A PROPOSED FRAME FOR A NEW
STRATEGIC CONCEPT FOR NATO
Fatih Ceylan | Turkey’s former Ambassador to NATO,EDAM Non Resident Fellow
Foreign Policy & Security 2020/02/EN
May 2020
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Foreign Policy & Security 2020/02/EN
A PROPOSED FRAME
FOR A NEW STRATEGIC CONCEPT FOR NATO
Fatih Ceylan | Turkey’s Former Ambassador to NATO, EDAM Non Resident Fellow
The NATO Heads of State and Government took the decision
to initiate a reflection process at the London Summit of 3-4
December 2019. In line with this decision NATO Secretary
General designated a Group of Experts to carry forward the
process on 31 March 2020.
This Group is expected to submit the outcome to Secretary
General to consult on the set of recommendations for a new
Strategic Concept to be adopted by NATO most probably
in 2021.
The purpose of this study herebelow is to contribute to the
reflection process already launched within NATO by offering
a blueprint in a synoptic form of a new strategic concept
for the Alliance. It should be seen as a food for thought for
the process and, therefore, does not deserve any further
attribute.
At their Summit meeting in ………. in……2021, NATO Heads
of State and Government approved the Alliance’s new
Strategic Concept.
NATO has been the most successful politico-military Alliance
for the last seven decades safeguarding the freedom
and security of its members against different threats and
challenges.The Alliance will continue to defend the shared
values of pluralistic democracy, liberty, human rights and
the rule of law. NATO has always been at the forefront of
the Euro-Atlantic peace and security based on a robust
community of shared values which make it unique and
indispensable.
It is the forum solidly representing the transatlantic bond
which lies at the core of its success and makes it relevant
and resilient for its members. This fundamental nature of
NATO has not changed and it must be preserved.
The security of Europe and that of North America is indivisible
as is the indivisibility of security for all of NATO’s members.
NATO will remain as the enduring transatlantic forum for
Allied consultations on any issues that affect their vital
interests, including all challenges posing risks and threats
for its members’ security, and for concerting their efforts in a
coherent way in fields of common concern.
The founding treaty of NATO, the Washington Treaty, is
a whole and must be implemented in its entirety. It is,
therefore, necessary not to dissect its provisions. In this vein,
compartmentalisation of its provisions should be avoided.
All of its provisions carry the same weight for all Allies.
The politico-military character of NATO is embedded in the
Washington Treaty and it remains indisputable.
The Alliance must take the necessary steps to give further
substance to its political dimension to complement and
support its measures in the defence field. This has become
necessary more than ever before to make NATO respond
better to the everchanging security situation, meet the
expectations of its populations, and render it readier, more
resilient and relevant.
READIER, MORE COHERENT, RESILIENT AND RELEVANT
I. INTRODUCTION
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The vision adopted in the post Cold War era that Europe
is whole, free and at peace is no more.
Since 2014 the rules-based international order has
been overtaken by events and this dealt a serious blow to
the security of the Euro-Atlantic area.
The current and anticipated security challenges facing
the Alliance constitutes a compelling need for NATO to
further reinforce its political role and responsibilities on par
with its defensive posture in and beyond the Euro-Atlantic
area.
To sustain its readiness, resilience and relevance, the
Alliance will have to explore further means of enhancing its
unity and solidarity as its main center of gravity to address
complex and challenging risks and threats.
In strengthening its political role, an inventory of potential
political contingencies in need of further consultations
should be initially made with a view to reinforcing the
political dimension of the Alliance.
The existing and prospective risks and challenges for
the Alliance in the coming decade and beyond the horizon
necessitate a renewed and in-depth analysis of geopolitical
and geostrategic landscape. This analysis should assess
both current and evolving risks and challenges as well as
opportunities which may arise.
The Alliance currently faces two main threats to the
Euro-Atlantic security from the East and the South.
Those multidirectional and multifaceted challenges will
continue to require a comprehensive approach comprising
both deterrence and defence as well as projecting stability
related work and activities. They must, therefore, be treated
as a whole on an equal footing.
The aggravation of the security situation affecting the
Euro-Atlantic area is caused by both state and non-state
actors and this will remain on the Alliance’a agenda in the
coming decades.
