3:03 PM (3 hours ago)
to me
GZero Daily NewsletterPresented by RBC Capital Markets
Happy Tuesday. In today’s edition:
Why Syria’s flare-up is so dangerous
France’s PM barrels over a cliff
Romanian court upholds first-round vote
UK liberals get red-pilled on migration
Putin’s wishlist: A new Yalta Agreement?
Plus: No more punch buggies? VW workers strike
– The Daily crew
What We’re Watching: Syria spirals further, France’s Le Pen plays for power, Romanian voters tack to the center, UK PM gets tough on migration, Is a Ukraine deal dead on arrival?, Trump threatens Middle East intervention
Syrian rebels clash with Kurds as Assad’s backers spring into action
In case anyone has forgotten just how complicated Syria’s civil war always was, the recent drama around Aleppo escalated on Monday as the Syrian National Army, a group backed by Turkey, attacked US-backed Kurdish groups near the city.
Meanwhile, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, the formerly al-Qaida-linked Islamist group at the forefront of the recent rebel offensive in Aleppo, has reportedly ordered Kurdish militias to leave the area altogether and go eastward to Rojava, a de facto autonomous Kurdish area in northeastern Syria.
Aren’t the Kurds against the Assad regime, too? Yes, but that’s not the beef. HTS works with the Turkish proxies and relies on Ankara for political support in high-level negotiations to end the war. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is angling for an advantageous position in the war’s aftermath and said his “greatest wish” was “for the instability that has been going on for 13 years to end.”
For Turkey, that means both weakening Syrian President Bashar Assad and cutting the Kurds down to size, as it has long-standing problems with Kurdish separatists at home.
Don’t forget, Turkey is also a US ally — a NATO member, in fact — so urging its proxies to fight US proxies in a theater where Russian forces also actively operate causes headaches in Washington. Russian warplanes bombed rebel-held areas of Aleppo on Monday, not far from where Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian Su-24 that strayed over the border in 2015. Quite an explosive position for a lame-duck US president.
Speaking of proxies … Iran-backed militias crossed into Syria from Iraq to help shore up Assad’s counterattack as well. Assad will be glad for that help as the Lebanon-based Iranian proxy group Hezbollah, once a major pillar of support for Assad’s regime, said Monday it would not deploy fighters to Syria right now. The group is still regrouping after getting mauled by Israel and is warily watching as last week’s ceasefire in that conflict appears to be breaking down already.
Where is the US in all this? Washington had reportedly held talks before the Aleppo offensive with the UAE about lifting sanctions on Syria in exchange for Assad distancing himself from Iran and Russia. That seems unlikely now that Assad’s back is against the wall and he needs all the help he can get. Beyond milquetoast calls for de-escalation, Washington has thus far kept its cards close to its vest.
French government barrels toward a brick wall
In France, political push came to shove on Monday, as Prime Minister Michel Barnier moved to ram a controversial pensions finance reform bill through the Assemblée Nationale, France’s lower (but more powerful) house of parliament. To do this, he relied on Article 49.3, a constitutional provision that allows a prime minister to advance legislation without a vote in parliament.
To stop this bill from becoming law, lawmakers must call and pass a vote of no-confidence in government and, given the unpopularity of both Barnier and the bill with populist critics on both the left and right, that’s what next for France’s latest political meltdown. Facing near-universal condemnation from the left, Barnier has been relying on support from the right-wing populists of the Rassemblement Nationale. The party’s true leader, Marine Le Pen, made her party’s intention clear with a post on social media that accused Barnier of failing to listen to the 11 million voters who backed her party at the last election.
Expect Barnier’s government to collapse as early as Wednesday. It’s unclear how many weeks or months it will take to form the next French government and to produce a budget that can steady the nerves of investors who’ve become increasingly squeamish about France’s future.
Romania repels the right – for now
Romania’s leftist and centrist parties declared victory Monday following Sunday’s election as the ruling Social Democrat party, or PSD, secured 22.4% of the vote. The far right also saw increased support, with the Alliance for Uniting Romanians winning 18.2%, double its 2020 support. Pro-western parties are now expected to form a coalition, which PSD Vice President Victor Negrescu pledged “will continue Romania's European course.”
However, the country still needs to hold a crucial presidential runoff on Dec. 8 – following first-round results from Nov. 24. After the surprise first-place finish of populist candidate Calin Georgescu – an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin – Romania’s Constitutional Court ordered a recount amid accusations of electoral interference by Moscow and TikTok, throwing the election in doubt.
On Monday, however, the court unanimously upheld the first-round result. Georgescu now faces center-right contender Elena Lasconi. If he wins, it could strain relations with Brussels and weaken support for Ukraine – which Georgescu has called “an invented state” – while a Lasconi win would reinforce Romania’s pro-EU position. While the prime minister is the head of government, the president has key decision-making powers in national security and foreign policy matters and nominates prime ministerial appointments, with the power to dissolve parliament if their choices are twice rejected.
