Fears of Libya violence as UN races to manage election postponement

 Fears of Libya violence as UN races to manage election postponement

All sides acknowledge 24 December vote cannot go ahead but there has been no announcement, and political vacuum looms

People in Sirte, which is under the control of Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar's forces, in November.

People in Sirte, which is under the control of Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar's forces, in November. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Patrick Wintour Diplomatic editor

Tue 21 Dec 2021 13.18 GMT

The United Nations is scrambling to manage the postponement of Libyan presidential elections set for 24 December as fears grow that a looming political vacuum will lead to renewed violence and economic chaos.

There has been no formal announcement on a postponement, but all sides acknowledge the vote cannot proceed, not least because a list of authorised candidates has yet to be published.

Libya has seen a year of relative calm since a landmark October 2020 ceasefire following almost a decade of conflict and the UN has been pushing for elections as part of a multi-pronged effort to cement the peace.

Tensions are building over whether the interim government of national unity can remain in office after its formal term expires on the 24th. Roadblocks and armed vehicles have also begun to appear in parts of the capital, Tripoli, and four major oilfields have been shut due to their occupation by militia.

The UN mission to Libya warned that developments in Tripoli did not bode well for maintaining stability and establishing the conditions for free and fair elections.

“The current mobilisation of forces affiliated with different groups creates tensions and increases the risk of clashes that could spiral into conflict,” it said in a statement. “Any disagreements on emerging political or military matters should be resolved through dialogue, particularly at this stage when the country is navigating through a difficult and complex electoral process that should usher in a peaceful transition.”

Fadel Lamen, a leading presidential candidate, said the position was very fluid and dangerous. “Some of us are trying to crystallise a new roadmap,” Lamen said. “There are different scenarios: a very short postponement, just a shift in the date to clarify the outstanding legal issues, such as a candidate’s qualifications, or a longer six-month delay, but once you go for such a long delay anything can happen.”

Stephanie Williams, the UN’s special adviser on Libya, has been conducting urgent consultations in the country in an attempt to craft an agreement on how it can maintain a semblance of momentum towards democracy.

A dispute between two Libyan bodies over responsibility for the delay has meant the announcement of the delay has itself been postponed.

The High National Elections Commission (HNEC), the technical body overseeing the elections, says it is the responsibility of the Libyan parliament, the House of Representatives, to make the announcement, but the house is refusing to meet at least until after election day, when it will announce its plans on how to proceed. Some members of the house have called for a new government to be installed, claiming the mandate of the interim government, formed in February to take the country through to elections, has expired.

Although Europe and the US have been fixated on the 24 December date for presidential and parliamentary elections for more than a year, no Libyan consensus on the legal framework for the elections, including the qualification criteria for candidates, was ever reached.

The HNEC has handed to the House of Representatives its still unpublished report on the eligibility of some of the candidates seeking to stand. Question marks have existed over three of the most prominent candidates: the renegade general Khalifa Haftar, leader of the self-styled Libyan National Army, which controls the country’s east and parts of the south; Muammar Gaddafi’s son Saif al-Islam Gaddafi; and Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, the interim prime minister, who pledged on taking the role that he would not stand in the presidential election.

The US ambassador to Libya, Richard Norland, has acknowledged there are political and legal obstacles to the elections going ahead and that new proposals, none of them ideal, are being discussed.

He also pointedly told Dbeibah he should not use the interim premiership as a base to campaign for the presidency.

Rival presidential candidates from the west and east met in Benghazi on Tuesday, issuing a joint statement that underlined the extent to which they are allied against Dbeibah, who they believe has abused his office to gain popular support.

Lamen said: “There is consensus that this corrupt government has to go.” But it is not clear who is empowered to form a new caretaker government.

Williams was the UN special envoy to Libya from March 2020 until January 2021 and then handed a roadmap to elections to her successor Ján Kubiš, but he quit in November after his disastrous hands-off approach gave the existing Libyan political class an opening to slow the progress to elections.

None of the substantive issues over necessary conditions for running an election were fully resolved, including an agreed legal framework, the constitutional checks and balances on a ruling president, and the eligibility criteria for vetting candidates.

As a result, it became increasingly likely that the elections, without any consensus on their basis, would lead to a disputed outcome. This could be disastrous, given the tinderbox conditions in a country controlled by dozens of armed groups including thousands of foreign fighters.

Williams returned to the job on 12 December, since when she has been privately urging various parties to revive the route to elections with a new timetable.

Her task will be to find new ways to reapply pressure on existing political bodies in Libya that have traditionally acted as spoilers, and persuade them to agree a new timetable and basis for elections.

She previously tried to go round the roadblock of the existing political class by appointing a 75-strong Libya political dialogue forum, but the credibility of that body fell apart soon after her departure.

The Guardian