After Russia's referendum, a path to Putin 5.0
On July 1, Russia finished a weeklong period of voting in a referendum on 200
amendments to the 1993 Yeltsin constitution. President Vladimir Putin had first
called for changes to the constitution in January, and, within a few months,
all the amendments were ready. Official figures heralded a triumph for Putin: a
65% turnout, with 78% voting in favor of the amendments and 21% against. Of
course, there were claims of ballot stuffing and vote fraud, as well as of
medical personnel and others being pressured to vote. But the amendments had
already been passed by the Duma (Russia’s legislature), so the plebiscite was
cosmetic — intended to boost Putin’s popularity and legitimacy during the
COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic downturn.
Nonresident Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and
Europe
The amendments include a ban on same-sex marriage, in
addition to stipulations that Russian laws supersede international law, that
the Russian language takes precedence over others, and that officials with high
national security responsibilities cannot have dual citizenship or own bank
accounts and property abroad. God is explicitly mentioned. Russian citizens are
prohibited from questioning the official historical narrative about the victory
in World War II. The new constitution generally embodies conservative social
values and a new emphasis on Russian nationalism.
But the most important amendment is the one that
resets Putin’s electoral clock. Instead of retiring in 2024 at the end of his
fourth term in office, he can now stay in power for another two terms — until
2036. At that point, aged 83, he will have been in power a decade longer than
Josef Stalin.
The question of what comes after Putin has been
answered, at least for now. It is Putin. But what would a Putin 5.0 or 6.0 term
look like? So far, the new constitution promises more of the same, with an
increasingly aging leadership. Indeed, some are already likening it to the late
Brezhnev era — domestic stagnation coupled with foreign policy activism.
MODERN RUSSIA IS STILL TAKING SHAPE”
The day after the referendum,
Putin thanked the country, making it clear that he would be
the guarantor of stability to protect his people during unsettled times:
Here we have the improvement of the
political system as well as social guarantees, strengthening of the
sovereignty, territorial integrity and, finally, our spiritual, historical and
moral values that link our generations. However, we must not forget one more
thing: from a historical perspective, it has been only a short time since the
dissolution of the Soviet Union, and, of course, modern Russia is still taking
shape. This is true for all aspects of our life: the political system, the
economy, and others. We are still very vulnerable in many ways; a lot, as they
say, was done in a hurry. We need internal stability and time to strengthen the
country and all its institutions. So thanks again to those who supported the
amendments.
Putin moved to extend his power indefinitely because
he wanted to quash the succession maneuvering that had been underway since he
was re-elected in 2018. Now, the elite must accept that he will remain in the
Kremlin. For those who fear for their political and economic future once he is
gone, this is a welcome move. For others, as public opinion data shows, the
prospect of decades with little change and limited opportunities for upward
mobility is disheartening. Only a quarter of the population says that it trusts
Putin. With the COVID-19 pandemic still in full swing, oil prices too low, and
GDP predicted to fall by as much at 10% this year, Putin faces serious domestic
challenges.
ECONOMIC REFORMS UNLIKELY
Foremost is the economy. After his re-election in
2018, Putin announced the National Projects, an ambitious $400 billion spending
plan. The aim is to boost living standards by 2024 and focus on 13 key policy
areas, such as health care, education, technology, and infrastructure. The
economic dislocation caused by COVID-19 has forced the Kremlin to scale back
these projects, but Putin is determined to show that Prime Minister Mikhail
Mishustin can deliver.
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The collapse in oil demand and prices, exacerbated by
the ill-advised oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia in March, has put
further strains on economy heavily dependent on hydrocarbon revenues to sustain
its budget. Demographic decline — exacerbated by a steady brain drain —
continues.
Putin has been reluctant to undertake significant
economic reforms which threaten vested interests or arouse popular discontent.
Is he any more likely in the next decade to pursue needed reforms that
diversify the economy away from dependence on oil and gas and create a more
modern state? Past performance would suggest that he is not.
FOREIGN POLICY ADVENTURISM
Putin’s newly-endorsed political longevity could also
affect Russia’s foreign policy. So far, the pandemic appears not to have
impacted Russia’s drive to reassert itself as a major power with global
interests and entitlement. Relations with the West remain brittle; there has
been no progress on ending the war in Ukraine; Russia continues to back Bashar
Assad in the Syrian civil war; and the pandemic has driven Russia and China
closer together. Putin has long been adept at seizing opportunities presented
to him by a disunited and distracted West, and he has already been in power
longer than most major international leaders.
Many of Russia’s assertive international moves are
undertaken on the cheap: the wars in Ukraine and Syria, and the involvement in
Venezuela and Libya, for instance. The growing use of mercenary forces run by
individuals close to the Kremlin means that Moscow can pursue its agenda — and
often thwart U.S. or European interests — without draining its state coffers
and arousing public opposition to sending Russia soldiers in harm’s way.
Putin may well pursue a more activist foreign policy
going forward, especially if the economic situation at home further
deteriorates. The “Crimea effect” — appealing to patriotism and blaming the
West for Russia’s economic ills — has long worn off, but the Kremlin could
undertake new ventures to distract public attention from economic hardship.
There could be more pressure on neighbors who are seen to challenge Russia,
such as Belarus. There could be more concerted efforts to take advantage of the
deep divisions in Europe over Russia policy and create a more united group of
countries — led by France — that are seeking a new reset with Russia.
Similarly, if U.S-European relations continue to deteriorate — or even if they
begin to improve if presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden wins the November
election — the Kremlin could more actively seek to benefit from those fissures.
Russia could also deploy its wide array of cyber and social media capabilities
to intensify its information wars with the West.
Russia’s ability to increase its international
influence will also depend on what other countries do. With the United States
withdrawing from global involvement — most recently from the World Health
Organization — Putin can increasingly position Russia as a multilateral leader
and responsible global stakeholder, and reinforce Russia’s reputation as a
pragmatic, status-quo power with which most of the non-Western world believes
it can do business.
Putin 5.0 could, therefore, ensure that Russia —
despite its limited economic capabilities (a per capita GDP the size of
Italy’s) and a military much smaller than that of the United States — becomes
an even more influential international player.
SURPRISES ARE STILL POSSIBLE
But will there be a Putin 5.0? Putin has not yet
committed to running for another term in 2024. The immediate goal of the
constitutional referendum was to end internecine power struggles focused on
succession, and, for now, these have subsided. This has strengthened Putin’s
hand.
But public opinion polls show that the Russian public
wants change. Putin may not be a lame duck, but it is not clear that Russians
would support another 16 years of his rule. As has been the case throughout
Russian history, things appear to be stable until suddenly they are not. Putin
likes to surprise, as was clear from his hastily-arranged constitutional
referendum. But he himself could face unanticipated challenges to his plan to
stay in power indefinitely.
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