Why Turkey loved the fall of Assad
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Dear Önder,
Happy Wednesday. Let’s get right to it:
4 reasons Turkey’s president was thrilled to see Assad fall
How far will Israel go in Syria?
Brazil’s president has emergency brain surgery
Serbia’s leader faces protesters with a weird flex
Tehran closes schools over… air pollution
Plus: We reveal GZERO’s No. 6 and No. 5 Political Game Changers of 2024.
Enjoy!
– The Daily crew
Four reasons why Turkey is excited about the fall of Assad.
No one is sure what the end of the Assad regime in Syria will bring, but few in the region are happier about it than Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. For years, Erdogan, whose Islamist AKP party has governed Turkey since 2003, had sought the ouster of Assad, a secular despot backed by Shia Iran, a regional rival.
In the end, the jihadist militants of Hayat Tahrir el-Sham, or HTS, a group supported in part by Turkey, led the campaign that ended the 54-year reign of the Assads.
But why was Erdogan in particular so interested in seeing that happen?
Here are four big reasons:
The refugee problem. Nearly 4 million Syrian refugees have arrived in Turkey since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011. Ankara has gotten some 9 billion Euros from the EU to support them and keep them from traveling onward to Europe, but their presence in Turkey has generated a social backlash. With Assad out of power, Erdogan sees an opportunity to send them home.
The regional power play. The Sunni Islamist government of Erdogan has always seen Shia revolutionary Iran as a regional rival. Assad, supported by Tehran, was the keystone of Iran’s arc of regional power, enabling Tehran to project power via proxy groups into neighboring Lebanon, Iraq, and the Palestinian territories. With that keystone removed, the arc has fallen, and now a Turkey-friendly Sunni Islamist group is in a position to pick up the pieces in Syria. That, says Emre Peker, lead Turkey analyst at Eurasia Group, gives Ankara a chance to “engage in a massive way in the reconstruction of Syria and expand influence and clout throughout the region.”
The Kurdish complication. For decades, Ankara has faced separatist militancy from Kurdish groups based in southeastern Turkey and has been hostile to Syrian Kurdish groups that have carved out autonomous zones of their own during the Syrian civil war. The post-Assad uncertainty has provided an opportunity for Erdogan to use local proxies to move more forcefully against the Syrian Kurds. Still, he will have to avoid a spat with the US, which has backed Syrian Kurds as proxies in the fight against the Islamic State. Incoming US President Donald Trump has called for “staying out of” Syria, which Erdogan would welcome, but it remains to be seen whether that plays out.
And lastly, the domestic angle. Turkey is in the grip of a huge cost-of-living crisis, with inflation near 50%. “At a time when everyone is upset about inflation,” says Peker, “the Syria situation is a godsend because now Erdogan can strut his stuff and be the global leader he always wants to be, and people will love him for it in Turkey.”
What could go wrong? Lots. Much of the upside for Erdogan depends on HTS being able to establish order, bring rivals and competing factions to heel, and above all, shape a society that most Syrians will want to live in – or go back to.
But if minority groups feel threatened by HTS rule, there could be a fresh exodus of refugees. Even worse, if HTS’s attempt to hold power collapses altogether, the country could plunge back into chaos and open civil war altogether.
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What We’re Watching: Israel bombs Syria, Lula gets emergency brain surgery, Serbia’s president vows to stay on, Macron tries to break deadlock
Israel strikes Syria, Netanyahu goes to court
Israel has launched over 350 airstrikes this week targeting naval bases, ships, ammunition depots, and weapon facilities across Syria, devastating the Syrian Army’s remaining capabilities, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Israel claims it has destroyed most of Syria’s strategic weapons stockpiles and says the strikes were designed to prevent weapons from falling “into the hands of extremists.” The UN has also raised alarms over the security of chemical weapons stockpiles that are currently unaccounted for.
“If this regime allows Iran to re-establish itself in Syria, or permits the transfer of Iranian weapons or any other weapons to Hezbollah, or if it attacks us … we will exact a heavy price,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned.
The IDF also confirmed that it seized a 155-square-mile buffer zone inside Syria to prevent attacks in the aftermath of Assad’s ouster. Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt have all condemned Israel’s actions while the US and UK support them, with UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy saying “there are legitimate security concerns for Israel, particularly in the context of a country that has housed ISIS, and al-Qaida.”
Back in Tel Aviv, Netanyahu took the stand on Tuesday at his corruption trial. He’s facing charges of fraud, bribery, and breach of trust that will demand six hours a day of testimony, three days a week for several weeks, raising questions about Bibi’s ability to run the country. Netanyahu called the charges “an ocean of absurdness,” while protesters outside labeled him a “Crime Minister.” Verdicts are not expected before 2026 and could be appealed to the Supreme Court. If convicted, the 75-year-old Netanyahu could face several years in prison.
Brazil’s Lula goes under the knife. Is he healthy enough to run again?
