Brookings Chine Center - December 2, 2024 - How Taiwan can—and often does—help itself - How is Trump's reelection likely to affect US foreign policy - Where are U.S.-China relations headed

 

December 2, 2024

How Taiwan can—and often does—help itself   Discussion of tensions in the Taiwan Strait often portrays Taiwan as a passive subject of PRC actions. Yet, Taiwan possesses significant tools to help itself and counter Beijing's coercion. Richard C. Bush highlights the island's economic resilience, democratic institutions, and strategic alliances as key strengths that can bolster its position amid these challenges.   Read more

How is Trump's reelection likely to affect US foreign policy?   In reaction to Trump's reelection, Brookings Foreign Policy experts delve into the potential implications for U.S. foreign policy. Patricia Kim examines whether U.S.-China relations may spiral into a freefall given Trump's unpredictable approach, and Ryan Hass explores how Trump's Taiwan policy may hinge on his selection of foreign policy advisors.   Read more

Does the United States need to update its Taiwan policy?   President-elect Donald Trump and his advisors appear open to new approaches on American policy toward Taiwan. Ryan Hass examines where potential adjustments could be made to strengthen America's capacity to protect its foremost interest in peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.   Read more

Upcoming events   Where are U.S.-China relations headed? On Friday, December 6, the Brookings China Center and Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) will present findings from the first phase of their project on "Advancing Collaboration in an Era of Strategic Competition." U.S. Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn) will participate in a keynote fireside chat moderated by Ryan Hass. There also will be a panel moderated by CSIS's Lily McElwee on the precedents of major power coordination with experts Nellie Bristol and Caitlin Welsh.   Bridges or battlegrounds? American cities in the U.S.-China relationship. On Thursday, December 12, the Brookings China Center will partner with the Truman Center for National Policy on current and future city-level engagement with China. The event will feature a presentation and panel discussion on how U.S.-China relations play out locally and what role these exchanges play in the broader U.S.-China relationship.

Past event   China's slowing economy: What China is doing about it, and what it means for the rest of the world. On Tuesday, November 26, the Brookings China Center and the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy convened a virtual panel to discuss the current state of the Chinese economy, China's policy response, and the implications for the rest of the world. Introduced by Ryan Hass and moderated by the Wall Street Journal's Bob Davis, the panel featured scholars Jon Czin, Eswar Prasad, Wendy Cutler, and Zongyuan Zoe Liu.

Track II dialogue with CICIR

On November 10, in Mexico, the Brookings China Center team met with counterparts from the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations to discuss the impact of both countries' domestic situations on the bilateral relationship, as well as the impact of U.S.-China relations on the global environment.

New book release

The United States, China, and the Competition for Control By Melanie W. Sisson   Melanie Sisson evaluates the twin claims that China seeks to dismantle the post–World War II international order and that the United States seeks to defend it. Sisson analyzes the two states' rhetoric and policy and reveals that their preferences for international order are not as divergent as today's conventional wisdom suggests.   Buy the book

More research and commentary   Asia's view ahead of the 2024 election. Ryan Hass wrote a commentary assessing Asian counterparts' top priorities for the incoming U.S. presidential administration.   Outcomes of the FOCAC Beijing Summit. Yun Sun wrote a commentary highlighting the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation's key outcomes.   A double-edged sword to Tesla. Mary Gallagher wrote a column in World Politics Review about how Trump's electoral victory could hinder Tesla's goals due to Trump's opposition to electric vehicle subsidies.   China's influence in Myanmar. Yun Sun wrote a policy memo for the Stimson Center arguing that the U.S. must take a more proactive approach to its Myanmar policy to protect its interests in the Indo-Pacific.   Trump's reshaping of the global order. Susan Thornton wrote an op-ed for the East Asia Forum contending that Trump's second term would accelerate America's retreat from global leadership, undermine multilateral institutions, and strain U.S. alliances.   The future of Trump's China policy. Ryan Hass was interviewed by NPR on how the incoming Trump presidency will affect U.S.-China relations.   The 2024 presidential candidates on Taiwan. Ryan Hass was interviewed by Fan Qifei on the future of U.S.-Taiwan relations under the presidential candidates.    Risks in the future of U.S.-China relations. Susan Thornton was interviewed by the South China Morning Post on U.S.-China relations, the risks over Taiwan, and how U.S. electoral outcomes could impact ties.   Xi's personal relationship with Trump. Ryan Hass was quoted by the New York Times as saying that even if Xi welcomed a more amicable dynamic with Trump, he would remain wary of America's competitive stance toward China.   Beijing's quiet diplomacy with Pyongyang and Moscow. Patricia Kim was quoted by Bloomberg saying that China will likely conduct quiet diplomacy in response to North Korean troops' deployment to Russia.   North Korean troops in Russia. Ryan Hass was quoted by the New York Times on the unlikelihood of the U.S. using Russia-North Korea collaboration to drive a wedge between Russia and China.   Beijing between Russia and North Korea. Patricia Kim was quoted by Bloomberg saying that China's reluctance to take sides reflects its unease with the prospect of conflict near its borders.   Trump's signaling to Taiwan about Ukraine. Ryan Hass was quoted by the New York Times on how Trump's approach to Ukraine could signal to Taiwan his potential response to Chinese pressure during a crisis.   Understanding Xi Jinping's thought process. Jon Czin was quoted by The Economist on the ease of misreading Xi Jinping despite the volume of Xi's political thought.   Trump and Harris on China. Ryan Hass, Richard Bush, and Yun Sun were quoted in an ABC News article on Trump and Harris' China policy in the lead-up to the election.   Beijing's wait-and-see approach to Trump. Patricia Kim was quoted by Kyodo News as saying that Beijing's handling of communications with the U.S. will be dependent on how the Trump administration approaches their relationship.   The future of formal diplomatic talks under Trump. Jon Czin was quoted by Reuters on his skepticism of the future of formal defense talks under Trump.   A crackdown on China's night biking. Diana Fu was quoted by Bloomberg on how China's crackdown on youth night biking could trigger a more significant social movement.   Messaging at G20 and APEC. Yun Sun was quoted by CNN saying that China will emphasize its commitment to peace and development amid global uncertainties at the G20 and APEC.   Hong Kong's global outreach. Cheng Li was quoted by the South China Morning Post on how Hong Kong leaders are strengthening economic outreach to companies in the U.K., EU, ASEAN, and the Middle East in the face of U.S. pressure.   China's shift on Trump. Yun Sun was quoted by the New York Times saying that though China mocked Trump in his first term, it now regards him with seriousness.    Beijing's view of Trump's cabinet choices. Yun Sun was quoted by the Wall Street Journal on how China views Trump's cabinet selections skeptically but still sees room for dialogue.   China's backchannel strategy to Trump. Yun Sun was quoted by the Washington Post on China's tendency to use Trump allies with economic ties to China to convey messages.

About the China Center at Brookings   The John L. Thornton China Center develops timely, independent analysis and policy recommendations to address long-standing challenges related to U.S.-China relations and China's development.