The IDF is still investigating whether Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah survived the IDF strike that targeted his headquarters in Dahieh, Beirut, on September 27.[1] The IDF reported on September 27 that the IDF targeted Nasrallah in Hezbollah’s underground central command headquarters.[2] IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari reported that the IDF is still investigating whether Nasrallah survived the airstrike.[3] Israeli officials told the New York Times that Israeli leadership decided to conduct the strike after receiving real-time intelligence indicating that Nasrallah was present for a meeting.[4] Israeli media speculated after reviewing imagery and video that the IDF used multiple large bunker-buster bombs to penetrate and destroy Hezbollah‘s underground command center.[5] An unspecified source close to Hezbollah cited by Agence France-Presse (AFP) claimed that Nasrallah is ”fine.”[6]
The IDF is conducting a decapitation campaign targeting senior Hezbollah leadership as part of its air campaign across Lebanon. This campaign could impact Hezbollah’s ability to effectively organize and direct its forces. The IDF reported that its September 24 airstrike which killed Hezbollah’s Rocket and Missile Unit Commander Ibrahim Muhammad Qabisi also killed Qabisi’s deputy Abbas Sharafeddine and a senior commander from Hezbollah’s missile division, Hussein Ezzeddine.[7] Ezzeddine was reportedly close to the former top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, who Israel killed in late July.[8] The IDF has conducted several major airstrikes in recent days targeting senior Hezbollah commanders and their communication networks.[9] CTP-ISW noted that Israel detonating Hezbollah pagers and personal radios disrupted the group’s internal communications and may have prompted the group to begin using less secure methods of communication that Israel could then intercept and exploit.[10]
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel seeks to defeat Hezbollah in Lebanon and destroy Hamas in Gaza, and the achievement of these objectives would fundamentally change the security landscape in the Middle East.[11] Defeating both groups would also either achieve or create conditions to achieve all of Israel’s war aims. These war aims are destroying Hamas as a governing and military force, preventing terrorist attacks in Israel, returning the hostages, protecting Israel’s borders, and returning citizens to the north.[12] Iran has historically relied on Hezbollah to implement its Middle Eastern strategy. Hezbollah trainers have trained Iraqi, Syrian, and Houthi fighters to support Iran’s regional goals.[13] Hezbollah also supported Iran by deploying forces into Syria to support the Bashar al Assad regime.[14] Both Hamas and Hezbollah have used their large, well-developed non-state military forces to threaten Israel from the north and south in support of Iranian objectives.[15] The defeat or severe degradation of these two groups would significantly alter the current security architecture in the Middle East that has prevailed since at least the mid-2000s.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel has “destroyed nearly all of Hamas battalions” and is now focused on eliminating Hamas’ remaining fighting capabilities, which is generally consistent with CTP-ISW's assessment of Hamas’ current strength.[16] CTP-ISW assesses that Israeli operations have defeated or severely degraded Hamas units across the Gaza Strip.[17] Defeat occurs when an enemy force has temporarily or permanently lost the physical means or the will to fight and is forced to yield to the friendly commander’s will. Hamas’ units do not appear to be fighting as cohesive military formations.[18] Defeating Hamas militarily is a prerequisite to destroying the group militarily and politically. Destroying Hamas as a military organization requires the IDF to damage Hamas’ military forces to such a degree that they cannot function without being entirely rebuilt.[19] Destroying Hamas as a political organization would require additional political measures, including the creation of a transitional governing authority to rule the Strip. Defeating or destroying Hamas would prevent future terrorist attacks from the Gaza Strip and remove one entity that Iran can use to attack Israel.
Netanyahu said that Israel seeks to “defeat Hezbollah,” which would return Israeli citizens to the north.[20] The ongoing Israeli air campaign has severely damaged Hezbollah’s command-and-control network. Hezbollah has so far failed to cease rocket fire into northern Israel, and Israel’s top military commanders are signaling that a ground operation may be necessary to accomplish Israel’s war aims. These operations are presumably designed to defeat Hezbollah’s will or ability to continue the fight, thereby forcing Hezbollah to end its attacks and allowing Israeli citizens to return to the north. The Hezbollah that would emerge from such a war would be severely damaged and unable to execute the activities it traditionally has—at least for a time—thus leading to profound changes in regional security architecture. These changes would likely require Iran to make a series of choices related to how it would manage its Axis of Resistance in the future.
Israeli Air Force Commander Major General Tomer Bar reported on September 26 that the IDF Air Force is preparing to provide air support for a potential ground operation into Lebanon.[21] Bar stated that the Air Force would work with Israeli ground forces to provide air cover and destroy targets above and below ground. IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi told Israeli forces on September 25 that the Israeli air campaign into Lebanon is “prepar[ing] the area for the possibility of [Israeli forces’] entry.”[22] Halevi said that the IDF is preparing for maneuver operations that would involve Israeli forces engaging Hezbollah fighters and advancing into Lebanese towns and villages that are Hezbollah “military outposts.” Hezbollah operates dozens of so-called “military areas“ close to civilian, UNIFIL, and Lebanese Army infrastructure in southern Lebanon.[23] Israeli Security Cabinet approved new war aims on September 16 as part of the October 7 War to return Israeli citizens to their homes in northern Israel.[24] The 2006 Israel-Hezbollah War taught the IDF the lesson that airstrikes alone cannot stop Hezbollah rocket barrages, even when such an air campaign is very effectively designed and executed on a tactical level.[25]
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