UNITED AGAINST NUCLEAR IRAN - EYE ON IRAN December 14, 2024 TOP STORIES Iran Suffers Blow Of ‘Historic Proportions’ With Assad’s Fall | The Wall Street Journal

UNITED AGAINST NUCLEAR IRAN - EYE ON IRAN

December 14, 2024 

TOP STORIES

Iran Suffers Blow Of ‘Historic Proportions’ With Assad’s Fall | The Wall Street Journal

Iran spent decades and billions of dollars building a network of militias and governments that allowed it to exercise political and military influence across the Middle East, and deter foreign attacks on its soil. In a matter of weeks, the pillars of that alliance came crashing down. The departure of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad is the latest strategic catastrophe that will force Iran to rethink decades-old security policies, just as it is also confronting the election of President-elect Donald Trump and his promises of new pressure on Tehran.

Iran Dramatically Accelerating Uranium Enrichment To Near Bomb Grade, IAEA Says | Reuters

Iran is "dramatically" increasing the amount of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% of weapons grade, that it is able to produce, the watchdog's chief Rafael Grossi told Reuters in an interview. The move is certain to cause even greater alarm in Western capitals already arguing that there is no civil justification for Iran's enrichment to that level as no other country has done so without producing nuclear bombs, which Iran denies pursuing. Iran already has enough material enriched to up to 60%, its most highly enriched stock, for four nuclear weapons in principle if it enriched it further, according to an IAEA yardstick. It has enough for more at lower enrichment levels.

Iran In Direct Contact With Groups In Syria's New Leadership, Iranian Official Says | Reuters

Iran has opened a direct line of communication with rebels in Syria's new leadership since its ally Bashar al-Assad was ousted, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday, in an attempt to "prevent a hostile trajectory" between the countries. The lightning advance of a militia alliance spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, marked one of the biggest turning points for the Middle East in generations. Assad's fall as president removed a bastion from which Iran and Russia exercised influence across the Arab world. Hours after Assad's fall, Iran said it expected relations with Damascus to continue based on the two countries' "far-sighted and wise approach" and called for the establishment of an inclusive government representing all segments of Syrian society. There is little doubt about Tehran's concern about how the change of power in Damascus will affect Iran's influence in Syria, the lynchpin of its regional clout.

UANI IN THE NEWS

Ukrainian Intelligence Unveils Data On 238 Tankers Of Russia's 'Shadow Fleet' | Mena FN

The Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) has launched a new section on Russia's "shadow fleet" on the War & Sanctions portal, unveiling data on the activities of 238 vessels that help Russia and Iran export sanctioned oil... Some vessels have been identified by Greenpeace as part of a shadow fleet that endangers ecosystems in the Baltic Sea by transporting Russian oil globally. Others, according to the American human rights group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), have been repurposed from carrying Iranian oil to now shipping Russian oil.

Why Is Israel Attacking Syria? | The Telegraph

Israel has launched more than 350 air and naval strikes against Bashar al-Assad’s military since he was toppled on Sunday, destroying about 80 per cent of Syria’s military capabilities... Dror Doron, a senior adviser at United Against Nuclear Iran and a former Israeli government senior analyst, told The Telegraph that Israel was implementing “lessons” from the collapse of Libya. He said this included preventing heavy arms from falling into the hands of groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which he described as “extremely unpredictable”.

Commentary: What Assad Regime Collapse In Syria Means For Russia And Iran | CNA

No doubt policymakers in Tehran and Moscow are asking who lost Syria. In a tectonic rewrite of the Middle East’s geopolitical map, Bashar al-Assad was ousted on Sunday (Dec 8) after 24 years as president, leaving his principal backers struggling to limit their losses... Kasra Aarabi, a Washington-based anti-Iranian activist, quoted a younger IRGC member as saying: “We zealous youth will not forget the cowardice of the decision-makers.”

US Senators Tell Treasury To Ratchet Up Iran Sanctions | Lloyd’s List

THE US has blocked a whopping 9m dwt of Iran-trading tankers since October, the fastest pace since the reimposition of Iran oil sanctions under the Trump administration in 2018… When New York-based advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran started tracking Iran-trading tankers in November 2020, it estimated about 70 vessels were active in the trade. Four years later, its “Ghost Armada” list has swelled to over 470 tankers and gas carriers. The senators requested that the Treasury Department submit an assessment of “all vessels listed by UANI in its Tanker Tracker and its Ghost Armada to determine whether they meet the criteria for sanctions”. Iranian oil kept flowing strongly in November. Preliminary figures from UANI show Tehran exported almost 1.6m barrels per day last month, about its average pace for the year to date.

