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GZero Daily Newsletter Presented by bankofamerica.com
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Dear Önder,
Welcome to Thursday. In today’s edition:
South Korea’s president faces impeachment
Cuba suffers third island-wide blackout in two months
US Supreme Court considers transgender care law
Bangladesh’s toppled strongwoman hurls “genocide” accusation
Top insurance CEO gunned down in midtown Manhattan hit
Plus: Which African country unveiled a giant statue of the late Russian warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin?
Thanks, and enjoy!
– The Daily crew
What We’re Watching: South Korean leader’s political fate, French PM ousted, Cuba left in the dark, SCOTUS mulls Tenn. transgender case, India vs. Bangladesh
South Korean president faces impeachment, treason charges
Soon after South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol lifted his imposition of martial law early Wednesday, opposition parties filed an impeachment bill against him in the National Assembly. Now, the clock is ticking: By Saturday, lawmakers will vote on Yoon’s future, and if two-thirds agree to impeach, he will be immediately suspended from office.
Yoon’s defense minister, chief of staff, and top secretaries have all resigned, and the president faces calls to do the same. South Korea’s largest labor union is calling for mass strikes if Yoon refuses to step down.
The opposition Democratic Party is also drawing up treason charges against Yoon and his defense and interior ministers, which could land them behind bars if convicted. Two presidents from South Korea’s military-rule era, Chun Doo-hwan and Roh Tae-woo, were convicted of treason in 1996.
What happens now? Yoon could resign, but Eurasia Group’s Jeremy Chan says that’s not his usual MO. “He’s a pugilist by nature. I don’t think he will go out without a fight,” he says, though “there is a slim chance that he can secure a deal with [opposition leader Lee Jae-myung] to go quietly and fade into the background in exchange for immunity for him and his wife.”
Still, Yoon’s ouster isn’t guaranteed. The opposition needs to peel off at least eight votes from Yoon’s party for the bill to pass, but given the bipartisan rejection of the coup attempt, that seems feasible.
If the bill passes, it then goes to the Constitutional Court, where at least six of nine justices need to confirm the impeachment before Yoon is removed, a process that could take weeks. There’s a wrinkle here as well, as the court currently has three vacant seats, so the decision needs to be unanimous – or the vote has to await three appointments.
We’re watching how Yoon plays the next few days, and the scramble for position ahead of elections likely to be held in the spring if Yoon is impeached.
Lawmakers vote to oust French government
For the first time since 1962, the National Assembly, France’s lower (and more powerful) house of parliament, has voted to oust a government. Prime Minister Michel Barnier is out.
Just three months ago, President Emmanuel Macron chose Barnier to lead the government after elections earlier this year empowered Macron’s critics on both the left and right, but without giving either side a working parliamentary majority.
On Monday, Barnier tried to break a bitter legislative deadlock over his proposed state budget, which proposes sharp state spending cuts, by using a constitutional provision to push his package through without a parliamentary vote. Barnier has warned that France spends more to service its debt than on defense or higher education.
Lawmakers were then faced with a choice: Accept Barnier’s powerplay or vote no-confidence in his leadership. They chose to oust him and his budget, and France will now face weeks, perhaps months, of political uncertainty as lawmakers of the left and right fight for control of an institution that neither has enough votes to lead.
Some critics have suggested the only way out of this impasse is for twice-elected President Macron to resign, allowing for elections next year rather than in 2027 as currently scheduled. Macron, though deeply unpopular, has dismissed that idea as “make-believe politics.”
It appears Macron will ask Barnier to remain as prime minister until a replacement can be named, but it will be months before voters can return to the polls. New elections can’t be held within a year of the most recent vote, which took place in July. France’s polarized politics have now left its government unable to pass a budget. It’s unclear how this problem can be resolved.
SCOTUS looks set to strike down youth gender-affirming care
On Wednesday, members of the Supreme Court’s conservative majority appeared ready to uphold a Tennessee law denying puberty-delaying medication, hormone therapy, or gender-affirming surgery to transgender youth, a decision that will hold precedent in more than 20 other states with similar laws.
The argument touched on parental rights, a precedent protecting transgender people from workplace discrimination, and, critically, whether the law discriminated on the basis of sex, which would entitle it to a stricter standard of judicial scrutiny.
The justices seemed poised to strike down the sex-based discrimination argument and rule that because scientific evidence about the safety of transitionary care for minors is contested, the question should be decided by legislatures, not judges. Such a decision would leave these issues to the states to decide. The court isn’t expected to rule until June, but it comes at a time when transgender issues are at the center of America’s culture wars.
