Bloomberg Balance of Power : A mercenary group led by a one-time ally of President Vladimir Putin marched his forces toward Moscow demanding the removal of the country’s top military commanders

 

It’s been an extraordinary 24 hours in Russia. A mercenary group led by a one-time ally of President Vladimir Putin marched his forces toward Moscow demanding the removal of the country’s top military commanders, only to abruptly reverse just shy of the capital. Yevgeny Prigozhin has a long history with Putin. An ex-convict, he’s known as Putin’s chef for his catering contracts with the Kremlin, and has been running a mercenary operation in various countries at the behest of the Russian leader. But in recent months he’s become a very public critic of Putin’s war in Ukraine — not the fact he invaded, but because, according to Prigozhin, a poorly resourced and disorganized military has failed to deliver on the ground. He vocally blamed Russia’s top army chiefs, particularly Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Putin’s ally. Things came to head in dramatic fashion overnight with Prigozhin sweeping with his men from the south toward Moscow, meeting little resistance. Roadblocks were set up in the capital, the military was out on the streets and people were told to stay home. And yet just hours from the capital, he announced he was turning around. It’s unclear if this is a proper withdrawal or a temporary move. It’s also unclear where it leaves both Prigozhin and Putin. It has been a very public display of discontent with the leadership in Russia, and risked at least temporarily setting off a broader uprising. Prigozhin has directly challenged Putin with his claims and is unlikely to stop his push for military change. That raises big questions about the future for Russia’s war in Ukraine. And it may leave Putin weaker, right as he starts the clock for re-election in 2024. — Rosalind Mathieson

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What Is Russia’s Wagner Group? Tension between Prigozhin and Russia’s defense establishment exploded in dramatic fashion, with the mercenary chief saying Shoigu had orchestrated a missile attack that killed “huge” numbers of his fighters. Sybilla Gross lays out the origins of the rebellion that has become the biggest test of Putin’s authority since he invaded Ukraine.  CLICK TO WATCH: Russia set up roadblocks and checkpoints around Moscow. A ‘Good Day’ for Ukraine. However the struggle for power in Russia plays out, officials in Kyiv say they’re sure of one thing: it benefits Ukraine. The chaos in Russia comes three weeks into a Ukrainian counteroffensive. But the next 24 to 48 hours in Russia will be decisive and Ukraine is not rushing into any response, said Mykhailo Podolyak, an aide to President Volodymr Zelenskiy. Prigozhin holds a Russian national flag in Bakhmut, Ukraine, on May 21. Source: Prigozhin Press Service/AP Photo Key nations in Europe and the US adopted a watching brief on the Russian turmoil. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with his counterparts from Group of Seven nations and NATO states. The German government was taken by surprise by the rapid escalation in Russia, according to officials there, with the administration still operating until recently on the presumption that Prigozhin was acting on behalf of Putin. Elsewhere, Iran described the events in Russia as “an internal affair,” with the foreign ministry adding the Islamic Republic “supports the rule of law” in Russia. Another Putin ally, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, denounced Wagner and claimed he’d sent Chechen fighters near Prigozhin's location in Russia. The Kremlin said Putin spoke with Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Turkish leader offered his “full support” for the response to the rebellion. Bags of cash. Mercenaries killed in Ukraine are inadvertently helping stoke a new cash boom back in Russia. Money paid in compensation for their deaths — which adds up to 5 million rubles ($60,000) per person, on top of any uncollected wages — usually comes stuffed in bags. Prigozhin today in Rostov-on-Don, Russia. Source: Prigozhin Press Service/AP Photo