Indian Express : Russia-Ukraine war and the crises in Europe

 Indian Express <indianexpress@publisher-news.com>

Oct 21, 2022, 6:43 PM (17 hours ago)

Russia-Ukraine war and the crises in Europe

European economies are hurting badly. The Western coalition is fighting stresses. The war appears to be stalemated — but apparently not badly enough to force the warring sides to the negotiating table.

Written by Nirupama Subramanian

New Delhi | Updated: October 21, 2022 1:13:39 pm

Newsguard

France's President Emmanuel Macron, left, poses with Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz during a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of an EU summit in Brussels, 

Thursday, Oct. 20, 2022. (Olivier Hoslet, Pool Photo via AP)

The exit of Liz Truss as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom after just 45 days in office only adds an extra element of uncertainty in a region that was already in deep crisis. For the 27 heads of European Union nations gathered in Brussels on Thursday for a two-day meeting, post-Brexit Britain’s continuing woes, which they see as just desserts for its decision to leave the EU, are a side show. On their agenda is the war in Ukraine, and the energy crisis that has sent their own economies reeling.

Massive economic pain

Since the beginning of the war, Europe has undergone a massive strategic evolution, unthinkable until nine months ago. European nations buried deep differences and stood united as liberal democracies against Vladimir Putin’s aggression. They are now more committed to strengthening NATO and its premise of collective security and to the transatlantic partnership with the US than at any other time after World War II. Finland and Sweden are set to join the security grouping.

The decision by Berlin to shed seven decades of pacifism to strengthen its army, make more weapons, and send arms to Kyiv was a turning point. The EU has relaxed its immigration laws to accommodate refugees from Ukraine. Britain, one of Ukraine’s most vocal supporters, is an important member of the western alliance — but it is Eastern European EU members such as Poland, which usually do not have a voice, that are playing a proactive role.

The war has had serious consequences across the continent. The economic pain is increasing daily, and with no end in sight to the fighting, Europe is staring at a dark winter of energy shortages, high inflation, and swelling masses of angry, hurting people.

Forty per cent of Europe’s gas comes from Russia — Germany is biggest consumer — and even after the sanctions, EU countries were continuing with gas imports. Punitive cuts by Putin have, however, reduced supply by nearly 90 per cent. European leaders accuse Moscow of having “weaponised” gas supplies.

Nord Stream, the 1,200 km gas pipeline under the Baltic Sea, has remained unoperational since August, when Russia closed it down for maintenance work. In late September, there were leaks from the pipe after explosions, and a Danish investigation — the area falls in Denmark’s exclusive economic zone — revealed a 50-metre hole in the pipe. EU countries around the Baltic Sea fear the war may be moving geographically closer.

In Germany, inflation is riding at 10 per cent. Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently said his government would do “everything so that [gas] prices sink”. Earlier this month, Germany announced it would immediately implement a 96 billion euro plan to ease pressure on consumers from surging gas prices.

Four German think tanks — ifo Institute in Munich, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Halle Institute for Economic Research, and RWI-Leibniz Institute for Economic Research — that make joint twice-yearly forecasts on the German economy, cut their April growth projections from 3.7 per cent to 1.4 per cent, and for 2023, to -0.4 per cent from 3.1 per cent. In a joint statement, the institutes said soaring gas prices would push Germany into recession.

In Premium: |‘The chances of nuclear use are minimal. Both Russia & Ukraine are well aware of results’: DB Venkatesh Varma

Stern test for alliance

There is concern that economic pressures could reduce — and perhaps end — Europe’s staying power against Russia. The meeting in Brussels on October 20-21 hopes to firewall the alliance against this strain. “Division is not a luxury we can afford,” European Council President Charles Michel tweeted on Wednesday. “On our agenda: the energy crisis. We must intensify our three lines of action with the utmost urgency: reducing demand, ensuring security of supply, and containing prices.”

Some EU countries have been discussing a price cap on gas imports so they do not bid against each other for supplies. But others have reservations about a Europe-only mechanism, which could nudge suppliers to sell to those in other regions who are willing to pay more. Some want the price cap to be applied only to Russia; others want it for all gas suppliers. Michel expressed confidence that despite “differing national constraints”, Europe would approach the energy debate “constructively, mindful of our urgent collective interest”.

European diplomats insist that “the people are much ahead of their governments in their support for Ukraine”, and that they are prepared to sacrifice their comforts for the democratic and international principles they hold dear. That claim is likely to be tested soon — and the possible passage of one or both houses of the US Congress into Republican hands after the November midterms could add another moving part to the mix.

Putin’s nuclear threats

In a survey conducted by the European Council on Foreign Relations in 10 EU countries in May, most respondents blamed Russia for the war, and backed all round support to Ukraine — however, they were divided into what the Council called the “peace camp” and the “justice camp”.

The former wanted the war to end quickly, even at the cost of concessions by Ukraine. The latter camp believed that Russia must be punished severely. A third of all respondents were in the peace camp. A little more than a fifth were of the view that only Russia’s clear defeat could bring peace in Europe.

But Ukraine’s recent battlefield victories, and the Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities that have killed many civilians this month, have contributed to shaping the public mood. Chancellor Scholz is under immense pressure from coalition partners to step up weapons supplies to Kyiv at what is being seen as a turning point in the war. Last week, Germany rushed air defence systems to Ukraine as Russia rained missiles on its neighbour.

Putin’s nuclear rhetoric may also work as a unifier. His threat to use “all means available”, and the reference to “various means available” to defend Russian territory, have been understood as references to nuclear weapons. While opinion is divided on whether he would go as far as to actually use them, the threats have stoked more fear and insecurity in Europe, making it likely NATO will become even more relevant. The n-word also helps keep the US attention from wandering towards China.