UK prime minister promises border crackdown
The UK Labour Party, as the expression goes, hits different now. At least when it comes to immigration.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the party’s leader, lambasted what he called the UK’s post-Brexit “open borders” policies and promised a comprehensive crackdown on immigration.
This capped a sea change in the party’s views under Starmer, who took over from his (much) further left and more pro-immigration predecessor Jeremy Corbyn in 2020, and led the party back to power for the first time in 14 years this summer.
The context: Since the UK “Brexited” from the EU, immigration numbers have soared under successive Conservative governments. Last year, net migration hit a record high of 906,000 people. Immigration debates have roiled the country with particular fury in recent months. August saw violent clashes between xenophobic mobs and immigrant gangs, stoked in part by online misinformation.
The bigger story: Across the continent, just as across the pond, backlashes against mass immigration are a defining feature of politics. No longer solely a right-wing issue, parties from all points on the political spectrum must find a politically tenable position on the issue.
Putin confidante floats prickly trial balloon for Ukraine peace
If Trump tries to pitch a Ukraine peace plan that focuses only on freezing the current conflict lines and scrapping Kyiv’s NATO hopes, the Kremlin will “tell him to screw himself.”
That’s the word from oligarch Konstantin Malofeyev, an influential Kremlin insider, according to a new interview in the Financial Times.
Putin wants more. Way more. For one thing, he’ll demand the removal of President Volodymyr Zelensky. He’ll also want the US to stop sending Ukraine long-range missiles. But that’s not all. Not even close.
Russia’s president wants a broader bilateral agreement with the US on a range of global issues, including wars in the Middle East, Russia’s relationship with China, and … who knows what else. He wants nothing less than a 21st-century version of the Yalta Agreement between FDR, Winston Churchill, and Joseph Stalin.
If the war continues, Malofeyev says, Putin is prepared to use a tactical nuclear weapon.
Malofeyev has no official position in Russia, but his words are a clear trial balloon from the Kremlin ahead of Trump’s return to the White House.
Trump, a “dealmaker” who prides himself on good ties with Putin, has promised to end the war “in a day.” He’ll have his work cut out for him.
Trump threatens military intervention in the Middle East over Israeli hostages
On Monday, President-elect Donald Trump posted on social media that “if the [Israeli] hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East.”
Quite a threat to issue to an entire region, particularly given Americans’ skepticism of foreign involvement in overseas conflicts. But it’s a low-probability, high-risk sort of scenario, given that Trump did not specify who he would attack or how.
Meanwhile, at least 97 hostages or their remains are still in Gaza, and the Israeli military believes at least 35 of that group are dead. Hamas is also believed to be holding two corpses of Israeli soldiers killed a decade ago, and two living Israelis captured in 2014 and 2015.
While Trump’s threat is unlikely to lead to imminent hostage releases, we’ll be watching for any movement.
A message from our sponsor RBC Capital Markets
Post-election sentiment shifts: How investors are responding to a new government
While many investors took a ‘wait-and-see’ approach in the lead up to the election, as the results sets in, investors and businesses are evaluating how recent political shifts will impact market conditions and capital flows in the months ahead. With the election now behind us, will the next administration drive a transaction revival and support new investment opportunities? Analyze election impacts to markets and industries with insights from leading experts on the issues that matter most with Beyond the Ballot, brought to you by RBC Capital Markets.
Hard Numbers: VW goes on strike, Guinean soccer violence turns deadly, Scholz pledges Ukraine aid, US breaks travel record
$19 billion: Tens of thousands of German Volkswagen workers launched strikes at multiple car plants on Monday, protesting €18 billion ($19 billion) in company budget cuts that resulted in three plant closures and pension cuts. Volkswagen is grappling with a 64% drop in third-quarter profits and declining market demand in China.
56: Fifty-six people, including many children, died in southeast Guinea after a disagreement over a refereeing decision turned violent at a soccer match held to honor military leader Mamady Doumbouya. Opposition group National Alliance for Change and Democracy blamed the ruling junta for failing to keep people safe while organizing tournaments to bolster political support for their leader in advance of a promised presidential election, which they say violates election law.
680 million: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged $680 million in aid to Ukraine during his visit to Kyiv on Monday, his first trip to the city in over two years. New German military equipment is scheduled to be delivered this month amid questions about the long-term viability of Western support for Ukraine with the incoming administration in Washington.
3 million: US airport security cleared a record 3 million travelers on Sunday after the Thanksgiving holiday that traditionally sees families reuniting from far and wide. So, pretty smooth at security, but plenty of travelers faced frustration from there: Airlines canceled 120 flights and delayed over 6,800.
This edition of GZERO Daily was produced by Writers Matthew Kendrick, Tasha Kheiriddin, Alex Kliment, and Willis Sparks, and Managing Director Tracy Moran.
No comments:
Post a Comment