Euronews : The Briefing : No More Peace in Europe

 

Online version | Was this email forwarded to you ? Sign up here Every week The Briefing takes you across the continent with just one click. No more peace in Europe By Michał Baranowski, Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund and Warsaw office director This morning the world woke up to a war in Europe. It is not a small war. The scenario playing out in front of our eyes even yesterday many of the top analysts deemed very unlikely. Russia is attacking targets not only in Eastern Ukraine, but across the country, in what military experts see as preparation for a full land offensive. We are in a fog of war, so not everything is clear, but Vladimir Putin told us time and time again what he was planning and what he wants to achieve. His declaration of war strongly suggests that this operation aims to forcefully change the government in Kyiv. This is going to be a bloody war – both for Ukrainians and for the Russian forces that cross into Ukraine. Ukrainian society is determined, and the Ukrainian army is much better prepared than in 2014. Ukraine will fight, even though for now, it will fight alone. What we are living is not, however, a war “in a faraway country, between people of whom we know nothing” to quote Prime Minister Chamberlain. We should listen to Putin, when he tells us that war in Ukraine is just the beginning. His ambitions now focus on Kyiv, but go far beyond the capital. He is attempting to rebuild Russia’s sphere of influence. He is demanding NATO pull back forces from Central and Eastern Europe to create a security grey zone. Finally, he is insisting American nuclear weapons be pulled from Europe, which would amount to removing America as a European power. Putin is using force and lies to destroy the current European security order. Putin has presented us with the biggest challenge since the end of the Cold War. How can Europeans pass this test? First of all, we need to acknowledge that with this war, the world has changed. The post-Cold War era of  cooperation followed by competition with Russia is over. We are now in the era of confrontation, whether we want it or not – because it takes only one side to wage war. Next, the Western democratic community needs to punish Russia. There is no question that it’s time to launch the most severe sanctions prepared for this contingency by the West. Russia has broken the basic tenets of international law, and therefore needs to be absolutely isolated. The authoritarian regime of Lukashenko in Belarus has joined Russia in this attack and needs to face the same sanctions. Third, the West needs to do everything to help Ukraine withstand this assault. Ukraine will need economic help and humanitarian support given the scale of attack. The Ukrainian government declared general mobilisation of forces. They understand that they will have to fight alone, but they need Western solidarity. Ukraine also needs weapons, there is no moral or practical case not to provide them now. Last, the West needs to prepare for a long period of confrontation with Russia. We must very significantly strengthen the countries of NATO’s eastern flank. With over 30,000 Russian soldiers in Belarus, and the ongoing war in Ukraine, the security of the Baltic states and Poland has deteriorated sharply. Russia’s heavy military presence in Kaliningrad and Belarus means that these NATO allies face Russian pressure from two directions. Overnight, these countries became front line states in a war.  Today, February 24, 2022 will be remembered as the end of one era and the beginning of another one. We all would prefer it not to be true, but it is. It is a reality that has to sink in and be understood across our western societies. We should also know that there is more to come. Ukraine is fighting today not only for its independence, but also for the freedoms and principles of the West. It is therefore in our best interest to support Ukraine, punish Russia, strengthen frontline countries and prepare for a long and unpredictable confrontation. THE LATEST ON THE INVASION FULL-SCALE WAR In the early hours of Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave orders to launch an invasion of Ukraine, arguing the “special military operation” was “inevitable” and “only a question of time.” The move hijacked a meeting of the UN Security Council. Shortly after, missile strikes, bombings and tank movements were registered in the eastern parts of the country. Explosions were later detected outside cities like Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Chuguev, Mariupol and Odessa. Putin warned that if other countries interfere with Russia’s operation, they will be met with “consequences that you have never experienced in your history.” CALL TO ARMS In response to the invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared martial law, cut diplomatic ties with Russia and vowed his country will not “give up” its freedom. He then took to Twitter to issue a call to arms: “We will give weapons to anyone who wants to defend the country,” he wrote. “Be ready to support Ukraine in the squares of our cities.” Zelensky also said Russian forces were trying to seize the Chernobyl nuclear plant. DEATH TOLL The invasion marks the largest military deployment, with ground, air and naval forces, since the end of World War II. Analysts warn the attack could spiral out of control and turn extremely bloody. At the time of writing, Ukrainian authorities had reported 40 dead soldiers and 10 soldiers in the country. Follow our live blog for the latest developments. KYIV DISPATCH Our correspondent Sasha Vakulina is reporting live from Kyiv, bringing us closer to the frantic situation on the ground. “No matter how resilient and how strong people try to be, this is the moment when of course they do start to panic,” she told us. “For many, the closest shelter will be the metro station, and I went to the metro station myself and I saw people there and, I have to say, it does look surreal, seeing people there packed with their suitcases, glued to their phones, trying to call their families.” Watch her report. HITTING HARD EU leaders flew to Brussels for an in-person emergency summit. On the table: a new, radical package of sanctions to punish Russia for violating Ukraine’s sovereignty. On Thursday morning, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the “massive” sanctions would block Moscow’s access to “key technologies” and cripple its ability to finance the invasion. “We will weaken Russia’s economic base and its capacity to modernise,” said von der Leyen. “We condemn this barbaric attack, and the cynical arguments used to justify it.”  INNER CIRCLE  The second raft of sanctions comes on the heels of a package approved earlier this week that slapped travel bans and froze the assets of 27 individuals and entities close to President Putin, including his defence minister and his chief of staff, as well as several commanders and “propagandists.” The penalties were also extended to the 351 members of the State Duma who voted to recognise the self-proclaimed people's republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent. MORE REACTIONS Speaking next to von der Leyen, Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, said the EU would support evacuation operations from Ukraine and provide more financial assistance to the country. Ylva Johansson, EU Commissioner for home affairs, had previously told us the EU was ready and “well prepared” to welcome a potential influx of Ukrainian refugees.  The European Parliament President Roberta Metsola and all the political groups condemned the invasion as “unjustified and illegal,” calling it an attack on the international model of democracy. In a joint statement, the 27 members of the European Council demanded an immediate ceasefire and an unconditional withdrawal of all forces. “We deplore the loss of life and humanitarian suffering,” they wrote. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the attack was a “brutal act of war,” describing it as “deliberate, cold-blooded and long-planned.” Stoltenberg confirmed NATO does not have any troops inside Ukraine and has no plans to send any. But, he noted, the Alliance will increase its presence on the eastern front. “It will be a new reality, a new Europe, after the invasion,” he said. “Russia has shut the door to a diplomatic solution.” GO DEEPER Follow our live blog and get the latest developments.