Iran Blames Israel, US For Assad’s Fall In Syria | i24 News

UANI Policy Director Jason Brodsky joins Natasha to discuss Iran blaming Israel and the US for the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria – and how significant of a blow Israel has landed on the Iranian axis.

Internal Crisis Threatens Iranian Regime As Officials Angrily Blame Each Other For Collapse Of Syrian Regime | All Israel News

The collapse of the Syrian Assad regime, once a main pillar of support for Iran’s regional policy, has given rise to mutual recriminations that threaten the internal stability of the regime just as it struggles to cope with one the most challenging periods of its existence, according to recent reports... The internal fault lines within the IRGC center on a conflict between the older, veteran commanders and young radicals, according to Kasra Aarabi, director of IRGC Research at the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) think tank.

Israel Admits Destroying Assad’s Navy As It Creates ‘Sterile Defence Zone’ | The Telegraph

Israel said it had destroyed Syria’s naval fleet on Tuesday as troops launched the first raids into the country’s territory. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) initially denied reports its tanks had advanced six miles into Syrian territory after a widespread bombing campaign that officials say wiped out the Assad regime’s military arsenal… Dror Doron, senior advisor at United Against Nuclear Iran and former senior analyst in the office of the prime minister of Israel, told The Telegraph that Israel would not gain anything from sending troops to the Syrian capital. “There is no way Israel would advance to Damascus. It would be counterproductive. There is an active effort by Hezbollah to portray what’s happening in Syria as an Israeli conspiracy,” Mr Doron said.

Assad Regime's Collapse Is A Devastating Defeat For Iran | NBC News

The swift collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime represents a devastating defeat for Iran, the latest in a string of setbacks that have punctured long held assumptions in the West about Tehran’s military prowess... Those incorrect assumptions about Iran “shaped and indeed constrained regional and U.S. policy on Iran,” said Norman Roule, former senior U.S. intelligence official and senior adviser to United Against Nuclear Iran, a nonprofit that focuses on combating threats posed by Iran.

Syria’s Suddenly Permissive Airspace Prompts Flurry Of Foreign Airstrikes | The War Zone

The United States and Israel are capitalizing on the power vacuum left by the demise of the Assad regime in Syria... “Fault lines are emerging in Iran’s [Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp] IRGC over the handling of Syria,” Kasra Aarabi, Director of IRGC Research at the United Against Nuclear Iran (UNI) think tank, argued on Twitter. “Younger radicals are enraged at the ‘abandonment. This will cause [Iran’s supreme leader Ali Hosseini] Khamenei major problems.”

The Week In Charts: Falsely Flagged Tanker Transits English Channel | No Container Rate Upside Yet From Strike Prep | Geopolitical Risk Biggest Threat To Shipping | Lloyd’s List

… Iranian oil keeps flowing ahead of expected return to ‘maximum pressure.’ According to preliminary figures from New York-based advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran, Tehran exported almost 1.6m barrels per day in November, about its average pace for the year to date, wrote senior maritime reporter Tomer Raanan. Should Iran maintain that pace in December, it would finish the year at about 10% above the 1.45m bpd it averaged in 2023. Keeping Iran’s oil flowing around the restrictions is the fleet servicing sanctioned trades, which has swelled to about 470 tankers and liquefied petroleum gas carriers, according to UANI’s latest tally.

Iran Says Assad ‘Never Asked’ For Help Against Rebels | i24 News

Fall of Assad reveals massive intelligence failure by Iran, but Tehran's influence in Syria may not be over. “There is a real risk of Iran trying to cultivate relations with HTS or other groups, Sunni variety, in Syria to protect its interests,” UANI Policy Director Jason Brodsky says.

U.S.’ Dueling Stance On Syria Crisis | WION

Joe Biden calls for Assad to be ‘held accountable.’ Trump’s spy pick faces scrutiny for remarks on Assad in 2017. Susan Tehrani joined by Jack Roush, Research Associate, UANI, for perspective.

Hope And Fear After The Fall Of Al-Assad | Kvartal IDAG

Kvartal Idag is the daily news podcast for you who think for yourself. The most important from Sweden and the world, Monday-Thursday every week. The presenters are Magnus Thorén, Jörgen Huitfeldt and Staffan Dopping.

