CLM China İeadership Monitor (Fall 2024 Issue 81) Çin'le ilgili beş adet makale ve bir mülakat

 

China Leadership Monitor Fall 2024 Issue 81

Dear CLM Subscriber,   The new issue of China Leadership Monitor has been released online and can now be accessed. You can also find the issue's articles and interview below.   Thank you for reading CLM.

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China's Economy Has Peaked. Can Beijing Redefine its Goals? Logan Wright

Nothing in economic development is certain, but China’s economy has probably already peaked in size as a proportion of the global economy, reaching the peak in 2021. China now faces a structural economic slowdown as the financial system constrains economic growth rather than facilitating it. These economic pressures are directly linked to the end of an unprecedented credit and investment expansion during the previous decade. The resulting credit crunch has produced a collapse in property investment and slower local government infrastructure investment. Moreover, GDP growth has almost certainly been overstated in the official data both in both 2022 and 2023. The costs of years of low-return investments now prevent Beijing from redirecting the financial system, making it difficult to unleash improvements in efficiency or “new quality productive forces.” However, nothing about Beijing’s behavior in response to this structural slowdown is inevitable, as China’s leaders can adjust their economic objectives and potentially ease tensions with the rest of the world by publicly acknowledging a slower growth trajectory.

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Do Chinese Leaders and Elites Think Their Best Days Are Behind Them? Minxin Pei

Despite its current economic slump, official statements by senior Chinese leaders indicate that they remain optimistic about the country’s economic future. They have responded critically to the “peak China” thesis, providing a lengthy list of favorable factors in support of their optimistic assessment of China’s future trajectory, such as the country’s advantages of scale, accumulated economic resources and technological capabilities, and its new development framework crafted to mitigate the effects of U.S.-led containment.   Although Chinese leaders’ optimism is partly grounded in reality, it may be premature because the country’s immense potential will unlikely be realized without effective implementation of the necessary reforms. Examination of statements by senior Chinese leaders does not provide useful clues as to whether or when Chinese power will peak. However, it does show that Chinese leaders do not believe that their best days are behind them.

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Organizing American Policy Around “Peak China” is a Bad Bet Ryan Hass

China’s leaders confront mounting internal and external headwinds to their country’s continuing rise. At home, Beijing’s economic engine is sputtering. Abroad, countries are pushing back against Chinese attempts to export its way to economic growth.  On the security front, countries are banding together to guard against China’s expansion in military capabilities. This confluence of challenges has caused some American analysts to declare the end of China’s rise and warn that Beijing could lash out militarily before it begins its downturn in national power. China’s leaders explicitly reject suggestions that the country’s best days are behind it. They believe China’s path to greater global influence is widening as America’s dominance in the international system wanes. It would be a mistake to organize American policy around “peak China” theory. The United States and China are locked in a long-term competition for global influence. This competition ultimately will turn on national performance. That is where America’s policy focus must reside for the United States to preserve its privileged position in the world.

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China’s Persistent Global Influence Despite Economic Growth Challenges Zongyuan Zoe Liu

Despite its economic growth challenges, China’s global influence remains strong due to its significant role in international finance and development. China invests globally not because of its excess capital but to serve domestic needs. Since 2016, China has consistently ranked among the top three in foreign direct investment flows and has been the world’s largest bilateral official creditor since 2017. Chinese state-directed capital has amplified China’s geo-economic clout, with substantial investments in overseas assets, including foreign firms and critical infrastructures. China’s international creditor position and global development initiatives have made it a formidable force in redefining the sovereign debt restructuring negotiations process and reshaping global governance. China’s competitive clean energy industrial sectors, such as electric vehicles and batteries, will continue challenging Western industries. Finally, China’s efforts to promote an alternative financial system to mitigate geopolitical risks advance its continued global presence.

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Has Xi Jinping Reached His Peak? Power Concentration versus Governance Capability Guoguang Wu

Through analyzing the strengths and limitations of Xi Jinping’s power in its interactions with the CCP regime’s governance performance, this article summarizes Xi’s accomplishments of concentrating power in contrast to his ineffectiveness in promoting his governance programs, presents evidence of regime elite resistance to Xi’s power and policy, and contends that Xi is now trapped in the same power-policy deadlock that during his first ten years in office facilitated his rapid concentration of power. The article thus argues that Xi’s power has now peaked due to the existence of such a deadlock, and any possible moves on his part to further concentrate power will inevitably and increasingly harm regime governance in general as well as Xi’s own authority within elite politics in particular.

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CLM Insights Interview with Oriana Skylar Mastro on their recent book: ​ Upstart: How China Became a Great Power   Read More

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