Tuesday, June 18, 2024

Ali Tuygan ( Rtd. ambassador) : The Summit on Peace in Ukraine - June 18, 2024

 

The Summit on Peace in Ukraine  

June 18, 2024

The Summit, organized by Switzerland, took place at Bürgenstock on June 15-16, 2024. The task of the meeting was to develop a common understanding of a path towards a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. In the absence of Russia and China expectations from the summit were modest. No one anticipated a debate on what a postwar settlement would look like or Ukraine’s hopes of joining NATO. Nonetheless, attendance was high. After all, countries across the globe are interested in peace in Ukraine regardless of their vision of the endgame.

Switzerland had invited over 160 delegations to attend the summit. 92 countries and 8 international organizations took part. 57 Countries were represented by their heads of state, 29 at ministerial level, and 6 sent envoys.[i] According to the Swiss Department of Foreign Affairs, 82 participating states and organizations signed the “Joint Communiqué on a Peace Framework”.[ii] Türkiye was among the signatories. Saudi Arabia, India, South Africa, Thailand, Indonesia, Mexico, and the United Arab Emirates attended the summit but did not sign the Joint Communique. Brazil attended with “observer status” and did not endorse the text.

The Joint Communique said that the summit was built on the previous discussions that have taken place based on Ukraine’s Peace Formula and other peace proposals that are in line with international law, including the United Nations Charter.

Through the Joint Communique, the signatories reaffirmed their commitment to refraining from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, the principles of sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of all states, including Ukraine, within their internationally recognized borders, including territorial waters, and the resolution of disputes through peaceful means as principles of international law.

The Joint Communique also said that:

  • Any use of nuclear energy and nuclear installations must be safe, secure, safeguarded, and environmentally sound. And, in an indirect reference to President Putin’s latest remarks on Russia’s nuclear arsenal, they stated that any threat or use of nuclear weapons in the context of the ongoing war against Ukraine is inadmissible.
  • Food security must not be weaponized in any way. Ukrainian agricultural products should be securely and freely provided to interested third countries.
  • All prisoners of war must be released by complete exchange.
  • Reaching peace requires the involvement of and dialogue between all parties and decided to undertake concrete steps in the future in the above-mentioned areas with further engagement of the representatives of all parties.

Unfortunately, in today’s unruly world, references to the obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of states, resolution of disputes through peaceful means, respect for the UN Charter, expressions of concern on the possible use of nuclear weapons and food security are generalities. Regardless of their actual behavior, countries do not challenge them.

In brief, the summit did not break new ground. Focus rapidly shifted from the summit to President Putin’s trip to North Korea.

Two days before the Bürgenstock Summit, Presidents Biden and Zelensky signed the ten-year “Bilateral Security Agreement Between the United States of America and Ukraine”, reaffirming that Ukraine’s future is in NATO.[iii] The agreement, however, an executive one, will not be ratified by Congress. Should Mr. Trump who has always been critical of the US-NATO relationship return to the White House in January, he could withdraw from the agreement, forswear Washington’s commitment.

As for the G-7 countries’ support for Kyiv, again two days before the summit, their leaders reached a preliminary agreement to finance Ukraine with a loan of up to $50 billion, that would be repaid by interest and profits from nearly $300 billion in frozen Russian assets held in the West.

On June 14, President Putin met with the senior officials of the Russian Foreign Ministry. In extensive remarks to the group, he elaborated on the end of the Cold War. He mentioned a unique opportunity that existed at the time to build a reliable and just international security order, adding that Russia was determined to engage in constructive work of this nature.[iv]

He criticized the West’s failure to respond to Russia only saying that there were no plans to attack Russia, and the expansion of NATO was not directed against Russia. He emphasized that the West effectively forgot about the promises made to the Soviet Union and later Russia in the late 1980s and early 1990s that the bloc would not accept new members.

Finally, President Putin laid out his terms for a ceasefire in Ukraine. He said:

“… these conditions are simple. The Ukrainian troops must be completely withdrawn from the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics and Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. Let me note that they must be withdrawn from the entire territory of these regions within their administrative borders at the time of their being part of Ukraine.

“As soon as Kiev declares that it is ready to make this decision and begin a real withdrawal of troops from these regions, and also officially notifies that it abandons its plans to join NATO, our side will follow an order to cease fire and start negotiations will be issued by us that very moment.”

On the use of Russia’s frozen assets in the West to support Ukraine, he said that is theft, will remain theft, and will not go unpunished.

As expected, President Zelensky immediately rejected what he called an ultimatum by Putin to surrender more territory. Kyiv will hold peace talks with Russia tomorrow if Moscow pulls out of all Ukrainian territory, he said. In April 2022, Mr. Zelensky had said that his government was prepared to discuss adopting a neutral status as part of a peace deal with Russia, but any such deal would have to be put to a referendum in Ukraine.[v] Whether, “that was then, this is now” remains to be seen.

In brief, Moscow’s and Kyiv’s positions on a future peace deal remain far apart. Thus, the war will continue, like the war in Gaza.


[i] https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/list-of-states-and-organizations-pdf/269687862

[ii] https://www.fdfa.admin.ch/eda/en/fdfa/fdfa/aktuell/dossiers/konferenz-zum-frieden-ukraine/Summit-on-Peace-in-ukraine-joint-communique-on-a-peace-framework.html

[iii] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/06/13/bilateral-security-agreement-between-the-united-states-of-america-and-ukraine/

[iv] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/74285

[v] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60901024

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