Despite the positive intentions of the Greek side, the complex and potentially explosive Greek-Turkish puzzle remains unresolved and indications are that this will continue for the foreseeable future.
Obviously, the relatively calm waters in the Aegean should and can be preserved. It is to the benefit of both countries to maintain the recent multifaceted dialogue alive, and to even support each other in international fora whenever the opportunity arises as they are presently doing. But substantive progress in resolving differences over the maritime zones in the Aegean Sea seems elusive.
Agreeing to seek international arbitration, which is the only way to resolve these differences, remains difficult as the two NATO allies do not agree on what must be discussed.
Greece has made clear that the only issues to be settled are the continental shelf and the Exclusive Economic Zone, while Turkey through the years is steadily and unilaterally raising additional issues that claims that need to be resolved.
The 2019 memorandum between Turkey and Libya delimiting the two countries’ maritime zones – the legality of which is disputed by the international community – is the latest obstacle created by Turkey that prevents any substantive progress in its relations with Greece.
In that context Ankara tries to prevent certain commercial actions, despite the fact that they conform with international law, and in so doing threatens to derail the efforts and positive atmosphere that has been created over the last two years.
In a subjective and subverted interpretation of the Bern Protocol, signed by the two countries half a century ago (1976), Turkey is now trying to derail the process of laying a cable for the power grid connection between Cyprus and Greece, and has even sent four frigates south of the Greek islands of Karpathos and Kassos, to prevent such a development.
The ongoing lower-level discussions will most likely continue, from military contacts to political talks and agreements on the so-called “positive agenda” prioritizing economic cooperation and trade, as will the engagement of the two foreign ministers, and even the periodic meetings of the leaders themselves, including the upcoming High Level Cooperation Council planned for January.
But, for the time being at least, it seems that progress in dealing substantively with resolving the maritime disputes is stalled.
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