The JAMESTOWN Foundation Eurasia Daily Monitor China Enables Russia’s War of Aggression Against Ukraine Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 21 Issue: 127 By: Taras Kuzio September 10, 2024 05:10 PM

 The JAMESTOWN Foundation 

Eurasia Daily Monitor

China Enables Russia’s War of Aggression Against Ukraine

Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 21 Issue: 127

By: Taras Kuzio

September 10, 2024 05:10 PM Age: 3 days

(Source: Kremlin.ru)

Executive Summary:

Since the Kremlin began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the West imposed its sanctions against Moscow, Russia has been relying on China to supply materials to maintain its military-industrial complex.

China does not wish to see Russia defeated as this would set back its common ideological goal of building a new global order with itself as a major center of influence.

China is not a neutral actor in Russia’s illegal war of aggression and is duplicitous on Ukraine’s territorial integrity and, as the “decisive enabler,” has no moral right to be involved in peace talks.

On July 23–26, former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba conducted an official visit to China—the first visit of a Ukrainian high-ranking official to China since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The visit resulted in positive diplomatic rhetoric that, unfortunately, did not match reality (Radio Svoboda, July 23; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, July 24). During the visit, Beijing told Kuleba it supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, did not supply Russia with military equipment, and was neutral in the war (Korrespondent, July 24). All three claims, however, have been disputed. Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who has tracked exports to Russia directly or through other countries, such as Kyrgyzstan, wrote, “Since Russia invaded Ukraine, there is no country that’s helped Putin as much as China” (X.com/robin_j_brooks, August 12). He added, “Putin wouldn’t be able to keep fighting in Ukraine if it weren’t for China” (X.com/robin_j_brooks, August 16). While China is apparently a supporter of the territorial integrity of states and a critic of separatism, it has undermined Ukraine’s peace-making proposals and even boycotted Ukraine’s June 15–16 peace summit in Switzerland (Holos Ameryky, June 3; President.gov.ua, June 16). China’s support of Russia in its war of aggression against Ukraine is enabling Moscow to continue the long war by providing the necessary materials to maintain its military-industrial complex.

Despite evidence of military trade with Russia, China denies these “allegations,” which it claims “have no factual basis, but are purely speculative and deliberately hyped up” (Novyny, July 31). US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said China is trying to have friendly relations with Europe both ways while “fueling the biggest threat to Europe” since 1991. 

Western and Chinese policies are both contributing to the long war. This is advantageous to China because it keeps US attention away from the Indo-Pacific region. Western military support is sufficient for Ukraine not to be defeated but insufficient to achieve military victory. Chinese military support is sufficient for Russia not to be defeated but also insufficient for military victory. The West fears a Russian defeat because it could bring about chaos in a nuclear-armed empire. China does not wish to see the defeat of Russia because it would set back its common ideological goal with Russia of building a new global (multipolar) order where it would be a major center of influence. 

Russia’s defeat in Ukraine of a “demoralized” West and “stagnant bourgeois democracies” would vindicate the Marxist theory of history and China’s place on the right side of history. Chinese President Xi Jinping predicted in 2021, “The times and trends are on our side” (Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, December 15, 2021). When visiting Moscow in 2023, Xi was overheard talking to Putin about “changes unseen in a century,” adding, “We are the ones driving these changes together” (Rosiiskaya Gazeta, March 21, 2023).

China has continued to support Russia in numerous subtle ways since its war began, specifically its economy, while denying this collaboration. After losing its main European market, China and India are the biggest importers of Russian energy. Former UK Defense Minister Grant Shapps stated China is exporting military equipment to Russia and “collaborating on combat equipment for use in Ukraine” (Evropeyska Pravda, May 22). China denies this. The United States stated that China is sending critical components and dual-use goods to Russia. Beijing admits to this trade in dual-use goods, claiming that it is in accordance with international law. China’s exports of transportation equipment to Russia remain near record highs, and exporting trucks to Russia allows the Russian company Kamaz to switch production to military needs (Riddle, July 11; Carnegie Endowment, May 6). 

