GZero Daily Newsletter Presented by RBC Capital Markets
Dear Önder,
Welcome to Tuesday. In today’s edition:
What Syria’s new PM tells us about Syria’s new world
How do the Kurds fit into all of this?
And … what’s Israel’s angle?
Volodymyr Zelensky prepares to negotiate
China pumps up the volume ahead of Trump Tariffs 2.0
Exclusive: Plus, we reveal two more of our Top 10 Political Game Changers of 2024!
Enjoy, and thanks for reading.
– The Daily crew
What’s next for Syria: HTS appoints PM, Kurds caught in the crossfire, Israel makes a move
HTS appoints PM for Syria’s transitional government
Syria's leading rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, has appointed Mohammed al-Bashir as interim prime minister of its proposed 18-month transitional government of Syria.
Who is Mohammed Bashir? Born in 1983 in a village in Jabal Zawiya, an area of Idlib province, Bashir graduated from Aleppo University in 2007 with a bachelor's in electrical engineering, and from Idlib University with a degree in Sharia and Law in 2021. He also worked as an engineer for a gas plant affiliated with the Syrian Gas Company. Bashir is proficient in English and has been conducting press conferences for the SSE for the past year, as well as speaking with the media during the recent HTS campaign. It is unknown whether he is a hardliner or more moderate in his views.
What were Bashir’s previous roles with HTS? Bashir served for a year as head of the HTS-linked Syrian Salvation Government, or SSG, in Idlib in northwestern Syria, as well as Minister of Development and Humanitarian Affairs for the SSG under his predecessor there, Ali Keda. Before that, he was the director of Islamic Education at the SSG’s Ministry of Awqaf for two and a half years. According to his SSG profile, in Idlib Bashir focused on modernizing government processes using technology, encouraging investment, strengthening the economy, and “meeting the humanitarian needs” of displaced persons.
Concern for the Kurds
Will Syria’s Kurdish minority face renewed persecution – and possibly lose its autonomy – under an HTS government? While many cheer the ouster of Bashar Assad, there is concern about how they will be treated under the new Turkish-backed regime.
Who are the Kurds? Syria’s 2.5 million Kurds, primarily Sunni Muslims, comprise about 15% of Syria’s population. A third live in the Taurus Mountains near Aleppo, another third along the Turkish border in the Jazirah, around 10% near Jarabulus northeast of Aleppo with the remainder residing on the outskirts of Damascus. The Kurds were nomadic until the end of the Ottoman Empire when their population was divided across several nation-states. The Syrian government began stripping the Kurds of their Syrian nationality in 1962 and has conducted a systematic campaign of ethnic cleansing designed to erase their culture and identity.
In neighboring Turkey, Kurds comprise about 18% of the population and have been severely oppressed by successive governments, including the current administration of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Armed resistance by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party has resulted in over 40,000 deaths since the 1980s.
What is the Kurds’ geopolitical significance? The US supported the Kurds – and relied on them – in its fight against the Islamic State in the 2010s, and according to senior government officials, will continue to do so under the new regime. However, since the defeat of ISIS in 2019, the diminished US presence left many Kurds at the mercy of Turkish troops. Now, Turkey has announced that it will be reopening its border with Syria, to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees. An estimated 3 million refugees are currently living in Turkey – and facilitating their return could also provide an opportunity for Erdogan to eliminate the Kurdish presence on the border.
Israel’s buffer raises Egypt’s ire
On Sunday, Israel seized Syrian land near the Golan Heights, citing security concerns as Assad’s forces vacate the area and the new HTS government takes shape. Israel claims that its 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement with Syria is no longer in force because of Assad’s ouster, creating a power vacuum in the area. Israel has sent tanks over the border into the buffer zone with Syria, calling the move temporary, limited, and aimed at ensuring Israel’s security. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the move is necessary and that Israel “will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on our border.”
What is Egypt saying? In response, Egypt has denounced the move as an opportunistic land grab, accusing Israel of exploiting the situation “to occupy more Syrian territories” and calling on the UN Security Council to take “a firm position towards the Israeli aggression on Syria.”
Egypt considers Israel’s control over the Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in the 1967 Six-Day War, an occupation. Israel annexed the Heights in 1981, a move that has only been recognized by the US.
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Post-election sentiment shifts: How investors are responding to a new government
While many investors took a ‘wait-and-see’ approach in the lead up to the election, as the results sets in, investors and businesses are evaluating how recent political shifts will impact market conditions and capital flows in the months ahead. With the election now behind us, will the next administration drive a transaction revival and support new investment opportunities? Analyze election impacts to markets and industries with insights from leading experts on the issues that matter most with Beyond the Ballot, brought to you by RBC Capital Markets.
What We're Watching: Zelensky mulls negotiations, China preps for Trump 2.0
Zelensky preps for hard bargaining
President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to end Russia’s war with Ukraine. That would require Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to open negotiations – and to find enough common ground to agree at least to a ceasefire. Putin and Zelensky are now trying to strengthen their respective bargaining positions before talks can begin.
On Monday, Zelensky said via social media that he’s open to the possibility of Western governments posting troops on Ukrainian territory to guarantee his country’s territorial integrity, an idea first suggested publicly by France’s President Emmanuel Macron in February. “But before that, we must have a clear understanding of when Ukraine will be in the European Union and when Ukraine will be in NATO,” Zelensky wrote.
The EU and NATO remain unlikely to commit to precise membership timetables until it becomes clear what Ukraine’s future borders will be, and many Western leaders remain opposed to deploying troops into a warzone that could involve them directly in a war with Russia. For now, Zelensky continues to work with the outgoing Joe Biden administration to bolster his weapons stockpiles and to win more freedom to use Western weapons against his targets inside Russia.
There’s another political transition that Zelensky is watching carefully: Germany will hold national elections in February, and current Chancellor Olaf Scholz will likely lose his job to Friedrich Merz, the head of the center-right Christian Democratic Union. Merz is more publicly hawkish on helping Ukraine repel Russian invaders. That prospect gives Zelensky some hope that European backing for Ukraine will remain even if Trump dials back US support.
China vows to pump up its economy — with one eye on Trump’s tariffs
China’s Politburo — the top leadership cabinet — said Monday it would take “more proactive” fiscal measures and loosen up its monetary policy in 2025 as it aims to boost domestic consumption. The body met ahead of the annual Central Economic Work Conference, reportedly scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, at which the country’s economic policy priorities for the coming year are laid out — and one of those priorities is gearing up for Donald Trump.
The background: China has experienced over three years of economic turmoil that originated in the all-important property market, where most Chinese households keep their long-term savings. Defaults and halted constructions from major developers dovetailed with a local government debt crunch to place tremendous headwinds against economic growth, leading to stock market turbulence and high youth unemployment.
Beijing has attempted to goose growth with monetary easing (aka lowering central bank interest rates) since September and unveiled a $1.4 trillion debt package aimed at stabilizing growth in November. But kickstarting the economic engine is proving difficult.
Watch out for Trump: The incoming US president is promising to hike tariffs on Chinese goods, having mentioned figures as high as 60% on the campaign trail. While tariffs are a laborious way to cut off one’s nose to spite one’s face and are likely to hurt the US economy, Beijing’s exports are one of the few sectors doing well right now. Getting to a stable footing before the trade barriers go up must be a high priority.
But China isn’t just playing defense: US chip-making giant NVIDIA saw its stock slide 3% on Monday after news broke that Beijing was opening an antitrust investigation. NVIDIA has been a darling of investors during the AI boom, with shares nearly tripling in value this year — but this shot across the bow is a sign of what could come.
Opinion: The world prepares its go bags
by Lindsay Newman
The abundance of volatility in the global system since at least the start of the pandemic has meant that we should expect more geopolitical risk rather than less. Now, in addition to multiple ongoing conflicts, a year of electoral instability, and pandemic hangovers, the return of Donald Trump as the US president injects further unpredictability into this landscape.
Already since his reelection, an unusual set of waves have crested. In South Korea – a key US ally – the declaration of martial law last week stunned the domestic and international audience. After widespread protests broke out, President Yoon Suk Yeol issued a quick (but not immediate) retraction with more fallout yet to come. Elsewhere, in France, Prime Minister Michel Barnier lost a no-confidence vote after parliamentary budget talks stalled. The measure reveals the fractures and radicalized forces that continue to plague one of Europe’s leading economies. And in Syria, Islamist militants turned Aleppo and Damascus into a hot zone once again – raising tensions in an already active neighborhood – before spectacularly overthrowing Bashar Assad’s government on Saturday.
Trump is, of course, not responsible for any of these developments. But the world is on edge. His posts in recent weeks on Truth Social have done little to assuage the anxieties and instead serve as kerosene to various burning fires. Trump roiled markets in late November when he announced plans to impose 25% tariffs on all products coming into the US from Mexico and Canada with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The market remarkably found the news surprising despite Trump’s avowal throughout his 2024 election campaign that he would again rely on the tariff lever as president.
More recently, Trump posted to warn that if the hostages held by Hamas are not released before his inauguration there will be “ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East.” Trump’s commitment to “hit harder” those responsible at a historic level strikes a distinctly different tone than the one regional actors have become accustomed to with Joe Biden’s administration.
In response to the preexisting condition of volatility and the forthcoming infusion of Trumpredictability, the world is preparing “go bags” for the year(s) ahead. For more on the choices facing world leaders with a looming Trump 2.0, click here.
GZERO’s No. 8 2024 Game Changer: South Africa’s divisive populist
Who is he? It’s not often a former president continues to play a crucial role in the longer-term direction of his country’s politics, but Jacob Zuma is no ordinary former president. From 2009-2018, the charismatic Zuma led the African National Congress and served as South Africa’s president. A series of corruption allegations forced him from power, and Zuma felt he’d been betrayed by his deputy, Cyril Ramaphosa, who is now the ANC’s leader and South Africa’s president.
What did he accomplish in 2024? In 2024, three years after he served two months in prison on a corruption-related charge, Zuma came for his revenge. He formed a brand new political party — uMkhonto we Sizwe, or MK — and ran again for president. The new party didn’t come close to winning nationally, but by drawing 45% support in Zuma’s home region, KwaZulu-Natal, he helped strip the ANC of its national majority.
How has he changed the game? The ANC, Nelson Mandela’s party, the political embodiment of liberation from apartheid, saw its national vote share fall from 57% in 2019 to just 40% in 2024. That stunning result then forced the ANC to invite the largest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, to form a government of national unity. This is the first time the ANC has had to share national political power since the end of apartheid more than three decades ago.
Zuma’s ambitions were not the only factor that pushed down the ANC’s vote share so sharply. South Africa is still plagued with high unemployment, inflation, corruption, crumbling infrastructure, and a lack of economic opportunity for young people. But, according to Eurasia Group Africa expert Ziyanda Stuurman, “there is a direct line between Zuma’s political maneuvers [in 2024], and the emergence of a coalition government few people would have ever thought was possible.”
What’s next for 2025? It’s too early to say whether forcing the ANC to work with the opposition DA will prove positive or negative for South African politics, but it’s clear that Jacob Zuma changed the political game this year in his country. His challenges to Ramaphosa’s government will continue into 2025.
GZERO’s No. 7 2024 Game Changer: Citizens who said ‘No’ to status quo
Who are they? Voters went to the polls this year in more than 50 countries with a combined population of more than 3.5 billion. A lot of them had strong messages to send their elected leaders.
What did they accomplish in 2024? In June, voters in India stunned outside observers by stripping the still-popular Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party of its majority in parliament. The result forced the BJP to turn to fickle allies to pass more of Modi’s reform agenda and limited his room for maneuver.
Also in June, voters in South Africa made history by depriving the African National Congress of its majority for the first time in the country’s post-apartheid history. With just 40% of the vote, the ANC was forced to invite the opposition Democratic Alliance to form a unity government — one that has held together contrary to expectations, it must be said.
