between Trump and Xi, and whether fears of American decline risk becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Charting US-China policy under Trump. Ryan Hass was interviewed alongside Jessica Chen-Weiss by the Sinica Podcast on lessons from Biden’s China policy, the outlook for U.S.-China relations under Trump, and the need for America to develop affirmative strategic vision.
The view from Xi Jinping’s desk. Jonathan Czin discussed the future of US-China relations under Trump, the prospects of a trade deal, Chinese domestic succession politics, and Xi’s worldview with Bill Bishop on Sinocism Live on Substack.
President Lai’s speech. Ryan Hass was quoted by the New York Times on the domestic political motivations behind Taiwan President Lai's speech on China.
Chinese perceptions of Elon Musk. Ryan Hass was quoted in the Washington Post on how Chinese officials and scholars view Elon Musk.
Beijing’s view on the U.S.-China trade war. Patricia Kim was quoted by the Washington Post on Chinese perspectives regarding the U.S.-China trade war.
Xi’s consolidation of power. Jon Czin was quoted by the New York Times on Xi Jinping’s control over the Chinese Communist Party and the absence of a clear successor.
US-Russia-China trilateral relationship. Patricia Kim was quoted by Bloomberg on what a US-Russia reproachment would mean for China.
Beijing’s CK-Hutchinson strategy. Patricia Kim was quoted by Reuters on how Beijing’s criticism of the CK-Hutchinson deal relates to its overall strategy towards the Trump administration.
Prospects of a US-China deal. Yun Sun was quoted by the New York Times on the possibility of a US-China agreement.
Beijing’s response to Trump’s tariffs. Yun Sun was quoted by the New York Times on how Beijing is reacting to Trump’s tariff threats by blaming poor communication channels.
Asian allies on Trump’s proposed tariffs. Yun Sun was quoted by NPR on fears in Asia that Trump’s tariff threats can escalate in their region. |
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