The War in Gaza to Continue
June 17, 2024
On May 31, President Biden announced that Israel has offered a comprehensive new proposal. He described the three-phase Israeli plan as a roadmap to an enduring ceasefire and the release of all hostages. He added that the proposal had been transmitted by Qatar to Hamas.[i]
The next day, Prime Minister Netanyahu, while not openly rejecting or endorsing the plan stated that Israel’s conditions for ending the war had not changed: the destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages, and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel. “The notion that Israel will agree to a permanent ceasefire before these conditions are fulfilled is a non-starter,” he added.
This led to some confusion but it was generally agreed that the plan had been negotiated between the US and the Israeli war cabinet. Hamas’s initial reaction was that it had a positive view of the contents of a three-phase ceasefire.
On June 8, the IDF, in a long-prepared expansive operation with help from US intelligence services, freed four hostages but left more than two hundred Gazans dead in the Nuseirat refugee camp.
Two days later, the UN Security Council, through Resolution 2735 (2024), endorsed the plan announced by President Biden.[ii] By the same Resolution it rejected any attempt at demographic or territorial change in the Gaza Strip, including any actions that reduce the territory of Gaza; reiterated its unwavering commitment to the vision of the two-state solution; and stressed the importance of unifying the Gaza Strip with the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority.
Fourteen of the Council members voted in favor, with Russia abstaining. After the vote, US Ambassador Thomas-Greenfield said, “Today, this Council sent a clear message to Hamas – accept the ceasefire deal on the table.” “Israel has already agreed” she added, underscoring that if Hamas does the same, “the fighting can stop today”. Israel’s representative said that the war would not end until all hostages were returned, and Hamas’ capabilities were “dismantled,” accusing the Palestinian group of using “endless negotiations… as a means to stall for time.”
Then came Secretary Blinken’s eighth trip to the region since the Hamas attack of October 7. Throughout his visit, he repeated that the ceasefire deal depended solely on Hamas’s agreement.
In remarks to the press on his first stop in Cairo, Secretary Blinken said that the proposal put forward by President Biden was endorsed by countries throughout the region, and around the world and the UN Security Council and Israel accepted it, adding, “And the only outlier in this moment – the only outlier in this moment – is Hamas. So my message to governments throughout the region, to people throughout the region is: If you want a ceasefire, press Hamas to say yes.”
In response to a question referring to the statement mentioned above by Prime Minister Netanyahu, Mr. Blinken said, “First, let me be very clear: Israel has accepted the proposal. In fact, they were critical in putting it forward. So the only party that has not accepted, the only party that’s not said yes is Hamas. That’s who everyone is waiting on.”
In Tel-Aviv, he again said that everyone, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, agrees with the proposal, the only exception being Hamas.
Finally, on June 12 in Doha with Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Al Thani at a joint press conference he said, “So we were waiting on one response, and that was the response from Hamas. And as the prime minister said, last night we received a response. Hamas has proposed numerous changes to the proposal that was on the table. We discussed those changes last night with Egyptian colleagues and today with the prime minister. Some of the changes are workable; some are not.”[iii]
Israel has not publicly endorsed the three-phase plan yet.
Talks will continue but for Washington, the responsibility for lack of progress lies entirely with Hamas.
If a ceasefire along similar lines were to be agreed upon at some stage, this would be for six weeks in the first phase. Then the challenge would be extending it further if not permanently under the second phase of the now UN-endorsed plan. However, a Hamas official has told CNN that the duration of the ceasefire was a key issue for Hamas, which is concerned that Israel has no intention of following through with the second phase of the deal. The end of hostilities must be permanent, he said, and Israel must withdraw from Gaza completely. Thus, the third phase, the start of a major multi-year reconstruction plan for Gaza remains a very long shot. Barring a miracle, the war would extend into 2025.
Mr. Netanyahu will address a joint session of the US Congress on July 24, a little more than three months before the US presidential election. And with a Trump White House, the path to lasting peace in the Middle East will likely become more complicated.
Last week, President Biden’s son was convicted of three felony counts. Two weeks ago, Mr. Trump became the first former American president to be convicted of felony crimes. Both convictions are a testament to America’s attachment to democracy, the separation of powers, and the independence of the judiciary. They set an example to follow for the world. Anything remotely similar in the broad Middle East is unthinkable.
It goes without saying that a felon’s becoming the president of the US would leave world democracies wondering. According to a Pew Research Center survey of April 24, 2024, reflecting their dissatisfaction with the Biden-Trump rematch, nearly half of American registered voters (49%) say that, if they could decide the major party candidates for the 2024 election, they would replace both Biden and Trump on the ballot.[iv] If a similar survey were conducted in the West, never mind the Rest, the percentage would be much higher.
As for Türkiye, with our thriving democracy and booming economy, we are enjoying a ten-day Eid al-Adha holiday.
[i] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/05/31/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-middle-east-2/
[ii] https://www.un.org/en/media/accreditation/pdf/SCRes1.pdf
[iii] https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-qatari-prime-minister-and-minister-of-foreign-affairs-mohammed-bin-abdulrahman-al-thani-at-a-joint-press-availability-3/
[iv] https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/24/in-tight-presidential-race-voters-are-broadly-critical-of-both-biden-and-trump/
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