This Is Iran’s Annus Horribilis | UANI Policy Director Jason Brodsky For The Spectator

Hezbollah’s capabilities and decapitated its leadership. Hamas has been left decimated in Gaza. The regime of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has collapsed. Intact for now are the Shiite militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. Such a situation is not only a product of geopolitical trends but also an indictment of the leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force. This will necessitate a reorienting of Iranian strategy. 2024 has been Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s annus horribilis. Tehran began this year in a stronger regional position, with Israel seemingly entrapped in an endless conflict with Hamas in Gaza leading to its growing international isolation and Iran’s increasing integration. But then events took a turn for the worse for Khamenei beginning in January, when Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy political leader for Hamas and a key interlocutor with Tehran, was killed by Israel.

What The Fall Of Assad Means For Israel And The Region | UANI Senior Advisor Dror Doron For The Jewish Independent

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria marks a historical and unexpected turn of events in what seems to be yet another chapter in the never-ending surprises produced in the Middle East. The fact the long, brutal tyranny of 54 years led by the Assad family was toppled in a 12-day attack by the rebels, five years after all analysis considered the high-intensity civil war in Syria to be won by Assad and his Russian and Iranian supporters, is no less than amazing. The rebel group that led the attack, and which by now is in control of the capital Damascus, is a radical Islamist group affiliated with Al-Qaeda. The group is called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, commonly referred to as HTS, which in Arabic means "the Levant Liberation Committee". The group was formally established in 2017 as an umbrella organization uniting several radical Islamist groups that operated separately against the Syrian regime since the beginning of the civil war in 2011.

The Threats Posed By The Global Shadow Fleet—And How To Stop It | Atlantic Council

On March 2, 2024, the crude-oil carrier Andromeda Star collided with the Bulgarian-flagged cargo ship Peace in the treacherous waters between Denmark and Sweden. More precisely, the two ships collided between the Danish coastal town of Amager and the small island of Saltholm, which is located in the Øresund (the Sound) between Sweden and Denmark.1 Because the tanker was en route to the Russian port of Primorsk to load Russian Urals crude, she wasn’t carrying the cargo of oil she would have been carrying had she been traveling in the other direction.2 Had the collision occurred then, the oil would likely have leaked, causing considerable environmental harm in Danish waters… The monitoring was conducted by companies in the shipping industry, by navies and coast guards, and by nongovernmental organizations like United Against a Nuclear Iran.

Crapo, Scott, Banking Republicans Press Biden Administration On Sanctions Enforcement On Iran’s Oil Sector | Daily Fly

U.S. Senator Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) joined Tim Scott (R-South Carolina) and Senate Banking Republicans in raising concerns with the delayed implementation and enforcement of sanctions on Iran’s oil sector.  In a letter to U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen, Crapo, Scott and colleagues urged the Treasury Department to deploy all available sanctions enforcement tools to monitor and sanction illicit oil transactions involving Iran and to provide detailed information regarding the administration’s efforts to do so... In closing, the letter demands the following information from the Treasury Department no later than December 20, 2024: An assessment of all vessels listed by United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) in its Tanker Tracker and its Ghost Armada to determine whether they meet the criteria for sanctions under E.O. 13902 as entities operating in Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical sectors.  

Iran’s Fragile Empire Is Crumbling – Syrian Rebels’ Blitz On Putin & Assad Is Next Domino To Fall, Says Ex-Ambassador | The Sun

The Ayatollah's allies Vladimir Putin and Bashar al-Assad could be booted out of the country by quickly advancing militants Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. It's the latest blunder from the Iranians after pals Hamas and Hezbollah were both hammered by Israel following the October 7 terror attack. Ambassador Mark Wallace, CEO of United Against Nuclear Iran, said Iran is now fighting for its survival. The former US representative to the UN said Ayatollah Ali Khamenei only has a "tenuous" hold on power. Iran has used its proxy forces as a way to establish its dominance in the region by sowing conflict in countries and having militants seize land.

How Oct 7 Led To The Fall Of Syria – And The Retreat Of Iran | The Telegraph

They must be cursing the memory of Yahya Sinwar in Tehran’s corridors of power... Although fond of making a deal, particularly one he could represent as a swift foreign policy triumph, there are plenty of Iran hawks in his cabinet, said Daniel Roth, research director at United Against Nuclear Iran, an advocacy group headed by Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida. “Many of Trump’s cabinet picks are very vocal in their anti-regime outlook,” he said. “You have people like Marco Rubio [secretary of state designate] who has been on the record many times about the real dangers of Iran. So ultimately I think Trump is going to go pretty hard on Iran.”