The aggressive actions of Russia in Ukraine which
undermined the sovereignty and the territorial integrity of
that country clearly demonstrated that Russia is no longer
a reliable partner for NATO. Although NATO intends not to
seek adversarial relations with Russia, the state of affairs
established between the Alliance and Russia before 2014
will not be achieved in the foreseeable future.
It is in this context that the Alliance will have to continue
implementing robust deterrence and defence measures
against Russia to safeguard the security and stability of its
members.
Implementation of such measures and seeking dialogue
with Russia on the future of the transatlantic security are
not mutually exclusive. Open channels of communication
with Russia should be sustained with a view to maintaining
and reinforcing the deterrence and defence posture of the
Alliance.
The current and future posture of NATO vis a vis Russia
should continue until Russia decides to join the European
family of nations, thus contributing to harmonious and
peaceful relations in the transatlantic area.
All forms and manifestations of radicalism and
extremism, notably terrorism, be it of religious or ethnic
nature, are a cause of grave concern for the Alliance and
its members.
Terrorism is the clear and imminent threat for the
Alliance and its members. It will continue to remain high on
the agenda of NATO. It is the most powerful weapon in the
hands of non-state actors aiming to disrupt individual liberty,
pluralistic democracy, human rights, the rule of law and the
way of life in the Alliance members. It is also used to project
instability by states to advance their hybrid warfare agenda
against the security and stability of the Euro-Atlantic area.
Terrorism neither recognises borders nor there
exists immunity against it like cyber and hybrid threats. It
is, therefore, a common area of concern for the Alliance
members and requires constant attention and vigilance.
It is, therefore, essential to take all the measures
individually and collectively to counter terrorism and
effectively address its root causes . To further contribute to
efforts in countering terrorism the Alliance should continue to
explore how it can better use its capacity in a more coherent
manner to rise up to this challenge. To that end a renewed
II. THE EVOLVING SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
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and more dynamic Road Map and Plan of Action Against
Terrorism to implement it beyond the current framework
should be developed.
Recent steps taken by China in the military and
intelligence fields should be under constant monitoring by
the Alliance. China, like Russia, should be engaged by the
Alliance to the extent possible with a view to developing
counter measures, as necessary, that have the potential to
undermine the Euro-Atlantic security.
Emerging security challenges such as disruptive
technologies, new forms of hybrid warfare, novel space
capabilities, robotics, artificial intelligence and ISR
capabilities already deployed or being developed by
adversaries and pandemics should guide Alliance efforts
and work in the future. The Alliance as a whole must remain in
a position to protect its technological edge when addressing
the current and evolving challenges in the security and
defence domains of direct concern for the prosperity and
stability of its populations and territory.
Despite setbacks in recent years to arms control,
disarmament and non-proliferation efforts, NATO should
continue to support arms control both in Europe and beyond
to maintain international peace and security. The priority in
this respect should be given to the extension of New START
Treaty between the U.S. and Russia. The means of involving
China in this process should be sought to expand the scope
of the Treaty for enhancing security and stability on a global
basis.
Unequivocal commitment by the Alliance members to
the Non-Proliferation Treaty is essential.
III. CORE TASKS AND OBJECTIVES
The tasks for NATO are enshrined in its founding
Washington Treaty. Its primary task and objective are to
safeguard the freedom and security of all its members by all
the means and instruments at its disposal.
The Alliance firmly represents a unique set of values,
committed to the principles of individual liberty, pluralistic
democracy, human rights and the rule of law. NATO is also
firmly committed to the purposes and principles of the U.N.
Charter.
The Alliance embodies the indispensable transatlantic
bond between Europe and North America since 1949. This
bond remains strong and should be preserved for sustaining
Euro-Atlantic peace and security. Recent events on a global
scale have once again demonstrated the clear need for
upholding and reinforcing the transatlantic link more than
ever before.
The security of all NATO members is indivisible. The
sense of equal security for all should guide all strands of
work and activities within the Alliance.
The principle of one for all and all for one is as valid and
relevant as ever. That requires solidarity in letter and spirit,
unity of purpose and action and fair burden-sharing as well
as role and responsibility sharing.
