What Johnson’s Political Troubles Mean for U.K.-EU Relations

 What Johnson’s Political Troubles Mean for U.K.-EU Relations

Dec 15, 2021 | 17:09 GMT

(Leon Neal/Getty Images)

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s weakening political position will open the door to a de-escalation of disputes with the European Union because London will seek to avoid trade or supply chain disruptions during the holidays. Johnson’s political position has become increasingly fragile in recent weeks amid a succession of scandals that have generated discontent among the public and cast doubts within his Conservative Party about his government skills. This discontent became evident on Dec. 14, when 99 Conservative members of parliament voted against a plan to tighten COVID-19 restrictions in England, forcing the government to rely on support from the opposition Labour Party to approve it. This was the largest Conservative rebellion since Johnson’s landslide victory in the 2019 general election and took place amid U.K. media speculation that some party members are plotting to remove him from office. If Johnson is ousted, the future of U.K.-EU relations will depend...

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s weakening political position will open the door to a de-escalation of disputes with the European Union because London will seek to avoid trade or supply chain disruptions during the holidays. Johnson’s political position has become increasingly fragile in recent weeks amid a succession of scandals that have generated discontent among the public and cast doubts within his Conservative Party about his government skills. This discontent became evident on Dec. 14, when 99 Conservative members of parliament voted against a plan to tighten COVID-19 restrictions in England, forcing the government to rely on support from the opposition Labour Party to approve it. This was the largest Conservative rebellion since Johnson’s landslide victory in the 2019 general election and took place amid U.K. media speculation that some party members are plotting to remove him from office. If Johnson is ousted, the future of U.K.-EU relations will depend on the ideology of his successor.

A significant number of Conservative lawmakers are ideologically opposed to the new COVID-19 restrictions (which, among other things, introduced a “COVID pass” showing proof of vaccination or a recent negative test to access many indoor venues). Some, however, voted against Johnson’s government to protest recent scandals, including the revelation that some government officials held Christmas parties in December 2020 while the country was in lockdown. While the U.K. government has denied any wrongdoing, the revelation has prompted criticism about the government’s alleged double standards and its legitimacy to impose restrictions on society.

A large number of Conservative members of parliament oppose any restrictions that curtail personal freedoms and believe that the government should instead adopt a “live with COVID” strategy. This could make it difficult for the government to introduce further restrictions if infections continue to increase. 

The United Kingdom is likely to seek a truce with the European Union over the Northern Ireland protocol to avoid increasing economic uncertainty at a time when the government is weak. London and Brussels are currently discussing amendments to the protocol, which establishes customs controls in the Irish Sea. The European Union has proposed to significantly reduce customs paperwork and allow a larger number of goods (including medicines) to move freely between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, and the main obstacle to a deal is Londons’ demand that the European Court of Justice be removed from its arbitration role. The sides have yet to reach a deal, but in recent weeks, both have abandoned their threats to act unilaterally and impose trade sanctions on each other, which suggests that they want a compromise solution. According to European media, London and Brussels will soon announce that their Northern Ireland negotiations will take a break during the holidays and resume in early 2022, which means that no disruptions in trade between the European Union and the United Kingdom should take place during that period.  

In October, the United Kingdom’s chief Brexit negotiator, David Frost, said that unless Britain and the European Union reached a deal by early November, London would unilaterally suspend the Northern Ireland protocol. The United Kingdom has not acted on that threat. 

In early November, the European Union said that it was working on a series of punitive trade measures in case the United Kingdom suspended the protocol. However, Brussels later chose not to announce any measures. 

In mid-December, the United Kingdom granted additional licenses for French fishermen to fish on British waters after weeks of disputes with the French government. This suggests that London is also looking for a de-escalation of tensions with Paris.

Johnson’s ousting would trigger a leadership competition between Conservative figures that could change London’s EU policy direction. If Johnson’s position continues to weaken, there are several ways in which he could be replaced. Members of the Conservative party could request a confidence vote on Johnson’s leadership. To trigger this vote, at least 55 Conservative members of parliament would need to make the request to the party’s “1922 Committee.” While many Conservative lawmakers have publicly criticized Johnson, none have so far made official requests for his dismissal. Should this vote happen, and should Johnson lose it, the Conservatives would have to vote on a new party leader who would then automatically become the United Kingdom’s prime minister. Alternatively, Johnson could resign if he feels that his party has abandoned him. This would also trigger an intra-party vote to appoint a new leader and prime minister. Finally, Johnson could ask parliament to approve an early general election in an attempt to revalidate his premiership before the public. A driver for this decision would be to hold the vote before April 2022, when a series of unpopular tax hikes will enter into force. But with opinion polls suggesting that the Labour Party may win an early election, this is the least likely of the scenarios. 

There are no official candidates to replace Johnson as the leader of the Conservative Party should he resign or be ousted. However, U.K. media has suggested that Chancellor Rishi Sunak would be a popular candidate. While he is a Brexit supporter, he is also seen as a pragmatic politician that would prioritize keeping close trade and investment ties with the European Union. Media reports suggest that Foreign Secretary Liz Truss could also win the leadership contest. While Truss is seen as more similar to Johnson than Sunak when it comes to stoking disputes with the European Union for domestic political reasons, she has also pledged to build a “Global Britain” that relies on international trade for its economic welfare. This indicates she would also seek to preserve the EU-U.K. free trade agreement.

However, an eventual Conservative leadership contest is also likely to include candidates with a much more hawkish position on the European Union. The appointment of a new prime minister could thus still result in a worsening of EU-U.K. relations, which could eventually threaten the continuation of the free trade agreement and make it harder for Brussels and London to cooperate on issues ranging from defense to research and education.

STRATFOR