Israel Issued Urgent Warning Over Hezbollah Ceasefire - 'It's Not 2006 Anymore' | Express

The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah fighters has tenuously held since it was signed on November 27, despite Israeli forces launching several drone and artillery strikes in Lebanon... Mark Wallace, who is also CEO of United Against Nuclear Iran, said Hezbollah had been “forced into” the uneasy ceasefire by military pressure from Israel but the Iran-backed militant group was now in a position to “rebuild and rearm”. “There have been multiple ceasefire violations by Hezbollah, which has forced Israel into implementing [it] by military force,” Mr Wallace told Express.co.uk

SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS

Europeans Tell UN Ready To 'Snap Back' Iran Sanctions If Needed | Reuters

Britain, France and Germany have told the United Nations Security Council that they are ready - if necessary - to trigger a so-called "snap back" of all international sanctions on Iran to prevent the country from acquiring a nuclear weapon. They will lose the ability to take such action on Oct. 18 next year when a 2015 U.N. resolution expires. The resolution enshrines Iran's deal with Britain, Germany, France, the United States, Russia and China that lifted sanctions on Tehran in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear program.

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS & NEGOTIATIONS

Trump Team Weighs Options, Including Airstrikes, To Stop Iran’s Nuclear Program | The Wall Street Journal

President-elect Donald Trump is weighing options for stopping Iran from being able to build a nuclear weapon, including the possibility of preventive airstrikes, a move that would break with the longstanding policy of containing Tehran with diplomacy and sanctions. The military-strike option against nuclear facilities is now under more serious review by some members of his transition team, who are weighing the fall of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad—Tehran’s ally—in Syria, the future of U.S. troops in the region, and Israel’s decimation of regime proxy militias Hezbollah and Hamas. Iran’s weakened regional position and recent revelations of Tehran’s burgeoning nuclear work have turbocharged sensitive internal discussions, transition officials said. All deliberation on the issue, however, remains in the early stages.

Exclusive: Trump Considers Ex-Intelligence Chief Richard Grenell For Iran Position, Sources Say | Reuters

President-elect Donald Trump is now considering tapping Richard Grenell, his former intelligence chief, to be a special envoy for Iran, according to two people familiar with the transition plans. "He's definitely in the running," said a person familiar with transition deliberations, who asked not to be identified. No final decisions on either personnel or strategy on Iran have been made official yet by Trump, including whether to slap fresh sanctions on the country, pursue diplomacy or both in order to halt their nuclear program. Neither Trump's team nor Grenell responded to requests for comment. Trump's plans for the role have not previously been reported.

MILITARY/INTELLIGENCE MATTERS & PROXY WARS

Military Officials: Israel Preparing For Potential Strikes Against Iran Nuclear Facilities | The Times Of Israel

The Israeli Air Force is continuing its readiness and preparations for potential strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities, following the weakening of Tehran’s proxy groups in the Middle East and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Israeli military officials. The military believes that an isolated Iran may push further with its nuclear program. Due to the dramatic changes in the Middle East, especially the fall of Assad which allowed the IAF to take out the vast majority of Syria’s air defenses, the Israeli military believes there is now an opportunity to strike Iran’s nuclear sites.

Iran Begins To Evacuate Military Officials And Personnel From Syria | The New York Times

Iran began to evacuate its military commanders and personnel from Syria on Friday, according to regional officials and three Iranian officials, in a sign of Iran’s inability to help keep President Bashar al-Assad in power as he faces a resurgent rebel offensive. Among those evacuated to neighboring Iraq and Lebanon were top commanders of Iran’s powerful Quds Forces, the external branch of the Revolutionary Guards Corps, the officials said. The move signaled a remarkable turn for Mr. al-Assad, whose government Iran has backed throughout Syria’s 13-year civil war, and for Iran, which has used Syria as a key route to supply weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Israeli Jews Who Spied For Iran In Biggest Infiltration In Decades | Reuters

Israel's arrest of almost 30 mostly Jewish citizens who allegedly spied for Iran in nine covert cells has caused alarm in the country and points to Tehran's biggest effort in decades to infiltrate its arch foe, four Israeli security sources said. Among the unfulfilled goals of the alleged cells was the assassination of an Israeli nuclear scientist and former military officials, while one group gathered information on military bases and air defences, security service Shin Bet has said. Last week, the agency and Israel's police said a father and son team had passed on details of Israeli force movements including in the Golan Heights where they lived. The arrests follow repeated efforts by Iranian intelligence operatives over the past two years to recruit ordinary Israelis to gather intelligence and carry out attacks in exchange for money, the four serving and former military and security officials said.

IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS

Assad’s Fall Jolts Iran’s Increasingly Vulnerable Leadership | Bloomberg

The tanker carrying oil from Iran had been sailing to Syria with critical supplies when it was forced into a U-turn just before entering the Suez Canal. Word of President Bashar al-Assad’s downfall had reached the vessel, with the cargo’s sender reduced from a powerful, longtime sponsor of his regime to a mere spectator of its demise. In a matter of days, the Islamic Republic had lost one the last men standing in its so-called Axis of Resistance, leaving its foreign policy effectively in tatters. Officials in Tehran this week sought to play down the significance, saying they had seen it coming and blaming Assad for intransigence. But as the world weighs the consequences of Assad’s ouster and its impact on Middle East dynamics, Iran is left scrambling to figure out how to respond with questions over the vulnerability of its leadership.

Iran’s Armed Forces ‘At War With Themselves’ Over Fall Of Assad | The Telegraph

A furious blame game is unfolding among Iran’s armed forces over the fall of Bashar al-Assad, The Telegraph has learned. Officials of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said commanders of the elite military force were blaming each other “in angry terms” for the collapse of Assad’s regime and the loss of Iranian influence in the region. “The atmosphere is like something between almost punching each other, punching the walls, yelling at each other and kicking rubbish bins. They are blaming each other, and no one is taking responsibility,” one official from Tehran told The Telegraph. “No one ever imagined seeing Assad fleeing, as the focus for 10 years had been only on keeping him in power. And it was not because we were in love with him, it was because we wanted to maintain proximity to Israel and Hezbollah.”

RUSSIA, SYRIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN

The Syrian Upheaval Has Iranian Leaders Reeling, Too | The New York Times

In the days since the abrupt and unexpected obliteration of Iran as a dominant presence in Syria, the government has faced a fierce public backlash over the billions of dollars spent and the Iranian blood shed to back the Assad regime. The criticism has come from unexpected corners, including conservatives, and is flowing freely on television channels and talk shows, and in social media posts and virtual town halls attended by thousands of Iranians. It also appears on the front pages of newspapers every day. One former lawmaker, Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, said in a social media post that Iranians should rejoice at the fall of Iran’s longstanding ally, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria. “No one will be able to waste Iran’s dollars for maintaining a spider web any more,” he said

Israel Says Iran Has Itself To Blame For Assad’s Fall In Syria | Barron’s

Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz rebuffed on Wednesday Iranian accusation of a US-Israeli "plot" to oust Syria's Bashar al-Assad, saying Tehran has itself to blame for the fall of its ally. Katz, on a tour of the Jordanian border with military commanders, accused arch rival Iran of trying to establish an "eastern front" against Israel in the neighbouring kingdom, and vowed to prevent it. Earlier on Wednesday, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Assad's ouster this week by Islamist-led rebels "is the product of a joint US-Israeli plot", also blaming another unnamed "neighbouring state of Syria". Katz, according to a statement from his office, said that Khamenei "should blame himself" and stop financing armed groups "in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza to build the octopus arms he leads in an attempt to defeat the State of Israel".

Tehran Says 4,000 Iranians Returned From Syria Since Assad's Fall | Barron’s

Tehran said Tuesday it had brought home 4,000 Iranian citizens from Syria following the ouster of its ally Bashar al-Assad as rebels took over Damascus. "Over the past three days, 4,000 Iranian citizens were returned to Iran," Fatemeh Mohajerani, the spokeswoman for Iran's government, said at a press conference in the capital. She added that Iran would keep up its efforts "until the departure of the last Iranian" in Syria. Around 10,000 Iranian citizens had been living in Syria in recent years, according to official figures. Iran's Revolutionary Guards sent "military advisers" to Syria to help Assad during the civil war that broke out in 2011. But Ahmad Naderi, a member of the Islamic parliament presidium, said on Tuesday that "there are no Iranian forces in Syria", citing a briefing by Guards' chief Hossein Salami.

OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Iran's Further Escalation Of Its Nuclear Programme: Joint Statement By France, Germany And The UK | UK Government

Statement by the governments of France, Germany and the United Kingdom: “We, the governments of France, Germany and the United Kingdom, condemn Iran’s latest steps, as reported by the IAEA, to expand its nuclear programme to significantly increase the rate of production of uranium enriched up to 60% at the underground Fordow facility. We are also extremely concerned to learn that Iran has increased the number of centrifuges in use and started preparations to install additional enrichment infrastructure, further increasing Iran’s enrichment capacity.”