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| 29 October 2022 | Welcome to our 1,828 newly joined SCMP Global Impact readers who signed up in the past week. | Dear Global Impact Readers,
The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party came and went pretty much without incident, with President Xi Jinping, as expected, securing his third term as general secretary before reshuffling his leadership pack.
More, though, is still to come as Xi plays his game of political chess having been elevated on par with chairman Mao Zedong and paramount leader Deng Xiaoping.
In this issue, Daniel Kwan, the China editor at the Post, looks back at the events of the last week in Beijing and ponders what it all means for the next five years (and maybe more) for China.
And a reminder, we have been focusing on the 20th party congress since the middle of September, but will be returning to our regular schedule in November.
Andrew Mullen
Deputy Editor, Political Economy
All the president’s men
The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party ended last Saturday with the election of a new Central Committee and amendments of the party constitution.
Then, on the following day, President Xi Jinping further cemented his paramount leader status with a third term as the general secretary, while also confirming a new line-up for the Politburo and its powerful Standing Committee.
The results were largely as expected as some of the familiar faces like Premier Li Keqiang and parliamentary chief Li Zhanshu are set to retire.
At the same time, Xi has populated the leadership core with his trusted aides and some up-and-coming new faces. The absence of any heir apparent in the new line-up also indicates that Xi will continue to rule China for another five years and maybe beyond.
The new leadership is not just younger, but it also boasts a more professional makeup. Within the Politburo, at least half-a-dozen members share a background in science and technology. There is also a public health expert and a top industrialist with decades of management experience.
The retention of Foreign Minister Wang Yi and military strongman Zhang Youxia despite their advanced age, however, indicate that Xi also values continuity and keeping a steady-hand in these two critical areas. There was, however, for the first time in decades, no woman selected for the Politburo.
Meanwhile, the congress also sent plenty of signals and messages about where Xi is going to lead the party and the country. On different occasions, Xi has made it clear that the congress marked the beginning of a new era, which will eventually see China become a modernised and prosperous world power in around three decades.
To achieve that, Xi stated that upholding the Communist Party’s leadership is crucial - a message that he again drove home during a visit with the newly-minted Politburo Standing Committee members to the party’s mecca of Yanan on Thursday.
The congress was only marred by an unscripted event on its closing day when former president Hu Jintao was escorted out of the meeting soon after it began. While the episode has attracted much attention overseas, it was not reported in domestic media.
More personnel changes are expected to be announced between now and the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress in March. Some of these changes are expected and others will be surprises. However, one thing can be certain - they are all the president’s men. |
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| On track or off? US analysts say 20th party congress suggests difficult bilateral relations ahead | | • | New military leadership looks solid, but appointees to domestic positions seem more experienced in party ideology than in economics, which could destabilise ties | | | • | ‘Looking into the future, it is uncertainty as far as the eye can see,’ one analyst says |
| While there has been little official US comment on the 20th party congress that saw President Xi Jinping gain an unprecedented third term, former US officials and analysts say Beijing’s apparent lack of attention to mounting economic problems and its hardening political and military line do not bode well for US-China ties. The twice-in-a-decade Communist Party meetings are generally reserved for handling succession issues and outlining broad vision. But China is facing a property crisis, consumer slump tied to its zero-Covid policy, weakening currency, capital outflow and historically low growth rates even as youth unemployment hit a record high of 19.3 per cent in June. Read more |
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| The Hong Kong connection: Xi Jinping, 4 other top Chinese leaders and an ideologue who studied city from afar | | • | New hierarchy of seven-member Politburo Standing Committee could lead to smoother implementation of key policies involving Hong Kong, analysts say | | | • | Pro-Beijing heavyweight says new team gives Hong Kong ‘quite a lot opportunities to be involved in the overall development of China’ |
