Iran Update, November 29, 2024 - Syrian opposition forces continued their offensive into Syrian regime-held territory

 CTP - Critical  Threats

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Iran Update, November 29, 2024

Syrian opposition forces continued their offensive into Syrian regime-held territory and advanced into Aleppo City. anced into Aleppo City. The opposition forces have continued expanding their offensive eastward since launching the surprise offensive on November 27. Thousands of fighters and armored elements advanced quickly eastward, seizing several villages within a few hours of launching the offensive.[i] Fateh Mubin—an opposition group based in HTS-controlled Idlib Province—announced on November 28 that they had seized control of another 13 villages and achieved the “complete liberation” of the countryside to the west of Aleppo City.[ii] Fateh Mubin designated the western Aleppo countryside a ”closed military zone.”[iii] Local Syrian sources reported that opposition forces seized armored vehicles and weapons, including anti-tank guided missiles and man-portable air defense systems, belonging to the Syrian Arab Army (SAA).[iv] Fateh Mubin claimed that opposition forces also detained over 20 pro-regime fighters.[v] The opposition forces advanced into the western parts of Aleppo City on November 29, marking the first time that the city has been contested since pro-regime forces captured it in late 2016.[vi] Opposition forces then advanced into the city center and declared a curfew over the city, according to local reports and geolocated footage.[vii] Social media accounts posted videos of opposition fighters entering a military hospital, a police headquarters, and the Aleppo municipal building.[viii]

The opposition forces killed an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officer, Brigadier General Kiomars Pour Hashemi, as they advanced.[ix] The IRGC acknowledged his death and described him as a military adviser to the Syrian regime.[x] IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami attended a ceremony for Pour Hashemi in Tehran on November 29.[xi]

Pro-regime forces have failed to mount an effective defense against the surprise offensive by opposition forces. A SAA-affiliated social media account claimed that opposition forces outnumber the SAA forces around Aleppo City and suggested that the SAA may be unable to respond until reinforcements arrive.[xii] Other social media users reported that SAA units retreated toward al Safirah, southeast of Aleppo City, although CTP-ISW cannot verify these reports.[xiii] Russian forces separately conducted multiple airstrikes—some in cooperation with the SAA—targeting opposition forces.[xiv] Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on November 29 that the opposition offensive is a violation of Syrian sovereignty and that Moscow supports Bashar al Assad in reclaiming the territory.[xv]

Iranian officials and Iranian-backed Iraqi militias blamed the United States and Israel for the opposition offensive. Iranian leaders called for “coordinated action” to defeat the offensive and accused the United States and Israel of supporting opposition activity against Assad.[xvi] Iranian-backed Iraqi militias Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba and Kataib Sayyida al Shuhada released statements claiming that Israel is responsible for offensive because the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) was defeated in Lebanon.[xvii] An official from Kataib Sayyid al Shuhada vowed that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—will defeat the opposition forces.[xviii]

The Israel-Lebanese Hezbollah ceasefire has continued to hold since it went into effect on November 26. Hezbollah has not conducted any attacks into Israel and the IDF and Hezbollah have not engaged in any ground combat. Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem gave a public speech to acknowledge the end of fighting on November 29, saying that Hezbollah would abide by the ceasefire “with our heads held high.”[xix] Qassem emphasized that the ceasefire includes a full IDF withdrawal from Lebanon by January 25, 2025.[xx] The IDF still has a force presence in southern Lebanon for now in order to counter any potential violations of the ceasefire by Hezbollah.[xxi] Qassem also vowed that Hezbollah would retain a role in Lebanese politics and support reconstruction in Lebanon.[xxii]

The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) began post-war operations across Lebanon. The LAF is clearing roads, detonating unexploded ordinance, and installing checkpoints, especially in southern Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and southern Lebanon.[xxiii] The LAF began to deploy forces, including armored elements, to southern Lebanon on November 27—one day after the ceasefire into effect.[xxiv] Hezbollah Secretary General Qassem said that Hezbollah will engage in “high-level coordination” with the LAF to implement the ceasefire.[xxv]    