After failing to defeat Ukraine in three days and having to contend with the ensuing flow of Western military aid to the embattled country, Russia approached Iran for help after Türkiye turned down supplying Bayraktar drones (Al Jazeera, July 19, 2022). In 2022, China was cautious, but it deepened its military commitment to Russia in March 2023 following Xi’s visit to Moscow (Kremlin.ru, March 20, 2023). Chinese-Russian trade grew to a record $200 billion in 2023, with exports of dual-use goods tripling (TASS, December 19, 2023). China became an equal partner with Russia’s military-industrial complex, increasing its imports of Russian arms and becoming the major supplier of dual-use goods (machine tools, microelectronics, nitrocellulose) and military goods (vehicles, drones, body armor, gunpowder, satellite imagery) to Russia (Ekonomichna Pravda, April). Since early 2023, China has been Russia’s largest supplier of military equipment and dual-use goods (KSE Institute, June 19, 2023). 

China’s calculus changed in Spring 2023. Western military support only ramped up from equipment for guerilla warfare after Russia was defeated in the Kyiv region in March 2022. Western military support to Ukraine has always been drip-fed, with tanks, long-range missiles, and jets sent hesitantly and with restrictions on their use inside Russia (see EDM, February 21, 2023, June 4, July 5). After the Ukrainian rout of Russian forces in Kharkiv in September 2022, the West did not increase its military support to provide a knockout punch to win the war (see EDM, September 15, 2022). The United States and Germany have never stated their goal is Russia’s military defeat, fearing escalation to a direct conflict between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) or nuclear Armageddon. In contrast, during the ten-month hiatus between the Kharkiv rout and Ukraine’s counter-offensive (September 2022–June 2023), China supplied digging and dirt removal equipment that enabled Russia to build the “Surovikin lines” (fortifications named after General Sergey Surovikin) (see EDM, August 8, 2023; RBC-Ukraine, August 22, 2023). Chinese exports of excavators to Russia tripled in early 2023 (China-Russia Report, August 23, 2023).

Western components arrive in Russia via Hong Kong, Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, Kyrgyzstan, and other intermediary countries. Technology company DJI, which produces 90 percent of the world’s consumer drones, stated it had no control over its products being bought by countries and re-exported to Russia and Ukraine (Ekonomichna Pravda, October 24, 2023). US President Joe Biden expressed concern at “private companies” in China exporting military goods to Russia; the private sector is not an independent actor in China’s communist dictatorship (The Wall Street Journal, April 2). China is exporting “military applicable parts” to sanctioned Russian defense companies. Twenty-six distinct Chinese firms have exported drones and drone engines to Russia (The New York Times, March 21, 2023). China also exports rifles, body armor, navigation equipment for military transport helicopters, jamming technology, and cruise missile engines. Additionally, it exports components for military equipment, including jet fighter parts, machine tools for ballistic missiles, parts for mobile radars, computer chips, optical components for Russian tanks and armored personnel carriers, and electronic circuitry for radio communications, surveillance, navigation, and satellite geolocation  (The Moscow Times, March 17, 2023). China supplies 70 percent of Russia’s machine tools and 90 percent of its microelectronics and has provided enough gunpowder to produce 80 million rounds of ammunition (see China Brief, August 18, 2023; see EDM, January 22; Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, April 12).

Although the United States and European Union have sanctioned only 20 Chinese and Hong Kong state and private companies, numerous Chinese state and private companies are exporting military equipment and dual-use goods to Russia (Suspilne Novyny, May 22). These include Aviation Technology Corporation, Sinno Electronics, Poly Technologies, Fujian Nanan Baofeng Electronics, AVIC International Holding Corporation, DJI, Wuhan Global Sensor Technology, Wuhan Tongsheng Technology, Hikvision, North China Research Institution, Shantou Honghu Plastics, Tianjin Huarong Aviation, and Deekon Shanghai (The Wall Street Journal, February 4, 2023; Politico, July 24, 2023; The Telegraph, August 19, 2023; Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, February 8; RBC-Ukraine, April 13;  US Treasury Department, May 1).

China is not a neutral actor in Russia’s illegal war of aggression. Beijing is duplicitous on Ukraine’s territorial integrity and, in the words of NATO, is the “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war. As such, it has no moral right to be involved in peace talks (TSN, July 11). China could end Russia’s ability to continue its war against Ukraine, but its priority is not to permit Russia’s defeat (Holos Ameryky, June 3; Forbes Ukraine, July 11). As Finnish President Alexander Stubb said, “One phone call from President Xi Jinping would resolve this crisis” (Espreso, July 3).