| China’s new top decision-making body unveiled over the weekend comprises an unprecedented number of leaders with extensive links to Hong Kong in their previous roles and an ideologue who had long studied the city, making for a line-up analysts have suggested can lead to a smoother implementation of Beijing’s key policies related to Hong Kong. Pro-Beijing heavyweight Rita Fan Hsu Lai-tai also said the new team would be “an asset” for Hong Kong as it could guide the city through an increasingly tense geopolitical environment and help it to further integrate with the country’s overall development. Read more |
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| China’s top legislature ‘deliberates’ on new nominations, as leadership reshuffle stokes market turmoil | | • | The National People’s Congress (NPC) standing committee, which convened a meeting from Wednesday to Sunday, may have begun political appointments | | | • | The NPC’s early approval of vice premiers could include those responsible for the economy, pandemic control, science and technology as well as foreign trade |
| Following days of market turmoil, all eyes are on the appointment of China’s top economic aides, who will be responsible for guiding the country through coming economic storms and continuing Xi Jinping’s grand modernisation strategy. While Li Qiang, now China’s No 2 in the party hierarchy, will take the premiership in March, the naming of senior government roles might have already begun, enabling appointees to get to grips with economic challenges, plan policy priorities and ensure a seamless transition. Read more |
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| China’s Communist Party cements ‘common prosperity’ as core economic agenda | | • | Constitutional revisions also call for acceleration of the ‘dual circulation’ concept | | | • | Decision comes as structural problems mount at home and headwinds gain strength abroad |
| China’s Communist Party has cemented “security” and “common prosperity” as high priorities on its economic agenda by adding the “dual circulation” strategy and pursuit of “high-quality development” to the party constitution. The revisions came amid fierce debate about whether Beijing is leaning towards a more inward course and prepared to sacrifice some growth to counteract widening socioeconomic inequality as structural problems mount at home and headwinds gain strength abroad. Read more |
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| Was Beijing’s praise of ‘noble’ party and state leaders a nod to Li Keqiang? | | • | A state media report didn’t name names when it recognised leaders who ‘voluntarily’ asked to retire | | | • | President Xi Jinping used similar accolades for previous high-level retirements |
| Chinese state media has praised “some party and state leaders” for voluntarily stepping down to make way for younger talent – a likely reference to the retirement of China’s premier, Li Keqiang, among others. Without directly naming anyone, a report on Monday from state news agency Xinhua said the leaders voluntarily asked for retirement during the consultation period for the new Communist Party leadership ahead of the 20th party congress. Read more |
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| Absence of women in China’s new leadership elite a ‘step backwards’ | | • | For the first time in decades, no woman has been selected for the Politburo, and just 11 of the 205 Central Committee seats went to women | | | • | Sun Chunlan, who is set to retire as vice-premier in March, was the sixth woman to join the Politburo |
| For the first time in 20 years, no women have been selected for the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo, an omission experts say is “a step backwards” for gender diversity, and one that may further dampen female participation in Chinese politics. The new line-up of top party leadership that was unveiled on Sunday at the conclusion of the week-long 20th party congress was an all-man band. Further, both the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee and the 24-seat Politburo were filled exclusively with men of Han ethnicity. Read more |
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| China’s reshuffled military leadership sends clear signal on Taiwan focus | | • | Former Eastern Theatre Command head General He Weidong becomes second-ranked CMC vice-chairman | | | • | General Zhang Youxia promoted to first-ranked CMC vice-chairman despite being 72 years old |
| The Communist Party unveiled a major reshuffle in China’s top military leadership on Sunday, sending a clear signal that the People’s Liberation Army will be focused on Taiwan in the next five years and beyond. General He Weidong, who has a wealth of command experience in China’s eastern military districts, was made the second-ranked vice-chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission, with 72-year-old General Zhang Youxia promoted to first-ranked vice-chairman, after a vote by the party’s newly elected Central Committee. Read more |
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To keep track of the latest global news developments, follow daily coverage on our website or focus on news about China’s 20th party congress on our dedicated microsite.
In our next issue, we will look back at the Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit, which takes place in Hong Kong next week.
We welcome your feedback. Email me at globalimpact@scmp.com. Plus, be sure to check out our China news feed for the latest news and analysis.
All the best, | |
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