The era of benefitting from peace dividend provided by
the end of the Cold War is over and the Alliance has been
facing new and divergent challenges since 2014 from many
directions. It has become evident such challenges and
the like will continue to engage the Alliance for the coming
decades and they will not disappear from the security
landscape.
The need to act collectively in a coherent and
comprehensive manner for any risk and threat from any
direction will require foresight, solidarity, resolve, and
determination to act in the face of the current and evolving
challenges with full respect for international law.
The nature and scale of modern challenges necessitate
to leverage to the maximum extent possible enhanced
and active multilateralism. Absent mutually reinforcing
multilateral frames, it would prove impossible for the Alliance
to meet the full spectrum of its tasks and objectives.
The core tasks of NATO in modern times remain the same:
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a. Collective defence.
NATO members are bound by Article 5 of the Washington
Treaty committing each member to assist other members
against armed attack. This commitment is ironclad and
constitutes the backbone of the Alliance. NATO will
deter and defend against any threat of aggression, and
against current and evolving security challenges when
and where they threaten the fundamental security of
individual Allies or the Alliance as a whole.
NATO should be prepared to act decisively and swiftly
to surmount challenges it faces to defend its members
against different forms and manifestations of threats. It,
therefore, needs a more efficient and fast decision making process to be ready and resilient against divergent
sources of multidirectional and multifaceted challenges.
The novel decision making edifice should not be at the
expense of the fundamental consensus rule.
Readiness levels of Alliance forces should be under
constant review, an Enhanced Mobility Concept and
Doctrine should be developed and tested on regular
intervals and wider scales.
Sophisticated early warning capabilities such as ISR
are needed both for military and intelligence purposes.
The introduction and deployment of modern and
sophisticated capabilities across the services in this field
should proceed unabated.
New methods and practices should be sought and
implemented against the use of hybrid warfare and
cyber capabilities by adversaries, be they state or nonstate actors. The pool of individual and common assets
and capabilities should be strengthened and diversified
to counter cyber and hybrid threats. Innovative methods
and techniques will have to be developed and shared
among the Allies to surmount the challenge of identifying
attribution for cyber attacks.
Force, defence, and operational planning should come
under a single structure, thus creating synergy among
all defence related planning. This requires a structural
reform within the Alliance with a view to increasing the
efficacy of work on all pillars of defence.
The Level of Ambition of the Alliance should remain
intact against conventional and nuclear threats. In this
vein, deterrence will have to be based on an appropriate
mix of nuclear, conventional, missile, cyber, and space
capabilities. The space dimension of deterrence will
have to be elaborated in further detail.
As long as nuclear weapons exist, NATO will remain a
nuclear alliance. The supreme guarantee of the security
of the Allies is provided by the strategic and substrategic nuclear forces of the Alliance, particularly those
of the United States; the independent strategic nuclear
forces of the United Kingdom and France, which have
a deterrent role of their own, contribute to the overall
deterrence and security of the Allies.
b. Crisis Management
It is evident that inter and intra-state crises and conflicts
beyond the borders of the Euro-Atlantic area carry
actual and potential risks and threats to the transatlantic
security. It is, therefore, essential to detect, monitor and
contain such crises before they become conflicts with
spillover effects on the security of the Allies.
NATO’s success in managing crises is well proven.
The body of experience and practices adopted since
the Balkans crisis up to and including Afghanistan and
Iraq and the lessons learned from such operations and
missions are important building blocks to anticipate and
handle future potential tasks in crisis management.
NATO should be politically and militarily vigilant and
ready to more effectively use its toolbox to stem crises
affecting the security of Allies.
Recent challenges, both actual and evolving, make
it necessary for NATO to play a more prominent role
before, during and after conflicts. That would give NATO
the necessary space to improve its political role in times
of crisis.
The primary objective of NATO in crisis management is
to anticipate crises by investing more in early warning
and intelligence capabilities, including human resources,
at its disposal. This requires political will to employ an
appropriate mix of crisis management instruments at
an early stage. It is equally important to take additional
steps to expedite the decision making process within the
Alliance
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There should be fresh efforts to review NATO’s crisis
response manual with more emphasis on expediting
the decision making process without prejudice to the
fundamental consensus rule.