The IDF conducted airstrikes targeting Hezbollah in southern Lebanon in response to militant activity.[xxvi] The IDF struck a rocket launcher at a Hezbollah site in Bisariya, near Sidon, after detecting unspecified activity at the site.[xxvii] An Israeli military correspondent reported that the IDF detected a ”non-immediate threat” at the site that the IDF needed to neutralize.[xxviii] Axios reported that the United States assessed that Hezbollah was trying to relocate rockets to new sites.[xxix] The IDF separately struck two fighters who had entered a Hezbollah site and began moving rocket launchers.[xxx] The LAF accused Israel on November 28 of violating the ceasefire.[xxxi]

The IDF continued trying to prevent displaced citizens from returning to their homes in southern Lebanon.[xxxii] The IDF conducted a drone strike as a “warning” to deter individuals in vehicles from approaching Markaba.[xxxiii] The IDF similarly shelled targets near al Wazzani likely to deter individuals from approaching the area.[xxxiv] A Hezbollah commander told the Wall Street Journal that Hezbollah fighters who live in southern Lebanon will remain in the area and retain their small arms.[xxxv]

A Hamas fighter conducted a shooting attack targeting Israelis in the West Bank, highlighting the threat that Hamas poses outside the Gaza Strip. The Hamas fighter wounded eight Israelis on a bus near Ariel settlement in the northern West Bank on November 29.[xxxvi] Israeli forces then killed the fighter and assessed that the fighter acted on behalf of a cell rather than as an individual.[xxxvii] The IDF assessed that attacks in the West Bank will increase in the coming weeks. This attack comes after the IDF assessed in September 2024 that it had defeated Hamas in the Gaza Strip.[xxxviii]

Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas designated an interim successor should he die or leave office.[xxxix] Abbas, who has been president since 2005 and is 89 years old, designated on November 28 the Palestinian National Council (PNC) chairman to serve as interim president for no more than 90 days after Abbas leaves office. The PNC is the 747-member legislative body under the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and represents Palestinians from the West Bank, Gaza Strip, and diaspora.[xl] The current PNC chairman is Rawhi Fattouh, who had been PA President for two months after the death of Yasser Arafat in 2004.[xli] Fattouh has served as Abbas’ personal representative since 2006.[xlii]

Iran notified the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it plans to expand its uranium enrichment capacity significantly. These plans include installing over 6,000 additional centrifuges and activating others at the Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities.[xliii] This notification is consistent with the Atomic Energy Organization announcing on November 27 that it began injecting gas into "thousands of advanced centrifuges.”[xliv] Iran is retaliating for the IAEA Board of Governors passing on November 21 a censure resolution proposed by the E3 (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom). The resolution condemned Iran for failing to cooperate fully with the IAEA over outstanding questions about the Iranian nuclear program. The activation and installation of additional centrifuges comes as Iran has very likely restarted its nuclear weapons program in early 2024.[xlv] CTP-ISW is not prepared to assess that Iranian leaders have decided to build a nuclear weapon at this time, however.

Key Takeaways:

Syria: Syrian opposition forces continued their offensive into Syrian regime-held territory and advanced into Aleppo City. Pro-regime forces have failed to mount an effective defense against the surprise offensive.

Lebanon: The Israel-Lebanese Hezbollah ceasefire has continued to hold. The LAF began post-war operations, including clearing roads, detonating unexploded ordinance, and installing checkpoints across Lebanon.

West Bank: A Hamas fighter conducted a shooting attack targeting Israelis in the West Bank, highlighting the threat that Hamas poses outside the Gaza Strip. This threat remains despite the defeat of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Iran: Iran notified the IAEA that it plans to expand its uranium enrichment capacity by installing over 6,000 additional centrifuges and activating others at the Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities.