Why Russia-Ukraine Tensions Are So Hard to Defuse

 Why Russia-Ukraine Tensions Are So Hard to Defuse

Ukrainian servicemen work on a tank in Lysychansk, Eastern Ukraine, on April 7. Source: AFP/Getty Images

ByAndrew Langley and Anthony Halpin

April 8, 2021, 7:04 AM EDTUpdated onDecember 17, 2021, 7:57 AM EST

Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula ignited the tensest standoff between Moscow and the West since the Cold War. The region has been deadlocked ever since, with years of conflict between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists in the country’s east. By mid-November, the U.S. was warning European allies that Russia may be preparing to invade Ukraine, already massing 100,000 troops near its neighbor’s border in a re-run of a crisis that erupted in April.

1. What’s sparked the flare up?

The U.S. began raising the alarm with European Union counterparts about a buildup of Russian forces near the border with Ukraine, later sharing intelligence showing possible plans for a three-pronged invasion from Crimea, Russia and via Belarus involving as many as 175,000 combatants. Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency chief told the Military Times that a Russian assault could come by the end of January or early February. The Kremlin denied any intention to attack Ukraine, saying Russian troop movements on its territory were an internal matter. It accused the U.S. and NATO allies of stoking tensions with naval exercises in the Black Sea close to Russia’s border.

2. Haven’t we been here before?

Yes. Russia deployed troops to Crimea and its border with Ukraine in late March and early April amid a spike in fighting between the Ukrainian army and the Moscow-backed insurgents. Tensions subsided then after U.S. President Joe Biden called his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and offered a summit meeting that took place in Geneva in June. That prompted speculation Putin had used the crisis as a means to gain Biden’s attention amid reports the new U.S. leadership was focused primarily on China. After news of the latest buildup emerged, Putin said in a November speech that the U.S. and its allies were failing to take Russia’s “red lines” seriously and that Moscow needed “long-term security guarantees.” He accused NATO of provoking greater tensions by supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine and said the military alliance was waging a pressure campaign against him. Ukraine’s defense minister said on a November visit to Washington that he’d asked the Pentagon for more help defending its airspace and coast.

3. Why is all of this still a problem?

A 2015 truce accord ended the bloodiest fighting of the seven-year conflict, which has claimed more than 13,000 lives. But the terms have never been fully met and a lasting resolution remains elusive. The major stumbling block cuts to the core of the two former allies’ entire falling out: whether Ukraine leans eastward or westward. Protesters demanded a break from the nation’s Soviet past when they ousted Kremlin-backed Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. Putin justified his subsequent annexation of Crimea and support for the fighters in eastern Ukraine by saying he must defend Russian-speakers, wherever they are. Fearing encroachment into his backyard, he continues to oppose long-term goals now enshrined in Ukraine’s constitution -- including EU and North Atlantic Treaty Organization membership. 

4. What has the U.S. response been?

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There was a flurry of diplomacy in early December, sparked by a video call that Biden held with Putin Dec. 7. The U.S. president sought to send a clear message: Russia must not go ahead with an invasion of Ukraine as the U.S. fears it might, and would face massive economic sanctions if it does. Putin, meanwhile, wanted the U.S. to know that Russia won’t tolerate NATO expanding further east or deploying weapons in Ukraine. Foreign ministers from the Group of Seven nations warned Russia Dec. 12 to de-escalate its activities around Ukraine or face “massive consequences.” People familiar with the matter said the Biden administration was pushing European Union allies to finalize a broad package of sanctions against Russian banks and energy companies that could be imposed jointly with the U.S. if the Kremlin attacks.

Biden-Putin Call Leaves Unanswered Questions on Ukraine

Biden and Putin held a video call Dec. 7. Bloomberg Government’s Emily Wilkins has more.Source: Bloomberg

5. What’s been the sticking point?

Despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy coming to power pledging to bring lasting peace, he has little room to maneuver. The Kremlin wants its neighbor’s restive regions to gain autonomy that gives them an effective veto over major shifts in Ukraine’s orientation -- namely the Western integration backed by a sizable majority of its 41 million population. But granting the regions such powers would be tantamount to political suicide for Zelenskiy, who’s already struggling to tame the pandemic and meet other promises, such as curbing corruption. Putin, meanwhile, has repeatedly made clear he regards Ukraine’s ambition to join NATO as an existential threat and sees no reason to compromise now after weathering years of pressure from the U.S. and Europe over this issue. That’s why repeated diplomatic efforts by Germany and France to hammer out a resolution have failed.

Flashpoint

Tensions between Ukraine and Russia rise over separatist-controlled areas

Sources: Natural Earth; European Commission

6. What else does Russia want?

Russia demanded that NATO withdraw its forces to positions they occupied in 1997 as it set out sweeping proposals for a massive Western pullback in two draft security treaties presented to the U.S. government. Russia and all NATO states that were members in May 1997, before the first eastern European countries were invited to join the alliance, shouldn’t “deploy military forces and weaponry on the territory of any of the other states in Europe” that were not already in place on that date, according to one of the treaties published Dec. 17 by the Foreign Ministry in Moscow. The U.S. must also pledge to bar entry to NATO for ex-Soviet states such as Ukraine and Georgia and refuse to make use of their military infrastructure or develop bilateral defense ties with them, according to the second treaty. 

7. What’s the fear?

If U.S. warnings of an invasion are borne out, it would plunge the West and Russia into the worst confrontation since the Cold War ended. A Russian intervention on this scale to annex territory or even to overthrow the government in Kyiv would represent the most serious challenge to European security in decades, dwarfing the crisis triggered by Putin’s takeover of Crimea and the kind of unrestrained fighting that characterized the eastern Ukrainian conflict’s earlier days. Russia’s five-day war with Georgia, another former Soviet republic that turned its gaze to the West, began in a similar fashion in 2008 and ended in effective annexation of rebel areas by Moscow. 

8. What else can the West do about it?

The U.S., EU and U.K. have in recent years imposed several rounds of sanctions targeting Russian individuals and companies, hitting the country’s energy and banking sectors. While Russia downplays their impact, its economy has stagnated and its officials have pushed to have the punishments revoked. Other potential measures include targeting the billionaires who’ve grown rich under Putin’s rule, or making further efforts to derail the new Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany that’s currently awaiting approval by regulators. 

Bloomberg

The Reference Shelf

A Politico contributor argues the promise of NATO membership has undermined Ukraine’s security.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies shows satellite imagery of Russia’s military buildup.

A Bloomberg QuickTake on U.S. sanctions aimed at Russia.

Brookings Institution papers on the annexation of Crimea, and on the Biden Presidency and Ukraine.

A Chatham House paper on the 2015 accord.

— With assistance by Jake Rudnitsky