CHATHAM HOUSE
Zelenskyy makes one final attempt to change Biden’s strategy on Ukraine
The debate about Ukraine’s use of US long-range missiles illustrates the broader strategic divide between Washington and Kyiv. Despite his efforts, Zelenskyy’s US visit did not help narrow this gap.
Expert comment
Published 27 September 2024
3 minute READ
Orysia Lutsevych OBE
Deputy Director, Russia and Eurasia Programme; Head of the Ukraine Forum
Yesterday’s meeting between presidents Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Joe Biden was likely their last. Beyond thanking Biden for a surge in military assistance and leading a free democratic world in support of Ukraine, Zelenskyy had one last go at achieving something bigger.
Kyiv wants Washington to align with its strategic objectives and defeat Putin in Ukraine. Zelenskyy’s ‘victory plan’ is, of course, a war plan that calls for military and financial support, increased sanction pressure on Russia and a new post-war security arrangement. Zelenskyy believes that NATO extending an invitation to Ukraine now is the only step that can reassure Ukrainians about their future security, enable rebuilding – and signal to Putin that it he cannot win.
Biden’s statement after the meeting with Zelenskyy again emphasized that ‘Putin will not prevail’ – leaving a degree of ambiguity.
Until now, there has been no such strategic alignment. Since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, Biden has supported Ukraine just enough to prevent Putin from realizing his war aims: to occupy and absorb all of Ukraine. Biden’s statement after the meeting with Zelenskyy again emphasized that ‘Putin will not prevail’ – leaving a degree of ambiguity.
The Biden administration’s actions have been primarily driven by a risk management logic, less so a war-winning strategy. Fear of escalation has delayed key decisions and negatively impacted the course of the war for Ukraine. Russia continues to skilfully exploit and sustain this logic by feeding the narrative of ‘nuclear Armageddon’, and even amended its nuclear doctrine on the eve of the Biden-Zelenskyy meeting.
The Kremlin’s ‘victory plan’ is working: to make the West believe that a nuclear power cannot be defeated in a conventional war so they should stay on the sidelines – and that Ukraine cannot possibly win. Moscow runs a myriad of disinformation campaigns to this precise effect.
The incrementalism of US military assistance has created this protracted war and impeded exploitation of Ukraine’s hard-won gains on the battlefield, allowing Russia to adapt and reconstitute its military. The US has, to date, provided about $55 billion of military aid to Ukraine. This dwarfs US spending on any other war in recent history, and is a mere fraction of its $841 billion annual military budget.
Permanent delays in key decisions further endanger Ukraine. Procrastinating over Abrams tanks, F16 fighter jets, multiple rocket launchers, and now the ‘permissible’ range of ATACMS and Storm Shadows may well be the legacy of this administration. The $5.5 billion of new funding Biden announced yesterday was due to expire in four days. This is no way to win the war.
Such foot-dragging is because the fear in the White House of what Russian defeat might trigger is greater than the appeal of Ukrainian victory. Meanwhile, Zelenskyy and the people of Ukraine remain committed to fully defeating Russian forces inside Ukraine, ending the occupation and annexation of its territory and bringing its main perpetrators to justice. It is along those lines that Zelenskyy addressed the UN General Assembly this week.
Zelenskyy’s plea to Biden was two-fold. First, bring this war into Russian territory to create domestic pressure and stir elite conflict within the system. Second, destroy Russia’s means of waging war: munition warehouses, airfields, command and control locations. As it stands, Ukraine is forced to fight in close combat situations and struggles with threadbare air defence against glide bombs, ballistic missiles and drones.
Zelenskyy’s plan is mainly a list of capabilities needed to shift the balance on the battlefield in Ukraine’s favour. It outlines the impact they can have and under what terms they should be delivered. It also includes a plea for more high-tech weapons and US investment in the joint production of unmanned vehicles and other electronic warfare tools.
The desired outcome should be a message from the Russian generals to the Kremlin that they are losing this war. The only way the Kremlin will end the war is when there is a serious risk of implosion of its frontlines in Ukraine.
Kyiv has tried to dispel the fear of escalation by quite literally crossing Putin’s ‘lines’: the counter-occupation of over 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory in the Kursk region, long-range drone attacks on oil refineries, destroying the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea and hitting (though not yet destroying) the Kerch Bridge. It has become a common saying in Kyiv that Ukraine has pulled so many red threads from under Putin, it can make a carpet to receive Biden in Ukraine.
Zelenskyy’s appeal to Biden, as well as presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, is that if Putin is not stopped in Ukraine, America will face more conflict in the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Africa (where Russia seeks influence). His argument is that Putin’s territorial gains in Ukraine clearly show that the entirety of the free world could not stop military revisionism. This will resonate with Harris, whose campaign communication includes strong support for Ukraine. Zelenskyy is also the only foreign leader she has met this week.
Image — US President Joe Biden meets with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on 26 September 2024. Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images.
Trump has agreed to meet with Zelenskyy but – even if the meeting takes place – Trump is unlikely to listen to this argument and their relationship is in a downward spiral. His camp has reverted to the familiar tactic of accusing Ukraine of US election interference. Trump personally believes this was the case in the 2016 election. This accusation comes after Zelenskyy’s visit to a munitions factory in the swing state of Pennsylvania.
Winning the war, if that is really the objective, will be up to the next occupant of the White House.
Yet Biden can still make a difference by providing the necessary capabilities as part of the $5.5 billion Presidential Drawdown Authority , announced before the meeting with Zelenskyy. In addition to long-range ATACMS missiles, Kyiv is asking for air-to-surface JASSM missiles that operate on US-designed F-16s, and other US-made jets. The US also holds over $20 billion of Russian sovereign assets that could be directed as budget finance and military contracts with US defence companies to supply Kyiv next year.
Ukraine’s fight is about buying time for the rest of the democratic world to get its act together. Biden’s time is running out. What he can still do, though, is strengthen Ukraine’s position on the battlefield ahead of winter and make it harder to pull the plug on US military aid next year. Winning the war, if that is really the objective, will be up to the next occupant of the White House.
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