Expeditionary forces cannot be employed at the right time
and place without expedited decision making. Hence the
need for more political willingness and flexibility.
In the face of particularly pandemics, recognising no
borders, threatening the security and prosperity of Allies,
the members should place more premium by way of
placing more financial and human resources to expand
the scope of and resources for civil emergency planning
within NATO.
Enhancing civil preparedness for emergencies such
as COVID-19 pandemic is necessary for maintaining
resilience of the Allies. To that end the current Baseline
Requirements for Civil Resilience must be implemented.
To contribute to fight pandemics NATO should lay
out a new Concept based on lessons learned by the
recent COVID-19 contagion and Enhanced Baseline
Requirements complemented by a Pandemics
Contingency Plan. This has become more necessary
than ever before.
In managing crises the role of trained local forces is
undeniable. In that regard, such forces should be preidentified by NATO before a decision is made to employ
them. NATO should develop a pool of designated local
forces for different potential crisis areas when there
emerges a need to cooperate with such forces. It is
essential that there should be no room left for such forces
to pursue their own agendas, but to serve the overall
interests and objectives of the Alliance to contribute to
the security of the Euro-Atlantic area.
c. Cooperative Security
It is in the realm of cooperative security where enhanced
and active multilateralism plays a critical role. This also
necessitates to leverage more from NATO’s influence
and instruments with a global reach.
In the wake of current challenges the partnerships
with countries and the relevant international/regional
organisations have become more important than ever
before.
The existing overall structure for partnerships has
considerably served its purpose in the post Cold War era.
A novel structure is needed to achieve more to improve
the benefits of partnerships. Merges among different
layers of partnership structures and mechanisms should
be considered to accomplish a leaner and more effective
model of cooperative schemes. Regionally based criteria
should be developed and applied to merge certain
groups. This would contribute to further institutional
reform and save human and financial resources.
The current ties between NATO and the UN should be
tightened at a time of ever changing nature of risks and
challenges.
The NATO-EU partnership will remain unique and
essential. Further efforts could be contemplated to
make this partnership more effective. This should not be
achieved at the expense of the principles underlying it.
While furthering it, the increasing role of non-EU Allies
should be recognised.
The current and evolving security landscape necessitates
exploration of innovative ways and structures to increase
outreach activities to regional organisations such as
OSCE, the African Union, GCC, and the Arap League.
While streamlining the partnership structures and
mechanisms the establishment of a joint NATO-China
Working Group should be conceived. Ways should
also be explored to establish a liaison relationship with
ASEAN.
The recent setbacks in arms control, disarmament, and
non-proliferation fields should not be a pretext to step
back from this important domain of Alliance activity. The
future of these domains should continue to constitute a
standing agenda item for NATO.
The principles guiding the Open Door policy of NATO
are still valid. Based on those principles the Alliance
should develop a Plan of Action for the remaining Balkan
countries to accede to NATO latest by the year 2030.
The Alliance should facilitate conducive grounds for
those non-NATO Balkan countries to adopt its principles
to join NATO.
Accession of Georgia and Ukraine to the Alliance
will serve the overall political interests of NATO when
necessary conditions are in place. The decisions taken in
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that regard are and will remain valid. This aspect should
feature prominently in future endeavours of NATO.
The Alliance will remain relevant, ready and resilient as it
continues its reform, modernisation and transformation in
political, military and institutional domains.
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IV. CONCLUSION
We, the political leaders of NATO, are determined to uphold
the fundamental principles and values on which the Alliance
stands as well as the provisions of the Washington Treaty in
their entirety.
We are resolved to make NATO more relevant, coherent,
resilient and ready in performing all its functions and tasks
in the coming decades.
In addressing the current and evolving security challenges
the Alliance will play a key role in serving the shared values
and the security and defence of the transatlantic community.
NATO will continue to be the beacon of hope for its members
and partners in defence of common values of individual
liberty, pluralistic democracy, human rights and the rule of
law.
The Alliance will continue to play a key role in this century to
defend those fundamental values through unity, solidarity,
resolve and concerted efforts for international peace and
security
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