Welcome to Home & Away. We’ll begin with Iran, but as will become clear, there is no shortage of other topics to cover this week. The good news is that President Trump finally seems to have internalized (at least for now) two lessons: that using more military force will not yield better results when it comes to Iran, and that appearing anxious for an agreement only leads Iran’s new leaders to increase their demands. Which, by the way, is precisely what they have done. I have no idea how to say “kitchen sink” in Farsi, but Iran is asking for it: sanctions relief, frozen asset release, reparations, U.S. military withdrawal, lifting of the blockade, an end to military operations, you name it. So, “low-keying” (as the president describes it) is the way to go for now. The best thing Trump can do is signal he is prepared to live with high energy prices for months, even if it means Republicans lose the midterms – which, if the polls are to be believed, is likely to happen regardless. I am not sure it would make all that much difference if Republicans were to lose, as this president rules by executive order rather than legislation and would likely stiff-arm any investigations Democrats might launch. My guess is that it’s a question of when, not if, the United States and Iran reach a deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Iran will reduce its demands at some point, as its economy is a mess. We may be talking weeks, even months, but we will get there. The U.S. blockade will be lifted as long as Iran allows transit. There will be some mechanism for charging for use of the Strait and a degree of sanctions relief. The nuclear talks will begin but move at a snail’s pace; the ceasefire will be intermittent and incomplete. This looks to be the next normal for a part of the world that is anything but. Bare Cupboard One reported reason for the Trump administration’s decision to back off renewing hostilities is the reality of depleted munitions stocks. The Iran war is proving to be costly by just about any and every measure, but one consequence of expending so many critical munitions is that U.S. inventories are now dangerously low. This is worrisome for Ukraine, Europe, and Taiwan alike. The “fault” here is less the Iran war per se than the failure of the U.S. military to adapt adequately to new technologies and new styles of warfare, and the inability or unwillingness of the U.S. defense industrial base to treat this as a crisis and massively ramp up production. This is a failure long in the making, one shared by multiple administrations, Congress, the armed services, and the large defense companies. A revolution in military affairs is needed, one in which we move away from small numbers of expensive manned systems to much larger numbers of inexpensive unmanned systems. Portfolio Rebalancing Another consequence of the Iran war is that countries of the Middle East have learned the hard way that dependence on the United States is a mixed blessing. The Trump administration launched the war against Iran with little consultation or buy-in from local countries and has shown itself unable to protect its partners from Iranian drone and missile attacks. Countries in this predicament have three options. They can find new partners, become more self-reliant, or accommodate their powerful neighbor. It increasingly appears that the Gulf states are choosing to do all three. The result will not be a post-American Middle East so much as a region where U.S. influence is much diminished. The most noteworthy development in this regard is the newly announced defense pact involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. My sense is Iran (the unnamed reason for the pact) will take this new grouping seriously, as Turkey sees itself as a major power in the region (and is prepared to act accordingly) and Pakistan is a potential provider of nuclear know-how to Saudi Arabia. In the near term, this pact increases the odds we will move toward some kind of political settlement. Bored with Peace The Trump administration has a pattern of over-promising and under-delivering. The latest example is the declared “success” of U.S. diplomacy in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has walked away from the announced accord, wanting no part of any Gaza withdrawal until Hamas fully disarms. Which is another way of walking away from any deal, as Hamas will never fully disarm and, even if it were to do so, there would be no way of verifying it. I am sorry to disappoint those readers who were counting on the Board of Peace to actually deliver peace here or anywhere else. War and Peace The war in Ukraine has increased in intensity in recent weeks. The good news is that Ukraine has frustrated Russia’s advance on the ground and has meaningfully taken the war to Russia-occupied Crimea and to Russia proper. The bad news is that Ukraine is increasingly unable to defend itself against Russian missiles, which are causing death and destruction on a daily basis. This is where the U.S. munitions shortage matters, as we don’t have the Patriot air-defense missiles to provide even if we were willing to (which is uncertain at best). Indeed, President Trump has, for some