On Tuesday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva underwent a successful craniotomy in Sao Paolo after complaining of a severe headache. The 79-year-old leader was diagnosed with an intracranial hemorrhage — basically, bleeding in the brain — linked to a fall he suffered in October. He is said to be recovering well and is expected to be able to return to work next week — but the health scare is opening questions about his political future.
Can Lula keep a healthy image? On the campaign trail, he often joked that he had the energy of a 30-year-old, but his vitality will now loom large in public discourse. Running Latin America’s largest country is a stressful, 24/7 job, and with elections looming in 2026, the politicos in Brasilia may start hearing echoes of Joe Biden.
Lula’s approval ratings are considerably higher than Biden’s were during the US campaign — Bloomberg has him at 47% approval — but in the anti-establishment environment that has dominated elections in 2024, the old warhorse might do better out to pasture. That said, most presidents don’t get elected without a healthy ego, and no one expects Lula to see himself out.
Who could step in? If Lula should experience further health problems that lead him to step down before the end of his term, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin would be his constitutional successor, but he's not a member of Lula's party or popular with his base. Longer term, we’re watching Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, a close ally of Lula’s who is rumored to be the president’s favorite for a running mate in 2026.
Serbian president name-checks Assad, vows not to flee amid protests
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić on Tuesday said he would not flee in the face of demonstrations against his administration. “If they think I’m Assad, and that I’ll run away somewhere, I will not,” he said. Comparing oneself to the brutal Syrian ex-strongman wasn’t great PR – though in fairness, no one is accusing Vučić of gassing children or torturing civilians like Assad – but many Serbians are protesting persistent corruption in Belgrade.
The most recent wave of unrest started with a roof collapse at a train station that killed 15 people in the city of Novi Sad on Nov. 1. Opposition leaders seized on the tragedy to accuse Vučić’s ruling coalition of nepotism and graft that led to corners being cut on public construction projects, leaving them dangerously shoddy. The station in Novi Sad had been renovated as part of a wide deal with Chinese state companies to upgrade Serbian infrastructure.
Every Friday, protesters now blockade streets in Belgrade, Novi Sad, and other major cities, some holding signs accusing Vučić of corruption and portraying him with blood on his hands, and thousands turned out to mark the one-month anniversary of the collapse. Police have fired tear gas at demonstrators, and pro-government groups have attempted to escalate peaceful protests.
Will Vučić stick to his word? Probably. He’s weathered prolonged popular unrest before, including just last year. More than five months of demonstrations following a series of mass shootings managed to push out a few underlings, but not Vučić. We’re watching for a sacrificial lamb.
Macron works to end France’s political deadlock
On Tuesday, France’s President Emmanuel Macron hosted a meeting with the leaders of center, center-right, and center-left political parties at the Elysee Palace in a bid to end France’s political crisis by building support for a new prime minister and a 2025 budget. Leaders of the far-right National Rally and hard-left France Unbowed were not invited, a decision that National Rally head Jordan Bardella says demonstrated “disrespect and a lack of elegance.” Those who did attend the meeting told reporters that Macron hopes to nominate a new prime minister “within 48 hours.”
France finds itself unable to form a government and pass a budget because Macron called an election for July that empowered both right- and left-wing hardliners with no political bloc winning a majority. France has no prime minister at the moment because these hardliners ousted Michel Barnier – who held his post for just 90 days – in a no-confidence vote. That’s the shortest tenure for any PM in the history of France’s Fifth Republic, which began in 1958.
For now, France’s Green Party says it won’t join a “national interest” government. The Socialists insist they will only support a left-wing prime minister, a non-starter for conservatives.
GZERO’s No. 6 2024 Game Changer: Russia’s ruthless leader
Who is he? Vladimir Putin, the ex-KGB agent who has ruled Russia without interruption since the turn of the millennium, hardly needs an introduction – you know the name. But even after nearly a quarter century in power, he continues to flip scripts year in and year out, and 2024 was no different.
What did he accomplish in 2024? As recently as a year ago, Ukraine and its Western backers still held out hope that Kyiv’s forces might push back the Russian invaders who have laid waste to so much of the country since the 2022 invasion. Since then, Putin has – slowly, cynically, but successfully – shown otherwise.
Today, Russian forces are grinding their way westward in the Donbas while Ukraine suffers shortages of manpower. Kyiv’s bid to divert Russian attention from Eastern Ukraine by invading a small corner of Russia itself in August hasn’t worked out – Putin didn’t take the bait, instead calling in North Korean troops to help repel the Ukrainian incursion.
Meanwhile, US President-elect Donald Trump has questioned support for Ukraine and pledged to end the war “in 24 hours.”
How has Putin changed the game? By altering perceptions of what’s possible. “In 2025, Ukrainian society will be reassessing their all-or-nothing view of victory,” says Tim Mak, editor of “The Counteroffensive” in Kyiv. “As a democratic country, Ukrainians are increasingly expressing a willingness to negotiate -- and a fear that continuing the war could lead to frontline disaster due to manpower shortages.”
