What Is Russia Doing in the Arctic Circle? David Kirichenko

 What Is Russia Doing in the Arctic Circle?

David  Kirichenko 

At sea, the Bear Gap, a crucial maritime corridor near Svalbard, Norway, is a potential chokepoint that Russia could use to block NATO naval reinforcements in a future conflict. As Russia expands its military footprint in the Arctic, NATO should consider collaborating with Ukraine to adapt its sea drone technology, which has already proven effective in the Black Sea, for Arctic conditions. 

Lyuba Shipovich, CEO of Dignitas and the Victory Drones project, said that while a Spiderweb-like operation, such as using sea drones to strike Russia’s port of Murmansk from Arctic waters, is technically feasible, provided the drones are adapted to cold conditions and have communication support like Starlink. However, Shipovich also emphasized the legal challenges associated with such an operation.

Ukraine, she stressed, adheres to international law and would not conduct such an operation without proper legal grounds. However, if a country like Denmark permitted Ukraine to use its territorial waters, a mission of that nature could be carried out within the framework of the law.

Heorhii Volkov, commander of the drone unit Yasni Ochi (“Clear Eyes”) from the 13th Khartiia Brigade, also believes that a complex strike operation in the Arctic region could be achievable. While he acknowledges the logistical complexity, he emphasizes that success hinges on an in-depth study of the enemy’s tactics and careful intelligence gathering. By identifying vulnerabilities, operations can be tailored effectively, with the necessary drone technology adapted to suit the mission’s demands as needed.

Similarly, the GIUK (Greenland–Iceland–United Kingdom) gap is an essential naval chokepoint for monitoring and containing Russia’s Northern Fleet. The GIUK gap also hosts crucial subsea fiber‑optic cables that Russian submarines have been linked to tapping or potentially cutting. 

Ukrainian intelligence has also warned that Russia is using scientific cover to prepare a military and resource-driven expansion in the Arctic. According to the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), Moscow is leveraging its Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute to conduct dual-use expeditions, collecting data on ice, wind, and ocean patterns to support both commercial exploitation and fleet movements. The Kremlin is installing satellite and communications infrastructure to support its Northern Fleet and future drone operations in the region.

What Are NATO Countries Doing in the Arctic?

Finland, now a NATO member, is already preparing for what comes after Ukraine. Satellite images show Moscow expanding infrastructure near the Finnish border, building tent camps, warehouses, and refurbishing airfields. Though troop levels remain low for now, Finnish intelligence officials believe Russia will redeploy thousands of soldiers to its Arctic frontier once the war in Ukraine winds down.

NATO countries are racing to develop drones that can operate in harsh Arctic conditions, as cold, ice, and snow pose serious challenges to drone operations. While Russia and China have already developed and deployed drones suitable for freezing climates, NATO is only just beginning to catch up, with countries like Finland, Canada, and Norway investing in winter-capable models. 

The war in Ukraine has shown how vital drones are for modern warfare, but many of the drones used today don’t hold up in extreme Arctic weather. Smaller drones freeze quickly, whereas only the most expensive models can carry de-icing systems, similar to those found on traditional aircraft. Meanwhile, Russia has made key advances: Zala Aero offers Arctic-ready drones, and the long-range S-70 Okhotnik combat drone, capable of operating in sub-zero conditions, is slated for regional deployment.

The race for military dominance in the Arctic is inextricably linked to the quest for its resources. Melting sea ice is exposing vast reserves of oil, gas, and critical minerals, drawing the attention not only of Moscow and Beijing, but also Washington. It has led to Donald Trump’s obsession with buying Greenland. 

But the move backfired diplomatically, pushing many Greenlanders to distance themselves from the US. Greenland’s foreign minister recently signaled interest in deepening ties with China, including the possibility of a free trade agreement.

Buying Greenland Would Give America More Access to the Arctic

Greenland’s strategic value extends beyond its location; it’s also rich in untapped resources. “There are massive assets of natural resources around in Greenland,” said Maria Ackrén, Professor of Political Science at the University of Greenland. However, unlocking that potential presents significant challenges. “There is a lack of infrastructure, which companies have to take into account. They need to build everything from scratch, new roads, harbors, and the like.”

Although Greenland’s new government has shown more willingness to support mineral extraction, foreign investors remain cautious. Arctic mining is expensive, bureaucratically complex, and politically sensitive. 

As Ackrén noted, “Foreign companies are making some risk calculations which might not add up with the potential outcomes they might receive from opening a mine.”

The island is already navigating a growing great power rivalry. “Greenland’s official position is to be open for business to anyone who would like to invest in the country,” Ackrén said. However, this balancing act has become increasingly delicate as Trump-era rhetoric has drawn Greenland closer to Nordic and European partners. At the same time, China has emerged as a significant trading partner, particularly in the seafood sector. 

“The Trump administration has harmed its relationships with all its allies,” Ackrén added. “Even though the US is still a major alliance partner for Denmark and Greenland within NATO, we can see that the alliance might take a new form in the future. In my view, the actual existence of NATO might be in danger.”

NATO and the US can’t afford to alienate allies or delay action in the Arctic. As Russia and China expand their presence, the West must invest in Arctic-ready defenses and rebuild trust with key partners, such as Greenland. 

But perhaps the most effective way to curb Russia’s ambitions in the Arctic is to defeat it in Ukraine. A chastened Russia is far less likely to overestimate its strength in the Arctic or the Baltic. A confident one, on the other hand, may gamble, pushing its luck through conventional aggression or gray-zone tactics, such as cutting undersea cables. 

Either way, failing to act decisively now risks letting Russia’s conflict with the West spread further north.

About the Author: David Kirichenko

David Kirichenko is a freelance journalist and an Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, a London-based think tank. His research focuses on autonomous systems, cyber warfare, irregular warfare, and military strategy. His analyses have been widely published in outlets such as the Atlantic Council, the Center for European Policy Analysis, the Irregular Warfare Center, Military Review, and The Hill, as well as in peer-reviewed journals.

Image Credit: Shutterstock/Nigel Jarvis.

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