reason, backed off his stated willingness to allow Ukraine to produce Patriots under license. Even going ahead with this would not help for years, but the hesitancy is just the latest sign that this president, for reasons unknown, remains reluctant to incur the wrath of Vladimir Putin. What should we do? First, we should make sure Ukraine has all the intelligence it needs to target Russian missile factories and weapons depots. If you can’t shoot down individual missiles, why not stop them from being produced and used at current rates? Second, we ought to increase sanctions on Russia, although the likely means for doing so (the pending legislation in the Senate named for Lindsey Graham) is problematic as it would empower this president to impose additional tariffs on our friends. And as if another reason were needed, another argument for bringing the Iran war to an end (or at least reopening the Strait of Hormuz) is that doing so would bring down global energy prices, in effect a sanction on Russia. The United States should also rescind its previous diplomatic offer (the 28-point peace plan) to Russia and Ukraine, which was nakedly pro-Russian. Instead, we should circle back to our previous stance (one jettisoned at Putin’s request at the 2025 Alaska summit) and call for a clean ceasefire in place, something that, if accepted, would stop the fighting without rewarding Russian aggression. Go Left Young Man Here at home, the rise of the political left continues. The outcome of the Democratic senate primary in Michigan was telling. Abdul El-Sayed is an impressive political athlete despite his objectionable positions on the Middle East – (Why is it so hard for the emerging American left to accept an Israel based on the 1967 borders, call for a two-state solution that would bring into existence a democratic Palestinian state, and condemn terrorism?) – and his association with the likes of Hasan Piker. The idea that the Democrats would choose someone from this wing of the party, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, to be their standard bearer in 2028 is imaginable as that is where the enthusiasm is. The center of the party, be it the congressional leadership, the DNC chair, or several of the potential presidential candidates, seems with few exceptions (Rahm Emanuel for one) lacking in energy, ideas, and political courage. One interesting by-product of the rise of the far left is that it reduces any incentive for Republicans to move to the center and shed the hold that MAGA has on the party. With the election of far-left Democrats, the conventional wisdom is that a Republican candidate can stay on the far right and still defeat a Democratic candidate associated with open borders, hostility to the police, slashed defense spending, higher taxation, etc. I don’t know if this is true, but the next phase of American politics could turn out to be one in which the game is increasingly played out in the end zones rather than around midfield. Sooner rather than later, Democrats would be smart to place limits on the size of their tent and who is welcome to come and stay under it. A final political point is that the new big thing across the political spectrum seems to be a backlash against AI, fueled by a fear of job loss and opposition to massive data centers. Anyone doubting this need only take note of the decision by the Republican governor of Texas to follow the lead of the Democratic governor of New York and place a moratorium on the construction of new data centers. It is quite possible AI and related issues will occupy center stage in the run-up to 2028. The Sporting Life The big news in sports (other than my consistently inconsistent golf game, the details of which I will spare you this week) is the Boston Red Sox. They are the hottest team in baseball. I don’t quite get it. They don’t look that strong on paper, yet they keep winning on the field. I need a French philosopher to explain to me why something that is working in practice cannot work in theory. Meanwhile, the Yankees are the walking-wounded and are unlikely to go anywhere in the postseason unless Aaron Judge returns, which may or may not happen. I don’t know about Medicare for all, but the Bronx Bombers clearly need help before they bomb. The summer practices for the NFL are now history. The Giants’ defense looks impressive, especially their top draft choice Arvell Reese. The defense would look a lot more impressive, though, if they had also drafted Caleb Downs, but that is the Cowboys’ good fortune and the Giants’ loss. The offense looks a bit suspect, although it did come on in recent days as Jaxson Dart, their man-about-town quarterback, seems to have found his rhythm. Pre-season games start any day now, and the actual season gets under way in a month, which means we will know soon enough whether my wager that the G-men will make the playoffs was wise. All I can say is that the Knicks spoiled those of us who continue to live in the Democratic People’s Republic of New York City, so we are expecting big things this year. As always, some links to click on. And feel free to share Home & Away. Richard Haass in the news
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