What’s next for 2025? Not everything is roses for Putin these days. His heavily sanctioned economy grows only because of massive military spending. Inflation is high. The population continues to shrink, as birth rates are low and hundreds of thousands of talented young people have left in opposition to the war. Russian casualties in Ukraine now dwarf those of the late Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Globally, Moscow is increasingly the junior partner to a rising China, and the Kremlin just lost Syria, its most important ally in the Middle East.
But heading into 2025, Putin has set himself up to negotiate over Ukraine, and potentially over other issues, from a position of greater strength than many had believed, or hoped, just a year ago.
GZERO’s No. 5 2024 Game Changer: The Syrian rebel who reshaped the region
Who is he? The 42-year-old leader of the Syrian jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, al-Golani, born Ahmed Hussein Al-Shara, grew up in a middle-class Syrian family. He went to Iraq in 2003 to fight with al-Qaida against the US occupation, taking his nom de guerre “al-Golani” to honor relatives displaced from the Golan Heights, an area of Syria that Israel has occupied since 1967.
After the Syrian civil war began in 2011, al-Golani founded the anti-Assad jihadist Nusra Front group, which later rebranded as HTS.
In recent years, as he established control over northwestern Syria, al-Golani has sought to distance himself from global jihad and present himself as a statesman interested in stabilizing Syria.
What did he accomplish in 2024? In early December, HTS led a military campaign that surged across the country, capturing key cities within days. When the Syrian regime’s longtime backers in Russia and Iran failed to send more support to Bashar Assad, the game was up. In little more than a week, al-Golani’s forces had toppled the 54-year-old House of Assad.
How has he changed the game? The collapse of the famously despotic Assad regime has sent shockwaves through the region. Syria, for decades a bulwark of expanding regional power for Shia Iran, as well as Russia, is now under the nominal control of HTS, a Sunni group with links to Turkey, a country politically at odds with most major Arab powers. Israel is watching warily and has already struck at Syrian arms depots to prevent them from falling into the hands of anti-Zionist groups. Donald Trump wants the US to “stay out of it,” but he’ll inherit the nearly 1,000 US troops in Syria fighting Islamic State remnants. Iran and Russia, for their part, can hardly be expected to simply fade away.
What’s next for 2025? Al-Golani’s rule is barely a week old. He must establish order in a fractious country wrecked by more than a decade of brutal civil war. Can he? And will his vision of Syria allow the country’s sectarian minorities to live in peace and dignity? Is there a world where the 7 million Syrian refugees who have gone to Turkey and Europe since 2011 really choose to return?
In some ways, “the collapse of the Assad regime is the Middle East’s most hopeful moment in over a decade,” says Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC. “But it carries within it the seeds of further communal and regional conflicts that could persist for a decade to come.”
What we know for sure is that al-Golani’s forces have already smashed decades-old assumptions about the balance of geopolitical, regional, and sectarian power in a volatile region. Whatever comes next begins now.
Hard Numbers: Tehran’s pollution closes schools, Social media swing vote, Militia controls Myanmar-Bangladesh border, Signs of Assad-era torture, Big boost for Ukraine
10 million: Officials in Tehran, a city of more than 10 million people, closed elementary schools and kindergartens on Saturday and Sunday because of dangerous levels of air pollution. On Tuesday, they announced the closure of all governmental offices, universities, and schools on Wednesday and Thursday. Schools will move classes online. In Iran, schools are generally open from Saturday to Wednesday.
45: A new survey found that 45% of “Swing voters” in the US presidential election reported getting most of their news from social media. Just 39% cited local news as their primary source of information, and 38% cited broadcast news.
168: A militia fighting on behalf of the Buddhist Rakhine minority group has driven Myanmar’s army out of its last outpost along the country’s 168-mile border with Bangladesh. This rebel group now claims control of the northern part of Rakhine state, where locals have pushed for independence.
40: The HTS rebels who now control Syria’s government say their search of a hospital morgue has discovered 40 bodies that show signs of torture by former dictator Bashar Assad’s security forces. Human rights groups say more than 100,000 people have disappeared since Assad ordered the 2011 crackdown on protests that ignited the country’s civil war.
20 billion: The US confirmed that it has sent $20 billion to Ukraine from seized Russian assets as part of a $50 billion G7 package to make Russia “bear the costs of its illegal war, instead of taxpayers," in the words of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. The US Treasury transferred the $20 billion to a World Bank fund; money handled by the World Bank cannot be used for military purposes. Instead, it is intended to be used for hospitals and emergency services. The move comes weeks before the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, who has said he would cut aid to Ukraine.
This edition of GZERO Daily was produced by Writers Matthew Kendrick, Tasha Kheiriddin, Alex Kliment, and Willis Sparks, and Managing Editor Tracy Moran.
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