Israel, Hezbollah Escalate Attacks Against Backdrop of Cease-Fire Talks |
The exchange of fire continued today after a weekend in which an Israeli air strike in Beirut killed at least 29 people and Hezbollah launched at least 250 rockets and other projectiles toward Israel. It was Hezbollah’s largest such barrage in weeks. The attacks come as negotiators from both sides are considering a cease-fire deal to allow residents living near both sides of the border to return to the homes they fled; U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke to his Israeli counterpart Israel Katz over the weekend about the proposed agreement. While both sides have said little publicly about the details of the agreement, Israeli Ambassador to Washington Michael Herzog told Israeli Army Radio today that it could be cinched “within days.” He also said that it aimed to improve enforcement of a previous UN resolution that ended a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. (NYT, CNN, AP) |
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“Much more than its actions in Gaza, Israel’s war against Hezbollah threatens Iran’s ability to project power and profoundly diminishes its ability to deter Israeli interventions into its own domestic politics and nuclear program. The weakening of Iran’s position will benefit Israelis in the short term. But in the long term, it will significantly increase the risk of a regional war and even the likelihood that Iran will acquire nuclear weapons,” the U.S. Army War College’s Carrie A. Lee writes for Foreign Affairs. “Hezbollah will be unable to return to the status quo ante of October 8 after the Lebanon war ends, even assuming it ends in a clear way. The other sectarian communities appear to be no longer willing to bend to the party’s dictates,” the Carnegie Middle East Center’s Michael Young writes. This October CFR-Brookings Institution event looked at the future of the Middle East. Read the full suite of Foreign Affairs and CFR.org resources on Israel and the current conflict. |
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UN Climate Talks Reach Deal On $300 Billion Annually for Developing Countries |
Wealthy nations will be “taking the lead” on raising $300 billion per year for climate finance by 2035 under a deal reached yesterday morning. The money will be from “public and private, bilateral and multilateral” sources. Additionally, all countries agreed to work together to scale total climate finance to developing countries to at least $1.3 trillion per year by 2035. Many developing country negotiators called the deal a disappointment, while UN Secretary-General António Guterres said he saw it as “a base on which to build.” Some negotiators walked out of the talks in protest at the last minute, fueling ultimately unrealized concerns that they would collapse entirely. (UNFCCC, UN News, Bloomberg) |
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Malaysia, South Korea Upgrade Ties and Pledge to Finish Free Trade Deal |
The countries will finalize a free trade agreement by next year, their leaders agreed during a state visit by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to Seoul today. They also agreed to facilitate South Korean access to critical minerals from Malaysia’s reserves and to increase cooperation in the defense industry. (Yonhap, Reuters)
South Korea: The final round of talks on nailing down a legally binding treaty against plastic pollution opened in the city of Busan today. Sixty-six countries as well as the European Union are hashing out whether they will agree to a limit on the amount of plastic that companies are allowed to produce and what kind of recycling could fall under these requirements. (AP)
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U.S. Securities Regulator Summons Indian Billionaire Adani in Bribery Case |
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission gave Indian businessman Gautam Adani twenty-one days to respond to the summons. This is a different case than the U.S. Department of Justice indictment against Adani unveiled last week, but both refer to the same alleged bribery scheme. The Adani group has rejected the charges. (Economic Times) Myanmar: Thousands of Rohingya refugees who previously fled the country have returned to fight in its civil war, Reuters reported, citing briefings from aid organizations and unnamed sources. Many are reportedly fighting on the side of the junta, which denied conscripting Muslims in a statement. (Reuters)
CFR’s Global Conflict Tracker watches developments on the civil war in Myanmar.
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Middle East and North Africa |
UAE Arrests Three Suspects After Killing of Israeli-Moldovan Rabbi |
Israel’s government has called the killing of Rabbi Zvi Kogan, who went missing last Thursday in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), an “antisemitic terrorist event.” Emirati officials today announced they arrested three Uzbek nationals as suspects. (NBC) |
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Zimbabwe, Zambia Experience Nationwide Blackouts and Drought |
A director of Zambia’s state electricity utility said it was investigating the cause of the simultaneous outage for both countries. The countries face severe electricity shortages as a drought has strained hydropower generation, their main source of electricity generation. (Reuters, Bloomberg) Mali: An Al-Qaeda-linked militant group known as JNIM in Mali killed at least six fighters from Russia’s paramilitary Wagner Group, JNIM and an unnamed Malian security official said. Wagner has been in Mali since 2021 in the wake of the country’s military coup. (AP)
CFR’s Mariel Ferragamo traces Russia’s growing reach across Africa.
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Pro-Russia Candidate Holds Surprise Lead in First Round of Romanian Elections |
Pro-Russia ultranationalist Călin Georgescu won 23 percent of votes, with 99 percent counted. He has no party affiliation and campaigned largely on TikTok. Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu was on track to be knocked out of the runoff election by center-right Elena Lasconi, who came in second place. Romania shares a 400-mile border with Ukraine and is home to a North Atlantic Treaty Organization military base. (BBC, The Guardian) France/Germany/UK/Iran: Iran’s deputy foreign minister will hold nuclear talks on Friday with envoys from France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (UK). They will be the first such detailed direct talks in two years on the lapsed nuclear deal between the countries. (The Guardian)
CFR’s Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow explore Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
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Center-left Orsi Wins Uruguay’s Presidential Election |
Yamandú Orsi won 49.8 percent of the vote to center-right Álvaro Delgado’s 45.9 percent, official results said. Outgoing center-right president Luis Lacalle Pou congratulated Orsi and pledged a smooth transition. (MercoPress) Haiti: Up to half of members in armed groups are children and the number of children recruited into such groups rose by 70 percent over the last year, the UN Children’s Fund said. (UNICEF)
At this CFR meeting, experts discuss a Haiti in crisis.
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Trump Names Wall Street Investor Scott Bessent to Lead Treasury |
President-Elect Donald Trump named Scott Bessent as his pick to lead the U.S. Treasury, adding in his announcement that Bessent would “help curb the unsustainable path of federal debt.” Bessent told the Wall Street Journal his policy priority would be delivering tax cuts. Trump also said he would nominate Congresswoman Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR) for Secretary of Labor, former Congressman David Weldon (R-FL) to lead the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and Russell Vought to lead the Office of Management and Budget. (BBC, WSJ) |
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