As world leaders convene this week at the G-20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, U.S. president-elect Donald Trump is casting a long shadow—even though he isn’t there. The foremost question for countries and companies alike seems to be: ‘What will Trump’s return mean for us?’

Geopolitical risk expert Ian Bremmer, speaking on FP Live, said “There are enormous numbers of countries that will kiss his ass much harder and more repeatedly than they would have four years ago, or than they thought they would have two weeks ago. That means Trump has a high chance of gaining some foreign policy wins in his early months in office.”

What could those wins look like, and could they involve U.S. adversaries? Bremmer says Trump, unlike Biden, is willing to negotiate with other countries regardless of perceived differences in values: “In many ways, Trump is more interested in making the U.S. like China than he is in making China like the United States.”

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