Cuba suffers yet another blackout
For the third time in two months, Cuba was plunged into darkness on Tuesday as the island nation’s power infrastructure shuddered to a halt.
It’s the latest blow for the Caribbean country’s 11 million people, who are grinding through the worst economic crisis in decades. Rising energy prices and sluggish post-pandemic tourism have worsened the effects of economic mismanagement by the Communist government and longstanding US sanctions. In recent years, fully 10% of Cuba’s entire population fled the island altogether.
Especially painful: Cheap oil imports from friendly Venezuela have fallen. For years, Cuba has exported doctors and spies to Caracas in exchange for discounted crude. But Venezuela, struggling with US sanctions of its own, has begun prioritizing Asian buyers who can pay in hard currency. Imports from Russia and Mexico have also fallen, starving Cuba’s decrepit, oil-fired energy plants.
Politically, there has been little effect … so far. But it was only three years ago that Cuba saw its biggest anti-government protests – for food and freedom – in decades. A ferocious crackdown silenced dissent, and hundreds remain in prison, but the economic hardship has only deepened since then.
And don’t forget the yanquis. Donald Trump has tapped Cuban-American Sen. Marco Rubio, an ultra-hawk on Cuba, to be his top diplomat. Things are set to get darker still for the Cuban regime.
India-Bangladesh trade war Brews, Hasina accuses government of genocide
Anger in India over the mistreatment of Bangladesh’s Hindu minority could spark a trade war. India’s ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party has threatened to impose a five-day trade embargo against Bangladesh unless anti-Hindu violence ceases by next week, and possibly for “an indefinite period” in 2025. Some Indian businesses have already stopped exporting to Bangladesh, and Indian hospitals are reportedly refusing Bangladeshi patients.
Why the threats? Violence erupted last week after the arrest in Bangladesh of Hindu monk Krishna Das Prabhu on sedition charges following protests Prabhu led against anti-Hindu discrimination. Prabhu’s supporters stormed the Bangladeshi consulate in Agartala on Monday and reportedly hacked a Muslim lawyer to death in Chattogram.
Hindus constitute less than 10% of Bangladesh’s 170-million-strong population and have long claimed discrimination and violence from the Muslim majority. Attacks intensified after former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled Dhaka in August following violent anti-government uprisings. On Wednesday, in her first public address since then, Hasina accused interim leader Muhammad Yunus of genocide.
What’s the issue for India? An ally of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Hasina now lives in exile in India, complicating Delhi’s relationship with the new Bangladeshi administration. Bangladesh is a key ally for India’s border security, particularly in the northeastern states where armed insurgents frequently cross the border to escape local authorities.
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Hard Numbers: Murder in Manhattan, Namibia elects first female president, Prigozhin gets a statue, EU cracks down on Temu and Shein, Mexico hikes minimum wage
371.6 billion: New York City police are looking for the gunman responsible for the targeted shooting and murder of Brian Thompson, the CEO of UnitedHealthcare, one of the world’s largest companies and the most significant health insurance company in the US. In 2023, UnitedHealth Group reported $371.6 billion in revenue, a 14.6% increase from the previous year.
1: Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah has become Namibia’s first female leader, winning 57% of the vote, according to official results. Nandi-Ndaitwah is the current vice president. Her win extends the Swapo party’s 34 years of power. Opposition parties are disputing the results, citing ballot papers shortages and other issues.
16: In 16 feet (five meters) of bronze glory, a monument to the former leader of Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and his right-hand man Dmitru Utki, has been erected in the Central African Republic. The two were killed in a plane crash last year after Prigozhin attempted a coup in Russia. The Wagner Group, renamed Corps Africa, has a huge security footprint throughout Africa. The statue was a thanks from the government for the group’s success in reigning in rebel groups.
4 billion: The European trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is preparing to crack down on Temu and Shein by implementing a new tax on the ultra-cheap e-commerce platforms’ revenues. The tax will be part of an initiative to make them less competitive against European companies facing higher production costs to adhere to EU standards. The Asian online retailers have delivered approximately 4 billion parcels to the EU this year, triple the amount from 2022.
12: Mexico’s government announced a 12% minimum wage hike starting next year to combat poverty. In response to critics, the new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, said the policy would not inflame inflation but would support a “humanist” economy. It’s also likely in anticipation of Donald Trump taking issue with low labor costs undercutting American manufacturing.
This edition of GZERO Daily was produced by Writers Riley Callanan, Matthew Kendrick, Tasha Kheiriddin, Alex Kliment, and Willis Sparks, and Managing Editor Tracy Moran.
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