US, China Should Pursue Peace, Not Military Brinkmanship
MAY 12, 2020
Neither
side wants to appear weak, but recent actions and rhetoric by both sides has
put all of us in greater danger of U.S.-China military tensions sliding into
armed conflict.
The
coronavirus pandemic is reshaping the U.S.-China relationship — but in the opposite of the
way that many expected. While the world hoped this pandemic might lead to more
cooperation between these two great powers, American and Chinese leaders
instead fell into a blame game and allowed their increasing suspicions, or even
enmity, to guide their decision-making. And while hostile leaders finger-point
at each other, a less-noticed series of military and policy actions by both
sides has put all of us in greater danger of U.S.-China military tensions
sliding into armed conflict. Tensions are increasing over intensified military
activities taken by both sides, how the virus is impacting each side’s
readiness to use military force, and the rising mistrust among both peoples.
But there is a peaceful way out of this spiral.
The COVID-19 pandemic broke out within the
context of what the American side already was calling great power competition.
That framing partly explains why Washington and Beijing believe each is seeking
to position themselves advantageously for the post-pandemic landscape. Each
side describes the other as being aggressive while justifying themselves as
merely responding to provocations, especially when it comes to military
affairs: the U.S. stresses that China is expanding its sphere of
influence in the Asia-Pacific region, and China believes that the U.S. is
determined to keep the PLA within the first island chain.
We have seen several stories declaring that the
pandemic is China’s opportunity to expand its claims in the South China Sea and intimidate Taiwan. Their conclusion is
that China, now recovering from the outbreak, is using the opportunity to
improve its position against neighboring countries and the United States, which
are still enmeshed in it. There are also reports in Chinese media of how
the U.S. military increased its activity in the South China Sea and
has sailed through the Taiwan Strait with higher frequency, and how Congress
passed a bill to support Taiwan’s
international relations, all of which occurred in March when China was
struggling with the coronavirus and the United States was as yet not widely
infected. Officials from both sides expressed their concerns in similar tones
after the sinking of a Vietnamese fishing boat. While the U.S. accused
China of “exploiting the distraction or vulnerability of other
states ” to expand unlawful claims and called for
refraining from actions that could “distract from the global response to the pandemic”,
Beijing urged Washington to “stop associating South China Sea issues with the
pandemic outbreak”.
Under the circumstances, neither side wants to appear
weak nor take the risk of slipping, even an inch. The back-to-back actions
taken by the two are an example. The People’s Liberation Army claimed to have
forcibly expelled one U.S. Navy
vessel, the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer Barry, as the response
to its “freedom-of-navigation operations” sail through the South China Sea’s Paracel Islands,
which was followed by the U.S. sending a
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At the same time, to prevent or limit the transmission
of the virus, both sides have implemented policies such as the cancellation of military exercises and
drills, the shutdown of most recruiting centers,
and the quarantine of troops deployed overseas, which could reduce available
human resources, field training, and proper equipment maintenance. The
inevitable degradation of readiness on both sides heightens military leaders’
anxiety and increases the likelihood of accidents like collisions of warships
and airplanes which could quickly result in a crossfire.
Instead of a calm and collaborative coronavirus
response, Beijing and Washington have increased suspicions and
hostilities. A Pew poll conducted three weeks ago
shows that Americans’ negative view of China is now at 66 percent, up from 47
percent in 2018. Both sides’ leaders are airing conspiracy stories of the
virus’s origin. In China, leaders have claimed COVID-19 was brought to
Wuhan by the U.S. Army. In the U.S., leaders have claimed it was
invented by China as a biological weapon. It is not surprising if front-line
commanders and pilots are influenced by these negative perceptions. Though no
one should question their professionalism during operations, the chances of
misinterpretation or overreaction caused by negative feelings cannot
be overlooked.
Related: COVID-19 Is Accelerating Trends in the US-China Relationship
Related: How China Sees the World (By H.R. McMaster)
Related: How China Sees the World (By H.R. McMaster)
Faced with the possibility of two nuclear powers
stumbling into a war, both sides must take precautions. First on the agenda
should be a serious effort to maintain and strengthen channels of communication
and negotiation between the U.S. military and the PLA. Issues to
be discussed include improving the existing hotline for rapid communications
during emergencies, achieving consensus on crisis management principles, and
clarifying different red lines in different areas and domains. If both sides
were more proactive in their outreach efforts, it could change the trajectory
of their global relationship. The pandemic provides a chance for them to
coordinate their responses to this global crisis. As both militaries have
helped hard-hit domestic communities, they can find ways to jointly assist
South Asian and Southeast Asian countries in combating the coronavirus. Once
the pandemic has ended, they could also exchange lessons and hold military
exercises on combating a serious global public health crisis bilaterally or
with neighboring countries.
Some readers may think these suggestions are
far-fetched. But we can’t turn a blind eye to the disastrous prospects should
we take no action. Rather, we can seize the opportunity to build much-needed
cooperation between the two militaries. This chance is clearly there, if both
sides are willing to take it.
Lyu Jinghua is a visiting scholar with Carnegie’s
Cyber Policy Initiative. Her research focuses primarily on cybersecurity and
U.S.-China defense relations. Lyu is a retired colonel from the Chinese
People’s Liberation Army.
·
Lyu Jinghua is a visiting scholar with Carnegie’s Cyber Policy Initiative.
Her research focuses primarily on cybersecurity and U.S.-China defense
relations. Lyu is a retired colonel from the Chinese People’s Liberation
Army. FULL BIO
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