In July, voters in France punished their centrist President Emmanuel Macron by casting ballots for enough far-left and far-right parties to gut the political center. After struggling to form a government to advance state spending reforms, left- and right-wing parties came together to force Michel Barnier, a compromise choice for PM, out of his job. France’s political crisis continues.
Also in July, fed-up voters in the UK ended 14 years of rule by the Conservative Party in favor of Labour, led by new Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. The Conservatives' share of parliamentary seats fell from 252 to just 121, in part because Nigel Farage’s new Reform UK party drew much of the Tories’ support. And British politics has only become more combative. A November poll found that the percentage of UK adults with an unfavorable view of Starmer’s work as PM outnumbers those who approve by well over two to one.
In October, a shock election result in Japan cost the Liberal Democratic Party its majority in the Diet, the country’s legislature. The LDP has held power almost continuously for nearly 70 years.
In November, Donald Trump carried all the so-called swing states in a victory that will replace President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris with a Republican Party administration.
“Unemployment hurts a small number of people a lot, but inflation irritates everyone,” notes Eurasia Group’s Vice Chairman Gerald Butts. “Incumbents are discovering that hurting all of the people even some of the time makes the whole country angry at their government.”
How did they change the game?
By casting their votes for change in surprising numbers, they let incumbents around the world know that leaders are more accountable than ever. They also created blueprints for future opposition candidates and political parties both old and new to challenge even the most seemingly well-entrenched political incumbents on bread-and-butter issues like high prices.
What to expect from them in 2025? The anti-incumbent trend looks likely to continue in the coming year.
Olaf Scholz, the least popular German chancellor since the end of World War II, will face voters in February. And at some point in the coming months, the deeply unpopular Justin Trudeau must decide whether to lead his Liberal Party into Canadian national elections they are very likely to lose.
Hard Numbers: Cocoa prices get hot, Looters find Assad’s garage, Tokyo cuts the workweek short, New York jury acquits in high-profile manslaughter case, Mangione faces murder charge
7: Giving someone a box of chocolates for the holidays? That could soon count as a luxury gift now as cocoa prices have reached their highest levels in seven months. Dry weather is expected to suppress crop yields in West Africa, one of the world’s main producers. Prices for the stuff reached $10,454 per metric ton.
2 billion: In the hours after Syrian despot Bashar Assad fled the country, ordinary Syrians ransacked his sumptuous presidential villa, making off with hundreds of thousands of dollars of luxury goods and furnishings belonging to the “butcher of Damascus” and his wife. The Assad family had an estimated worth of $2 billion in a country wracked by war and poverty. Gear heads noted with awe that Assad’s private garage reportedly contained dozens of exotic cars, including a rare gullwing Mercedes and a Ferrari F50, worth nearly $2 million.
4: The city of Tokyo has moved to a four-day workweek for municipal employees, as part of a strategy to boost the country’s record-low birth rate. The average Japanese woman will have 1.2 children, well below the “replacement” rate of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population. That extra day off is meant to ease the burden on families with small children, and maybe to give those on the fence about having kids some extra free time to … make them
6: A jury in New York acquitted former Marine Daniel Penny of manslaughter in the death of Jordan Neely, a mentally ill subway performer, in 2023. Neely, who was Black, had been behaving erratically and threatening passengers before Penny, who is white, subdued him with a fatal chokehold for roughly six minutes. The case sparked intense debate about race, mental illness, and New York’s pandemic-driven crime surge.
5: Authorities arrested and arraigned Luigi Mangione, a person of interest in the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, on Monday in Altoona, PA. The 26-year-old, who was spotted at a McDonalds, was reportedly found with a 3D-printed gun and a silencer. He has been charged with five crimes in the Keystone State: carrying a gun without a license, forgery, falsely identifying himself to authorities, tampering with records of identification, and possessing “instruments of crime.” Late Monday, authorities in the Big Apple added their charges, including second-degree murder, and Mangione is expected to be extradited to New York.
This edition of GZERO Daily was produced by Writers Matthew Kendrick, Tasha Kheiriddin, Alex Kliment, and Willis Sparks, and Managing Editor Tracy Moran.
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